Imports of PE in Kazakhstan grew by 10% in January - November 2020

MOSCOW (MRC) - Imports of polyethylene (PE) in Kazakhstan increased by 10% in the eleven months of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019 and amounted to about 162,400 tonnes. The greatest increase in demand accounted for high density polyethylene (HDPE), according to MRC analytics.

PE imports to Kazakhstan reached 8,400 tonnes in November, compared to 14,700 tonnes a month earlier, local companies increased purchasing PE two times polymers in Russia. Overall PE imports totalled about 162,400 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020, compared to 143,300 tonnes a year earlier. Purchases of HDPE increased significantly, while imports of other types of polyethylene decreased.

The structure of PE imports by grades looked the following way over the stated period.

November imports of high-density polyethylene decreased to 6,900 tonnes against 12,100 tonnes, Russian producers decreased their export sales to the local market. Overall HDPE imports totalled 134,200 tonnes in the eleven months of 2020, up by 17% year on year.
November LDPE imports decreased to 800 tonnes from 1,800 tonnes in October, several Russian producers decreased their shipments to the local market. Overall LDPE imports reached 16,700 tonnes over the stated period, down by 21% year on year.

November linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) imports reached 600 tonnes versus 800 tonnes a month earlier. Overall output of these products exceeded 11,400 tonnes in January-November 2020, up by 1% year on year.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- BASF is planning to carry out maintenance work early in March at its 300,000-metric tons/year toluene diisocyanate (TDI) plant at Ludwigshafen, Germany, market sources have told OPIS, said Chemweek.

"The facility is expected to be in planned turnaround from early March until the end of May, but we don't know the exact dates of the turnaround," a source said. BASF declined to comment. "We do not comment on plant maintenance or run rates," a company spokesperson said.

Another source speculated that TDI production might start to slow from the site from the end of February in preparation for the turnaround. This will result in lower toluene consumption than in recent months, according to Eleanor Dann, principal toluene analyst at IHS Markit.

"Whilst the turnaround for TDI production will reduce consumption of TDI-grade toluene, this will not necessarily result in an additional 10,000-15,000 metric tons of length for the toluene market as supply is likely to be adjusted in knowledge of the outage," said Dann.

BASF had declared force majeure on 31 August 2020 after experiencing technical problems. After several attempted restarts, it lifted the force majeure at its TDI plant on 30 November, a company spokesperson confirmed.

As MRC informed earlier, BASF says its 420,000-metric ton/year steam cracker in Ludwigshafen, Germany is continuously running and has not caused any interruption of supply to its customers. Earlier, several media outlets reported that unscheduled flaring started on 13 January at the northern part of the Ludwigshafen site and was expected to last until 17 January and that an unspecified unit was shut, which "was not the case", as per the company's letter received by MRC.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

BASF is the leading chemical company. It produces a wide range of chemicals, for example solvents, amines, resins, glues, electronic-grade chemicals, industrial gases, basic petrochemicals and inorganic chemicals. The most important customers for this segment are the pharmaceutical, construction, textile and automotive industries.
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MOSCOW (MRC) -- Stolt-Nielsen subsidiary Stolt Tankers says it has been commissioned by BASF to help design and build a new inland chemicals vessel able to operate during periods of extreme low-water levels on the Rhine river to increase security of supply for BASF's chemicals site at Ludwigshafen, Germany, reported Chemweek.

The river, a key waterway for the transportation of chemicals in Europe, has been regularly impacted by low water levels during extended periods of dry weather in recent years. Existing chemical barges have been unable to fully load cargoes, increasing transport costs, and delaying products, Stolt says.

The proposed new barge will be able to pass a critical point in the river near Kaub, Germany, while carrying 650 metric tonnes of cargo in a water depth as shallow as 1.60 meters. This amount of cargo at this water depth is significantly more than any other tanker available today, it says. The vessel will have a transport capacity of about 2,500 metric tons in average water depths, approximately double that of conventional inland vessels, according to Stolt.

The tanker will be built by Mercurius Shipping Group with delivery scheduled for 2022. Stolt Tankers will operate the vessel exclusively for BASF, it says.

“Following our experience with the low water levels of the Rhine in 2018 and based on our assessment that such events may occur more frequently in the future, we have taken a whole range of measures at the Ludwigshafen site to increase the security of supply for production,” says Uwe Liebelt, BASF’s European site/Verbund management. “An important element of our considerations was to have a ship that can still reliably transport substantial quantities even at the lowest Rhine levels,” he says.

