Potential US refined oil product export ban would challenge already constrained global markets and refining systems

MOSCOW (MRC) -- A proposed US refined product export ban would save US consumers at the gasoline pump but pose significant challenges and costs to US and global refining systems, according to a recent analysis from Wood Mackenzie, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Using its Refinery Supply Model, Wood Mackenzie estimates that a proposed US oil product ban could save US consumers USD5 B in gasoline prices. It would also increase USD2 B in distillate costs to European trading partners and erase USD30 B in earning from US refiners, while boosting earnings for refiners abroad.

“Our models show that the potential ban would save US consumers on gasoline, but any potential savings would be based on new global trade routes being established efficiently, which is not a guarantee,” said Alan Gelder, VP Refining, Chemicals & Oil at Wood Mackenzie. “Prices could go higher if there are disruptions in this process, eroding US consumer savings. In the long-term, US refineries could see lower future investments, which threatens future US supply."

Wood Mackenzie estimates that a US refined product export ban would create a 1.4 MMbpd distillate gasoline supply gap globally and would decrease US crude runs by 1.5 MMbpd, primarily affecting Gulf Coast refiners. The US would still require gasoline imports to meet demand.

To fill this supply gap would require record export levels from China, Russia and the Middle East. “There is enough global capacity to cover US exports to Europe and Latin America, but it would require extraordinary circumstances, record exports and elevated refinery utilization levels from China, Russia and the Middle East,” said Raul Calzada, Research Analyst, North America Refining Assets. Caldaza added: “Refined products from China would have to more than double their 2021 totals to fulfill European demands.”

We remind, China's diesel exports in September surged to their highest in more than a year while aviation fuel shipments were the most in 29 months as refiners rushed to cash in on robust export margins. Exports of diesel fuel last month more than doubled from a year earlier to 1.73 MMt last month, the highest monthly rate since July 2021, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
That was up from 830,000 tons in August and 780,000 tons a year ago.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asian Paints has approved the setting up of a manufacturing facility for VAE (vinyl acetate ethylene emulsion) and VAM (vinyl acetate monomer) in India for a proposed investment of approximately Rs. 2,100 crores (USD250 million) over a period of three years, said the company.

Asian Paints has received approval from its board to set up a 100,000 tonnes/year vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) unit and a 150,000 tonnes/year vinyl acetate ethylene (VAE) emulsion line.

"An amount of approximately Rs21bn (USD253.8m) would be invested by the company over a period of three years, including the cost of land to be acquired," it said in a statutory disclosure to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on 20 October.

The proposed project is a key backward integration project for the company, it said but refrained from providing details regarding the project location and commencement dates for the two plants.

The investment is subject to the company entering into definitive agreements, including technology license agreement for manufacturing VAM and VAE and obtaining the necessary regulatory and other approvals, Asian Paints said.

The company plans to use licensed technology from US-based Kellogg Brown & Root for its VAM facility, it added.

The company currently imports its VAE requirement and once operational, the plants would help in import substitution, he added.

We remind, Asian Paints reported a consolidated net profit after minority interest of ?782 crore, lower-than-expected during the second quarter of the current fiscal, up about 31% as compared to ?596 crore in the year ago quarter. Meanwhile, its revenue from operations rose over 19% to ?8,457 crore from ?7,096 crore year-on-year (YoY).

Asian Paints is a global paints company with operations in 15 countries with 27 paint manufacturing facilities.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Covestro’s net income fell by 97.5% year on year in the third quarter, strongly impacted by high energy and raw material prices, said the company.

Q3 group sales rose year on year as a result of exchange rate movements and a “considerably higher price level, especially in Europe”, the company said in a statement.

“The main reasons for the decline in earnings were lower margins, since the group was able to offset the sharp rise in raw material and energy prices only to a small extent by a higher selling price level,” it said.
The fall in total volumes sold also reduced earnings in the third quarter.

The company has narrowed its guidance for 2022 that it issued on 29 July. The company now anticipates that EBITDA will be between EUR1.7bn and €1.8bn (previously: between EUR1.7bn and EUR2.2bn).

We remind, Covestro AG (Leverkusen, Germany) broke ground in Antwerp, Belgium for a new world-scale production facility for the manufacture of aniline. With the Covestro breaks ground in Antwerp for new aniline plant.

We remind, Covestro has now received the internationally recognized ISCC Plus mass balance certification for its Leverkusen and Dormagen sites. Together with the Krefeld-Uerdingen site, which was already certified a year ago, the company can now supply its customers with large product volumes from renewably attributed raw materials from all three Lower Rhine sites in Germany. These are selected polycarbonates, components for polyurethane (PU) rigid and flexible foams, PU coating and adhesive raw materials, thermoplastic polyurethanes (TPUs) and specialty films. They are characterized by equally good quality and properties as their fossil-based counterparts.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Oil refiner Valero Energy said it expects the Biden administration to continue releasing oil from the U.S. emergency reserve through year-end and will continue buying barrels, said Reuters.

President Joe Biden last week announced a plan to release 15 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) - part of a record 180 million-barrel release that began in May. The United States is ready to tap reserves again next year if needed, he said.

Reserves released in the early days of the program were primarily sour crude, or crude with higher sulfur content, but more recent sales included more low-sulfur, sweet oil.

Valero sees value in buying sweet crude for its refining system, President Lane Riggs said on Tuesday. The refiner currently tops the list of companies that have received barrels from the U.S. reserve.

Riggs added that he expects some restocking of the SPR next year. Biden announced a plan to replenish stocks when U.S. crude is around $70 a barrel, a level he said would still allow companies to profit while being a good deal for taxpayers. The U.S. benchmark was around USD85 on Tuesday.

Valero reported bumper profits that zoomed past Wall Street estimates, helped by discounts on high-sulfur, sour crude that boosted margins.

We remind, Valero Energy Corp plans to operate its 14 refineries between 90%-93% of their combined total processing capacity in the third quarter. The top end of the company's operational plans are near the 94% the company's refineries operated at in the second quarter when Valero saw billions in profits on increased demand because of the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic amidst reduced global refining capacity. Gary Simmons, executive vice president and chief commercial officer, said demand for motor fuels continued at a record pace in June.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- DOMO Chemicals, a leader in polyamide-based engineered material solutions and services, is set to present its entire range of high-performing TECHNYL solutions to a global audience for the first time at the upcoming K 2022 show in Dusseldorf, Germany, said the company.

Climate protection and the circular economy are key themes of K 2022, which takes place between October 19-26. The event will serve as a platform to share experiences with stakeholders across the entire value chain, and innovations that will help create a safer and more sustainable plastics and polyamides industry.

As well as exploring DOMO’s latest circular innovations, visitors to K 2022 will also be able to discover more about the company’s highly ambitious sustainability objectives and collaborations through their Xperience external pavilion OA Hall 4 in booth 04.3. In addition, DOMO will also be showcasing its innovative Service Hub simulation and testing capabilities.

We remind, Jindal Films has signed an agreement for the acquisition of 100% of the shares in Italy-based nylon film specialist DOMO Films Solutions (DFS) from DOMO Chemicals. DFS is a major European producer of nylon films (both biaxially-oriented BOPA and cast extruded CPA) for flexible packaging in food, pharma, medical, and other industrial sectors.

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