India will be world's biggest oil demand growth driver through 2030

India is expected to be the largest driver of global oil demand growth between 2023 and 2030, narrowly taking the lead from top importer China, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The world's third-largest oil importer and consumer is on track to post an oil demand increase of almost 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) between 2023 and 2030, accounting for more than one-third of the projected 3.2 million bpd of global increases in the period, the IEA said in a report released at the India Energy Week in Goa.

The agency forecast India's demand would reach 6.6 million bpd in 2030, up from 5.5 million bpd in 2023. "India will become the largest source of global oil demand growth between now and 2030, while growth in developed economies and China initially slows and then subsequently goes into reverse in our outlook," it added.

The single largest basis of India's oil consumption will be diesel fuel, accounting for almost half of the rise in the nation's demand and more than one-sixth of total global oil demand growth through to 2030, the IEA said. Jet fuel is poised to grow 5.9% annually on average but this will be from a low base compared with other countries, it added.

"In the case of India, compared with China or other parts of the world, the Indian economy still continues to need more transport fuels so we expect India will continue to grow in transportation fuels. So that's something different from countries like China," Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA's director of energy markets and security, said on the sidelines of the conference.

Still, the electrification of India's vehicle fleet will lead to a more muted 0.7% annual growth average through 2030 for gasoline, the IEA said. New electric vehicles and energy efficiency improvements in India will avoid 480,000 bpd of extra oil demand from now to 2030, it added.

To meet this demand, India is expected to add 1 million bpd of new refining capacity over the seven-year period and this will increase its crude imports further to 5.8 million bpd by 2030, the IEA said. "India is moving to the right path in terms of adding large additional refining capacities," Prasad Panicker, chairman of Indian refiner Nayara Energy ESRO.M3 said at the conference.

He added that Indian gasoline demand will not peak for "at least the next 20-25 years". G Krishnakumar, the chairman of state-run refiner Bharat Petroleum Corp BPCL.NS, said that petrochemical demand for the company will also be a factor in India's oil consumption increase, as demand growth for petrochemicals is "directly proportional to the gross domestic product of the country."

An executive from India's top refiner Indian Oil Corp IOC.NS said on Tuesday at the conference that growth in all oil product sales are expected to rise in the fiscal year to March 2025. The IEA report estimated India's oil inventories were at 243 million barrels, with 26 million barrels held at strategic petroleum reserves sites while the rest are industry stocks.

We remind, GAIL India is looking to allot Rup 30,000 crore of investment in the succeeding three years for pipelines, city gas distribution projects, existing petrochemical projects, equity contribution in group firms, and operational capex. It also anticipates polymer sales to rise twofold and natural gas transmission volume to increase by 12% in FY 2024. (1 crore=10 M, 1 lakh=100,000).

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MRC -- A consortium led by Exxon Mobil Corp which controls all oil production in Guyana is pumping about 645,000 bpd in the South American country, up from about 400,000 bpd in late 2023, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Guyana has emerged as the world's fastest-growing new oil province in a decade with discoveries of more than 11 billion barrels of oil and gas by Exxon and its partners Hess Corp HES.N and CNOOC Ltd.

Exxon said that all three platforms currently operational are producing above their initially estimated capacities. Liza Destiny, Liza Unity and Prosperity are currently pumping about 160,000 bpd, 250,000 bpd and 230,000 bpd, respectively, it said.

The group has said it could develop up to 10 offshore projects in the country and has proposed budgets of about $40 billion for six projects so far, of which $29 billion have been spent, Exxon said.

The group has said its fourth, fifth and sixth oil projects - Yellowtail, Uaru and Whiptail - would have a production capacity of 250,000 bpd each, bringing oil output in Guyana to over 1.2 million bpd in 2027.

We remind, ExxonMobil is planning to invest up to $15bn in a greenfield petrochemical project as well as new carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities in Indonesia. The Indonesian government earlier this week signed an agreement with ExxonMobil to study the possibility of the petrochemical project which would include polymer production units.

