MOSCOW (MRC) -- OPEC trimmed its world oil demand forecast for the last quarter of 2021 due to the Delta coronavirus variant, saying a further recovery would be partially delayed until next year when consumption will exceed pre-pandemic rates, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report it expects oil demand to average 99.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2021, down 110,000 bpd from last month's forecast.
"The increased risk of COVID-19 cases primarily fueled by the Delta variant is clouding oil demand prospects going into the final quarter of the year," OPEC said in the report. "As a result, second-half 2021 oil demand has been adjusted slightly lower, partially delaying the oil demand recovery into first-half 2022."
Governments, companies and traders are closely monitoring the speed that oil demand recovers from last year's crash. A faster return could boost prices and challenge the view that the impact of the pandemic may curb consumption for longer or for good.
Despite the downward revision to the fourth-quarter, OPEC said world oil demand in the whole of 2021 would rise by 5.96 million bpd, virtually unchanged from last month. The growth forecast for 2022 was adjusted to 4.15 million bpd, compared to 3.28 million bpd in last month's report and an estimate of 4.2 million bpd given by OPEC sources during the group's last meeting on 1 Sept.
"The pace of recovery in oil demand is now assumed to be stronger and mostly taking place in 2022," OPEC said. "As vaccination rates rise, the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be better managed and economic activities and mobility will firmly return to pre-COVID-19 levels."
As per MRC, US petroleum consumption recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but there has been a marked shift from consumer-facing sectors towards industry and freight transportation, mirroring the uneven economic recovery. The total volume of petroleum products supplied to domestic customers climbed to 20.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, according to the Energy Information Administration. Volumes were down by less than 300,000 bpd (1.4%) from the same month in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, and were actually 200,000 bpd (1.1%) above the pre-pandemic five-year average for 2015-2019.
As MRC informed earlier, recyclers in Southeast Asia were heard operating with low capacity utilisation in the film grade high density polyethylene (HDPE) market due to COVID-19-led lockdown measures. Market sources also said persistent bottlenecks at ports in Asia and some maintenance-related plant closures are likely to hurt the supply of petrochemicals during the week of Aug. 30-Sept. 3.
We remind that Southeast Asian polyethylene terephthalate (PET) recycling companies will continue facing challenges with the availability of raw materials, due to the low collecting and processing rate, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to MRC's ScanPlast report, June estimated HDPE consumption in Russia decreased to 125,900 tonnes from 128,300 tonnes a month earlier. Domestic producers raised their exports, while some producers' output decreased. Russia's overall HDPE shipments to the Russian market totalled 675,670 tonnes in the first six months of 2021, down by 6% year on year. Production increased by 12%, whereas imports fell by 33%.
MRC