MOSCOW (MRC) -- China's August gasoline, gasoil and jet exports recovered 27.3% to 2.59 million mt in September from a 13-month low at 2.03 million mt in August, but left fewer export quotas for Q4, reported S&P Global with reference to data from the country's General Administration of Customs late Oct. 18.
The country's total exports of the three products between January and September dipped 1.5% year on year to 33.7 million mt, according to the data.
This brought the export quota availability for October-December at 3.3 million mt, suggesting a further reduction in 2021 outflows, unless new quotas are issued, sources said.
Market sources expected Chinese oil companies would suspend exporting gasoline and gasoil in November and December following a month-on-month reduction in October due to tight supply in the domestic market, while export quotas were running out.
Moreover, it was unlikely that Beijing would allocate additional quotas for the remainder of the year, leaving oil companies with little choice but to save quotas for exporting jet fuel, which face poor demand in China, sources said.
China's September gasoline exports have recovered from a 30-month low of 568,406 mt in August, to 920,000 mt in September, up by 61.9% on the month. This followed the new quota allocation in August, which enabled the refineries to resume exports. This mostly included PetroChina's refineries. But the gasoline exports were still 20.8% lower from last year's 1.16 million mt.
Gasoil outflows also recovered by 43.3% to 780,000 mt last month, from more than a six-year low of 544,480 mt in August. The exports were, however, 34.9% lower from last September at 1.2 million mt.
Despite the year-on-year fall in September exports, the total gasoline exports were still up by 1.5% to 11.79 million mt over January-September. The exports of gasoil were also 10.9% higher at 15.72 million mt over the same period. Meanwhile, the 17-month low throughput in September with higher gasoline and gasoil exports have resulted in tight supplies in domestic market, which pushed up prices.
China processed 13.7 million b/d of crude in September, extending a downward trend by edging down 0.7% from August levels, data from National Bureau of Statistics on Oct. 18.
As MRC informed earlier, China's crude oil imports fell 4.7% on the month to 10.03 million b/d in September, accrding to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, or GAC, on Oct. 13. The reduction indicated weak momentum for imports for the rest of the year, analysts said.
We remind that China's oil consumption is likely to peak around 2026 at about 16 million barrels per day and that of natural gas by around 2040, said a top executive of Sinopec Corp. in September 2021.
We also remind that in August 2021, China Petroleum and Chemical Corp, also known as Sinopec, the world's petrochemical major, launched the first phase of the Gulei refining complex in Zhangzhou city in China’s southeastern Fujian province. The refining complex, a 50:50 joint venture between Sinopec’s Fujian Petrochemical Company Ltd and Taiwan Xuteng Investment Company Ltd, invested 27.8 billion yuan (USD4.28 billion) in the first phase. That will result in an 800,000 tonnes per annum ethylene plant, a 600,000 tonnes per annum styrene unit and seven other downstream petrochemical units, Sinopec said.
Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.
According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,638,370 tonnes in the first eight months of 2021, up by 10% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 989,570 tonnes in the first eight months of 2021, up by 30% year on year. Deliveries of homopolymer PP and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas shipments of injection moulding PP random copolymers decreased significantly.