MOSCOW (MRC) -- Saudi Arabia has crafted a complex OPEC+ deal with a view to punishing investors that have bet on falling oil prices but could inadvertently lend long-term support to the rival U.S. energy industry, OPEC+ insiders and market watchers said, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.
On Sunday, Saudi Arabia pledged to cut its oil output by 1 million barrels per day (bpd), or 10%, in July on top of existing output cuts from OPEC and its allies. With the new Saudi reduction, the group has agreed to take some 4.6 million bpd off the market in July, equivalent to 4.6% of global demand of 100 million bpd.
OPEC+ also agreed on Sunday to extend the group's existing supply cuts of 3.66 million bpd into 2024.
In response, oil prices rose nearly USD2 a barrel early on Monday to USD78 per barrel . Analysts said the gains are only the beginning and the cuts will steadily deepen a global supply shortfall that could push prices towards USD100 a barrel.
"This market needs stabilization," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Sunday, calling his surprise decision to deepen Saudi production cuts "the icing on the cake" for the deal.
Prince Abdulaziz has repeatedly expressed anger and pledged to punish short-sellers of oil that bet on price falls. Prices had fallen in recent weeks to close to USD70 per barrel from over USD130 a year ago when Russia invaded Ukraine.
"The Saudi move was driven by the desire to deter short-sellers from pushing the price any lower," a source familiar with OPEC+ strategy said on condition of anonymity.
"The size of (the Saudi) reduction is credible and should at minimum limit the downside pressure on prices for the rest of the year," Natasha Kaneva at JP Morgan said. Unexpected price rises force short-sellers to close positions at a loss.
OPEC says it does not have any oil price target and its policy decisions are to prevent volatility by balancing supply and demand.
We remind, Russia agreed to extend its existing 0.5 million bpd curbs into 2024, Angola and Nigeria agreed to give up their unused quotas. The United Arab Emirates was allowed to boost its production quota by 0.2 million bpd to 3.2 million from 2024.
mrchub.com