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Plastiverd, a Spanish company specializing in polyethylene terephthalate (PET) production, has articulated plans to maintain a stable production level at its PET plant located in El Prat de Llobregat, situated in the province of Barcelona, Spain, starting from the end of February, said Chemanalyst.

The company aims to sustain this production stability for commercial reasons, although the exact duration of this production load remains undisclosed. The El Prat de Llobregat plant boasts a production capacity of 210 thousand tons of PET per year.

Earlier reports indicated that Plastiverd had recommenced production in January at its PET plant in El Prat de Llobregat. The restart followed challenges related to workforce shortages prompted by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Importantly, January's production revival transpired without any technical hindrances, and the workforce seamlessly resumed their duties.

PlastiVerd became part of the Cristian Lay Group conglomerate in April 2014, following its acquisition from La Seda de Barcelona. The acquisition, valued at around EUR 15 million, encompassed not only the PET plant but also included a facility for the production of ethylene oxide and ethylene glycol, boasting a capacity of approximately 200 thousand tons per year. La Seda de Barcelona, the previous owner, operates PET plants across Spain, Turkey, and Italy, along with a recycling facility in Italy. Additionally, LSB holds a significant stake in the Portuguese company Artlant PTA.

The decision by Plastiverd to maintain stable PET production aligns with the company's strategic commercial objectives. While the specific duration of this production continuity remains unspecified, the commitment to stability underscores Plastiverd's dedication to sustaining a consistent output in its PET operations.

It is noteworthy that the resurgence of production in January was prompted by the successful resolution of workforce-related challenges, mitigating the impact of the ongoing pandemic on operational efficiency. The absence of technical impediments during this period underscores the resilience and operational preparedness of Plastiverd's PET plant.

As a subsidiary within the Cristian Lay Group conglomerate, Plastiverd's endeavors in PET production contribute to the conglomerate's broader portfolio of operations. The acquisition of PlastiVerd in 2014 expanded the conglomerate's footprint in the petrochemical sector, encompassing not only PET production but also ethylene oxide and ethylene glycol manufacturing.

The broader context of La Seda de Barcelona's operations, which included PET plants across multiple countries and a recycling facility, signifies the diversified interests within the petrochemical industry. The conglomerate's stake in the Portuguese company Artlant PTA further exemplifies its strategic positioning within the European petrochemical landscape.

We remind, in the first quarter, Swiss company Equipolymers is planning to maximize the utilization of its polyethylene terephthalate (PET) plant in Sckhopau, Germany, aiming to achieve 100% capacity. Market sources have indicated that both production lines, with a combined capacity of 335 thousand tons of PET per year, are currently operational and functioning near full capacity.

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In the first quarter, Swiss company Equipolymers is planning to maximize the utilization of its polyethylene terephthalate (PET) plant in Sckhopau, Germany, aiming to achieve 100% capacity, said Chemanalyst.

Market sources have indicated that both production lines, with a combined capacity of 335 thousand tons of PET per year, are currently operational and functioning near full capacity.

Previously, it was reported that Equipolymers had decreased the load at its PET plant in Sckhopau, Germany, in November of the preceding year. The plant, designed with a capacity of 335 thousand tons per year, experienced reduced workload in November 2022 due to a decline in production margins. During this period, one production line was offline, and the other line was operating at reduced capacity, reflecting the impact of the challenging market conditions on production operations.

The latest developments from Swiss company Equipolymers point to a strategic intent to optimize the production output of its polyethylene terephthalate (PET) plant located in Sckhopau, Germany. With plans to achieve 100% utilization in the first quarter, Equipolymers is positioned to leverage its production capacity and meet the potential surge in demand for PET products.

The decision to increase utilization at the PET plant reflects Equipolymers' strategic positioning in anticipation of market trends and potential shifts in demand for PET-based products. By aiming for full capacity utilization, Equipolymers demonstrates a commitment to optimizing operational efficiency and meeting prospective market demand effectively.