The inland tanker will have 10 stainless steel storage tanks, a unique draft, and “set a new mark for the transport of cargo on the River Rhine, especially when water levels are low,” says Stolt Tankers president Lucas Vos.

The main objective for the vessel’s development was to provide a high load-bearing capacity coupled with a shallow draught and light weight, according to Stolt. The barge will be 135 meters in length and 17.5 meters wide, with a hydrodynamically optimized hull, an adapted propulsion system, and three separate loading systems. It will be powered by three electric motors, fed by latest generation diesel generators with exhaust gas after-treatment.

As MRC informed earlier, BASF says its 420,000-metric ton/year steam cracker in Ludwigshafen, Germany is continuously running and has not caused any interruption of supply to its customers. Earlier, several media outlets reported that unscheduled flaring started on 13 January at the northern part of the Ludwigshafen site and was expected to last until 17 January and that an unspecified unit was shut, which "was not the case", as per the company's letter received by MRC.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

BASF is the leading chemical company. It produces a wide range of chemicals, for example solvents, amines, resins, glues, electronic-grade chemicals, industrial gases, basic petrochemicals and inorganic chemicals. The most important customers for this segment are the pharmaceutical, construction, textile and automotive industries.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Overall polypropylene (PP) imports into Belarus rose in the first eleven months of 2020 by 5% year on year to 104,900 tonnes. At the same time, only homopolymer of propylene (homopolymer PP) accounted for the increase in demand, according to MRC's DataScope report.

November PP imports into the Republic of Belarus dropped to 9,400 tonnes from 11,600 tonnes a month earlier. Local companies decreased their purchases of injection moulding propylene copolymers in Russia. Overall imports of propylene polymers reached 104,900 tonnes in January-November 2020, compared to 99,800 tonnes a year earlier; demand only for homopolymer PP increased, whereas demand for propylene copolymers decreased.

The supply structure by PP grades looked the following way over the stated period.

November imports of homopolymer PP dropped to 7,600 tonnes from 7,700 tonnes a month earlier, purchases of injection moulding homopolymer PP in Russia decreased. Overall imports of homopolymer PP reached 76,600 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020, up by 13% year on year.

November imports of propylene copolymers to Belarus were 1,800 tonnes versus 3,900 tonnes a month earlier, local companies significantly reduced their procurement of injection moulding block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymer) from Russian producers. Thus, overall imports of propylene copolymers reached 28,300 tonnes in January-November 2020, down by 12% year on year.

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MOSCOW (MRC) -- In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global demand for petroleum liquids will be greater than global supply in 2021, especially during the first quarter, leading to inventory draws, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

As a result, EIA expects the price of Brent crude oil to increase from its December 2020 average of USD50 per barrel (b) to an average of USD56/b in the first quarter of 2021. The Brent price is then expected to average between USD51/b and USD54/b on a quarterly basis through 2022.

EIA expects that growth in crude oil production from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+) will be limited because of a multilateral agreement to limit production. Saudi Arabia announced that it would voluntarily cut production by an additional 1.0 million b/d during February and March. Even with this cut, EIA expects OPEC to produce more oil than it did last year, forecasting that crude oil production from OPEC will average 27.2 million b/d in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020.

EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production in the Lower 48 states—excluding the Gulf of Mexico—will decline in the first quarter of 2021 before increasing through the end of 2022. In 2021, EIA expects crude oil production in this region will average 8.9 million b/d and total U.S. crude oil production will average 11.1 million b/d, which is less than 2020 production.

EIA expects that responses to the recent rise in COVID-19 cases will continue to limit global oil demand in the first half of 2021. Based on global macroeconomic forecasts from Oxford Economics, however, EIA forecasts that global gross domestic product will grow by 5.4% in 2021 and by 4.3% in 2022, leading to energy consumption growth. EIA forecasts that global consumption of liquid fuels will average 97.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021 and 101.1 million b/d in 2022, only slightly less than the 2019 average of 101.2 million b/d.

EIA expects global inventory draws will contribute to forecast rising crude oil prices in the first quarter of 2021. Despite rising forecast crude oil prices in early 2021, EIA expects upward price pressure will be limited through the forecast period because of high global oil inventory, surplus crude oil production capacity, and stock draws decreasing after the first quarter of 2021. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average USD53/b in both 2021 and 2022.

As MRC informed previously, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency"s (IEA) statement.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
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