MOSCOW (MRC) -- Ethylene production from export-oriented steam crackers associated with advantaged gas-based feedstocks is set to alter the global ethylene markets, according to analysis from energy research firm Wood Mackenzie's new Chemical Markets Service, reported Commodity Online.
"The key competitive differentiator for ethylene producers is access to low cost feedstocks or proximity to local demand. Through 2030, advantaged cracker investments will continue in the Middle East, sharply increase in North America, and then later develop in Russia and The Caspian," says Stephen Zinger, Head of Americas Chemical Research at Wood Mackenzie.
Ethylene producing assets that have access to low cost gas feedstocks, such as the ones in North America, will lead the competition with total ethylene and derivative investment set to reach USD40-50 billion in the next decade. Over the same time period, global ethylene demand will grow by 3.3% per year, on average, according to Wood Mackenzie. The Dow Chemical Company, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. and Exxon Mobil Corporation are among the leading companies engaged in the ethylene industry in North America.
In turn, China will continue to have the fastest demand growth for ethylene and ethylene derivatives and will satisfy this demand through increases both in domestic production capacity (coal-to-olefins and naphtha cracking) and imports from producers around the world with advantaged feedstocks.
In the next 10 years, Wood Mackenzie estimates total investment in ethylene and derivatives is expected to reach a record D40-50 billion in North America. In addition, ethane feedstocks to make ethylene have increased from under half of total feedstock for ethylene in 2005 to about 65% of total feedstock in 2013, and are expected to continue to rise to over 80% of total feedstock consumption.
"The development of shale gas resources in North America has triggered an ethylene investment renaissance, with the abundance of competitively priced natural gas liquid feedstocks, particularly ethane," adds Zinger.
Wood Mackenzie says domestic demand in North America for ethylene derivatives will grow more slowly than the planned ethylene capacity increases, which will lead to derivative exports more than tripling over the next 15 years.
Over the next decade, the more mature markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will go through a period of consolidation, cost cutting and product value creation to increase their competitiveness, as their export market share to China is gradually replaced by low cost material from the Middle East, North America, Russia and The Caspian.
Advantaged ethane-based ethylene investments drove massive capacity growth in the Middle East throughout the 1990s and 2000s, culminating with significant new capacity additions in 2008-2010. The Middle East is again expected to almost double its existing capacity by 2030 and remain the largest ethylene derivative exporting region globally. Forced to change feedstocks by an impending shortage in ethane supplies, projects in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and eventually Oman will adjust feedstock mix to diversify and include LPGs and naphtha.
"After decades of stagnation, the Russia and The Caspian region will undergo considerable change, with plans to add nearly 10 million tons of capacity by 2030," adds Lidback. "In Russia, capacity expansions are planned in six discrete production clusters across the Western, Siberian and Far Eastern territories."
The region's emergence as a major exporter will place increasing pressure on high cost producers who do not have the benefit of advantaged feedstock. Europe, in particular, will be under considerable pressure with the addition of a neighbouring region with low cost supplies. Its ethylene industry is restructuring due to its weak demand growth, competitive disadvantages and widely available imports from low cost producers in other regions.
As MRC wrote before, the global ethylene market is expected to exhibit a 6.2% CAGR through 2017 and grow from USD 131.88 billion in 2012 to over USD 177.82 billion in 2017
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