In contrast, the prior reduction in workload at the PET plant in Sckhopau, Germany, shed light on the impact of challenging market conditions on production operations. The decision to reduce the load in November 2022, resulting in one production line being offline and the other operating at reduced capacity, underscored the influence of production margins on operational decisions within the chemical production landscape.

The nuanced interplay between market conditions, production margins, and operational decisions underscores the complexities inherent in the chemical production sector, where strategic adjustments are made in response to prevailing economic factors and market dynamics. Equipolymers' recent decision to maximize the utilization of its PET plant reflects an agile approach to adapting to market conditions and proactively positioning itself to meet potential shifts in demand for PET products.

As Equipolymers prepares to optimize the utilization of its PET plant in Sckhopau, Germany, the industry watches closely to gauge the potential implications of this strategic move on the chemical production landscape and the broader market dynamics. The proactive stance adopted by Equipolymers serves as a testament to the company's adaptability and responsiveness to dynamic market conditions, positioning it to effectively navigate potential shifts in demand and capitalize on emerging opportunities within the PET market.

We remind, Plastiverd, a Spanish company specializing in polyethylene terephthalate (PET) production, has articulated plans to maintain a stable production level at its PET plant located in El Prat de Llobregat, situated in the province of Barcelona, Spain, starting from the end of February. The company aims to sustain this production stability for commercial reasons, although the exact duration of this production load remains undisclosed. The El Prat de Llobregat plant boasts a production capacity of 210 thousand tons of PET per year.

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On 1 Feb 2024, Honeywell announced results for 4Q and 2023 that met or exceeded the company's original full-year guidance, said the company.

The company also provided its outlook for 2024 and, separately, announced that CEO Vimal Kapur will succeed Darius Adamczyk as Chairman of the Board in Jun 2024 and William S Ayer will become independent Lead Director in May 2024. The company reported 4Q 2023 year-over-year sales growth of 3% and organic sales growth of 2%, led by another quarter of double-digit organic sales growth in commercial aviation. Operating margin contracted 290 basis points to 16.8% and segment margin expanded by 60 basis points to 23.5%, driven by expansion in Performance Materials and Technologies and Aerospace.

Earnings per share for 4Q 2023 was $1.91, up 26% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share was $2.60, up 3% year over year. An adjustment to its estimated future Bendix liability at the end of the year drove the majority of the difference between earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share. Excluding a 13-cent non-cash pension headwind, adjusted earnings per share was up 8%. Operating cash flow was $3.0 bn with operating cash flow margin of 31.3%, and free cash flow was $2.6 bn with free cash flow margin of 27.4%, led by a reduction in working capital. For the full year 2023, sales increased 3%, or 4% on an organic basis.

Operating income grew 10% with operating margin expansion of 120 basis points, while segment profit grew 8% with segment margin expansion of 100 basis points. Honeywell reported full-year earnings per share of $8.47 and adjusted earnings per share of $9.16. Honeywell also announced its outlook for 2024.

The company expects sales of $38.1 bn to $38.9 bn, representing year-over-year organic growth of 4% to 6%; segment margin expansion of 30 to 60 basis points; adjusted earnings per share of $9.80 to $10.10, up 7% to 10%; operating cash flow of $6.7 bn to $7.1 bn, and free cash flow of $5.6 bn to $6.0 bn. Sales amounted to $36,662 M in FY 2023, compared to $35,466 M in FY 2022. Cash flow from operations totalled $5340 M, compared to $5274 M. Sales amounted to $9440 M in 4Q 2023, compared to $9186 M in 4Q 2022. Cash flow from operations totalled $2955 M, compared to $2366 M.

We remind, Honeywell announced the availability of technologies and digital solutions to enable customers in Asia Pacific to produce renewable fuels from multiple sources of renewable feedstocks, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.
Refiners are facing market changes as the drive toward sustainability accelerates to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is imperative for companies to adopt ready now technologies that can help them produce low-carbon, sustainable fuels while maximizing available resources, reducing waste, and meeting their sustainability goals.

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