Global oversupply of polyethylene and polypropylene challenges margins

MOSCOW (MRC) -- A surge in new plastics chemical capacity from low-cost producers in North America (NA), the Middle East and China is driving an oversupply of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), pressuring margins and potentially altering the global competitive landscape, according to new analysis from IHS, reported Hydrocarbonprocessing.

IHS estimates that more than 24 MMt (million metric tons) of PE capacity will be added globally between 2015 and 2020. It is estimated that over one-third of that capacity will come from the US. This will significantly increase the US net-export position for PE, PP and other chemicals, and could rebalance the global chemical trade flows that have favored the Middle East for decades.

"The surge of shale gas-derived feedstock has enabled NA polyethylene and polypropylene producers to achieve a level of cost-competitiveness that is unprecedented," said Nick Vafiadis, global business director of polyolefins and plastics, IHS Chemical. "In the near-term, this excess capacity is good news for NA converters, which will be more competitive due to the increased competition associated with PE capacity expansions. However, on the producer side, economics will be challenged in the near term as global capacity expansions exceed demand growth and pressure margins."

"Chemical producers are clearly looking to take advantage of continued low natural gas and natural gas liquids prices in the US, which is enabling the significant expansion of these gas-based projects," said Chris Geisler, director, chemical consulting at IHS Chemical.

IHS asserted that beyond NA, China is also growing its influence as a key, low-cost provider of PE, due to its added production from coal-to-olefins (CTO) technology. The country is expected to add approximately 17 MMt of new PE/PP capacity during the next five years, further driving market volatility.

In Europe, imports of PE from the Middle East in 2016 have surpassed 2015 numbers, as the region continued to see strong demand and offered attractive net-backs for Middle East producers, IHS said. High-density polyethylene (HDPE) import figures for January and February 2016 were the highest of the last eight years at 148 Mt, and exports were the lowest for the same period at only 42 Mt. IHS said a similar, but less pronounced, trend is occurring for other PE grades as well.

"According to our IHS Chemical forecasts, we expect Asian pricing for PE to remain depressed for the remainder of 2016. With European producers giving little margin away, this will mean netbacks from the Middle East to Europe will remain attractive in the coming months," Mr. Vafiadis said. “The net result will mean PE imports will continue to arrive in Europe at relatively high levels from the Middle East."

He said that low oil prices could make the environment even more attractive for new plastics applications, which will drive new innovations in PE/PP technology and applications.

We remind that, as MRC informed earlier, PE demand is forecast to rise by approximately 3.7% pa between 2013 and 2018, at a slightly higher level than its growth during the 2003-2013 period, as per GlobalData's report.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Sabic has inaugurated a new research facility at the Brightlands Chemelot Campus in Geleen, the Netherlands, said the producer in its press release.

The official opening was done by the Governor of the Limburg Province Theo Bovens and Peter Borman, Director Regional Technology Affairs Europe at SABIC. The inspiring state-of-the-art research centre supports an extension of Sabic’s research capabilities in the area of innovative chemistry and materials, supporting the company’s vision to become the world leader in the chemical industry.

Bert Groothuis, Director Corporate Sustainability Europe said: "This research centre is the latest milestone in Sabic’s innovation journey, and combines our expertise in chemicals, polymers and excellence in innovative application development. SABIC continues to focus on innovation in chemistry and develop new and sustainability solutions together with customers and partners, which are being used in several markets, including transportation, packaging and building industries."

He continued; "A great example is the development of a new product based in light weight foamed polyolefins, specifically developed for bumper applications for the automotive industry, with benefits such as improving fuel economy and reducing CO2 generation, noise and vibration and increasing safety and harshness (NVH) control. Our Technology & Innovation colleagues also developed so-called ‘renewable polymers’ for the packaging of for instance beverages, based on renewable feedstocks that are not competing with the food chain."

Bert Kip, CEO Brightlands Chemelot Campus, shared the developments within Brightlands and the region: "With Sabic’s new research building, as well as some 300 Sabic scientists now active, the campus community will develop further. We are on our way to turning this community into a European material hotspot for businesses and research institutes with new and unprecedented opportunities to grow and innovate."

As MRC reported previously, Sabic has recently broadened its Sabic PCG portfolio for healthcare with the addition of a new LDPE grade to help the global IV packaging industry benefit from consistent and reliable supply. The new grade, SABIC LDPE PCG06 is typically for use in semi-rigid plastic bottles obtained from the Blown Fill Seal (BFS) process to package a variety of Large Volume Parenteral (LVP) solutions such as saline or dextrose.

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) ranks among the world's top petrochemical companies. The company is among the world's market leaders in the production of polyethylene, polypropylene and other advanced thermoplastics, glycols, methanol and fertilizers.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Dow Chemical's polyethylene (PE) expansion at its Freeport, Texas, complex is on track for a mid-2017 startup, a Dow representative said Thursday, reported Apic-online.

"The performance plastics derivative investments are progressing along well and are on track for a synchronized start-up of the new ethylene unit," the representative, who asked not to be named, said.

Dow's construction of its world-scale steam cracker is 50% complete, with startup expected in mid-2017, the company said in its Q1 earnings call last month.

The Freeport complex currently has a 640,000 mt/year of polyethylene capacity and is expected to add 1,050,000 mt/year of LDPE and LLDPE, S&P Global Platts data showed.

The 1.5 million mt/year ethylene capacity cracker being built at Dow's Freeport petrochemical complex will use ethane as its main feedstock but feature up to 30% of initial propane flexibility, Dow said.

Four derivative plants and a bi-modal gas phase debottlenecking will be synced with the startup of the cracker, the company said in an earnings call last month.

"Three of the derivative units associated with the ethylene plant are on schedule to start at the same time as the cracker," the representative said, adding that the fourth unit will come online about 12 months after commissioning of the ethylene plant.

As MRC wrote before, in 2012, three major chemical companies: Dow Chemical, Formosa Plastics, and Chevron Phillips Chemica,l had unveiled their expansion plans in North America basing on deposits in the Marcellus Shale Formation in New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. One of the upcoming projects of Dow Chemical basing on attractive price of shale gas is propylene project in Freeport, Texas.

The Dow Chemical Company is an American multinational chemical corporation. Dow is a large producer of plastics, including polystyrene, polyurethane, polyethylene, polypropylene, and synthetic rubber.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- South Korea's Lotte Chemical is expected to restore normal runs at its naphtha cracker in Yeosu in about two weeks after technical problems led to cuts in operating rates at the 1 million tonnes per year (tpy) unit, trade sources said, as per Reuters.

The petrochemical maker cut the operating rates to about 75 percent earlier this week, but it was unclear what the operating rates had been before the cuts as the cracker had undergone a month-long maintenance, and restarted operations earlier this month.

A Lotte Chemical spokesman was not available for comment. "The downtime will result in a demand lost of about 45,000 tonnes of naphtha," a Singapore-based trader said.

Although the volumes were small, traders said it would still hurt the sellers as they have been struggling under high stockpiles for most of the year.

Lotte Chemical operates another 1 million tpy cracker in Daesan and the unit is operating at full capacity, the sources said.

As MRC informed earlier, Lotte Chemical Corp. has finalized the takeover of Samsung Group’s chemical units.The company said that it paid for money to acquire Samsung SDI Chemical on Apr. 29 and completed the acquisition of Samsung Group’s chemical businesses in about six months after the announcement of "Big Deal" in October 2015.

Established in 1976, Lotte Chemical has been solidifyng its position by localizing cutting-edge petrochemical technologies. Among the high-quality products produced by Lotte Chemical through its efficient processes are ethylene, HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE, PP, functional resin, EG, SM, PIA, PET, etc. Lotte Chemical’s products are being distributed to 152 countries around the world. With the acquisition of Pakistan’s PTA in 2009, Artenius in the UK in 2010 and Titan Chemical Corp., Lotte Chemical is now able to efficiently supply excellent products to an increasing number of countries. The company is further accelerating its efforts to strengthen its global competitiveness by establishing overseas branches in Hong Kong, Russia, and USA, along with the sales corporation in China for active sales activities both in domestic and abroad.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Thiland's PTT Global Chemical Pcl planned to boost sales in Southeast Asia to offset weak demand from China, the company's biggest overseas market, said Reuters.

PTT Global, the petrochemical flagship of Thai top energy firm PTT Pcl, planned to increase exports to the region to 10-15 percent over the next two years from 5 percent now, Chief Executive Supattanapong Punmeechaow told a news conference.

Sales to China are expected to fall to 10 percent by 2018 from 19 percent now, he said, adding potential new markets include Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, which have high demand for plastics. About 70 percent of PTTGC's petrochemical products are sold domestically, while the rest are exported, Supattanapong said.

PTTGC, Thailand's largest petrochemicals maker, currently has a production capacity of 8.75 million tonnes a year and runs a refinery with a crude and condensate refining capacity of 280,000 barrels per day.

Despite a 16 percent decline in first quarter earnings, PTTGC's net profit this year would be higher than in 2015 due to a rise in capacity in the second half and planned reduction in operating costs by around 1 billion baht versus 630 million baht last year, Supattanapong said.

PTTGC is expanding its petrochemicals capacity and plans to build a new naphtha cracker in Map Ta Phut in the eastern province of Rayong with an annual capacity of 500,000 tonnes ethylene and 261,000 tonnes of propylene, the company said in a statement. Construction of the new cracker is expected to start in 2018 and begin commercial operations in 2020, it said.

As MRC informed earlier, PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) is likely to shut an high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant for a maintenance turnaround. A source in Thailand informed that the plant is expected to be taken off-line in early-June 2016. It is slated to remain under outage for around 15 days. Located in Map Ta Phut, Thailand, the plant has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year.

PTT Global Chemical is a leading player in the petrochemical industry and owns several petrochemical facilities with a combined capacity of 8.45 million tonnes a year.
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