Chinese LDPE prices hit highest weekly rise in eight months on Iran-Israel conflict

Chinese domestic low-density polyethylene (LDPE) prices surged Yuan 550 per metric ton ($76.64 per metric ton) on June 18, driven by fears surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict. This marked the steepest week-over-week rise since October 2024, as per Chemweek.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Chinese domestic LDPE at Yuan 9,800 per metric ton ex-works East China on June 18, based on tradable indications of Yuan 9,800-10,000 per metric ton.

Sources attributed the increase to concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian polyethylene (PE) supply, while domestic supply from local Chinese producers remained largely stable.

”Iran accounts for a significant portion of LDPE supply into China, so the Iran-Israel situation has affected domestic LDPE prices significantly,” a trader said.

China Customs Statistics showed Iran was the top supplier of LDPE to China in 2024, with 552,940 metric tons, followed by the UAE at 516,271 metric tons and the US at 461,306 metric tons. From January to April 2025, Iran ranked as the third-largest supplier, delivering 151,954 metric tons. The UAE led with 223,514 metric tons, followed by the US at 199,795 metric tons.

Market participants expect Iranian supply to tighten from mid-July due to the shutdown of several Iranian PE plants amid the ongoing conflict. Traders and end-users are also refraining from purchasing Iranian LDPE cargoes due to geopolitical uncertainty.

“No one dares to purchase goods from Iran now. Everyone is worried that once the deal is closed and paid for, the supplier could be affected by the war, and the goods might not arrive,” a trader said.

This was the sharpest price surge for domestic Chinese LDPE since Oct. 9, 2024, when the country’s government announced economic stimulus measures to boost its struggling economy. During that period, domestic and CFR-traded prices rose alongside rising futures prices and improved market sentiment. Tight import and domestic supply due to plant maintenance also contributed to the week-over-week increase of Yuan 650 per metric ton ($90.70) from Oct. 2 to Oct. 9, 2024.

Market participants are currently closely monitoring the Iran-Israel situation and adopting a cautious stance. Few offers and deals for dollar-denominated cargoes were heard in the market over the week. Platts assessed LDPE film up $20 per metric ton week-over-week at $1,025 per metric ton CFR FE Asia on June 18.

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On Wednesday, Ethylene prices inched higher in Northeast Asia, while remaining stable in Southeast Asia, as per Chemweek.

CFR North East Asia ethylene prices on Wednesday were assessed at the USD 825-835/mt levels, an increase of USD (+10/mt) from Tuesday?s assessed levels. An industry source in Asia while requesting to remain unidentified informed a Polymerupdate team member, "Prices rose on account of a healthy purchase pulse in the region."

Meanwhile, CFR South East Asia ethylene prices on Wednesday were assessed flat at the USD 845-855/mt levels.

In plant news, Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical (Petro Rabigh) has restarted its cracker in mid-June 2025 following a turnaround. The cracker was shut for maintenance in mid-April 2025. Located in Rabigh, Saudi Arabia, the cracker has an ethylene production capacity of 1.6 million mt/year.

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Trade policy vacillations and a lack of clarity on end-use demand have taken a toll on the outlook for the US chemical industry, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC). US chemicals output, excluding pharmaceuticals, is expected to increase by just 0.3% this year, with an 0.2% contraction forecast for 2026, said Chemweek.

ACC expects US GDP to rise by 1.3% in 2025, down significantly from a 2.7% growth forecast at the start of the year.

The soft full-year forecast for chemicals outlook indicates weakness over the remainder of the year, as output 6% sequentially in the first quarter. “Expectations over the next six months have deteriorated,” ACC said. “As uncertainty has clouded the outlook for many chemistry-consuming end-use markets, chemical demand is expected to weaken as well.”

A lack of clarity is reducing confidence among ACC members, ACC president and CEO Chris Jahn told CW. “What I hear from members is that they’d like to see sustainable demand growth going forward,” Jahn said. “There is some talk of certain segments seeing additional activity, but you can’t be confident that we are really getting back to growth versus seeing…pre-buying due to tariffs.”

While tariff pre-buying has not been evident in inventory numbers, it may still be early for such indicators to show up in the data, ACC chief economist Martha Moore told CW. “Some inventory to sales numbers are ticking up, but it’s not a steep increase,” she said. Still, “we’re keeping an eye on it,” she added.

Trade policy has been the primary factor driving a deterioration in the outlook so far in 2025. Uncertainty “is pervasive throughout the economy,” Moore said.

US consumer spending and business investment are both expected to downshift this year, according to ACC’s forecast. Consumer spending is forecast to post 1.9% growth in 2025, compared with 2.8% growth in 2024. Business investment is expected to post 1.7% growth in 2025, compared with 4.0% growth last year.

Growth in global industrial production is also expected to fall this year, albeit narrowly, from 1.7% growth in 2024 to 1.5%, according to ACC.

The downshift in expectations comes after some optimism in late 2024 and early 2025. The past few years “were weak for manufacturing…then we saw some green shoots” late last year and early this year, Moore said. Around the start of the year, “things were on an upward trajectory…but that of course has shifted,” she added. “Policy uncertainty is the biggest factor.”

“Pervasive uncertainty about trade policy and its potential impact has slowed economic activity in the US and abroad,” ACC said in its mid-year report. “The lack of clarity makes it difficult for firms to make decisions, and as a result, orders, investment and hiring have been delayed as many firms adopt a ‘wait and see’ position.”

Uncertainty around trade policy is not the only factor putting a damper on demand, however. High interest rates, and material and labor costs – as well as tariffs – have cut into affordability in the key housing and automotive end markets. “Affordability is an issue” in both sectors, Moore said. ACC expects both light vehicle sales and housing starts to decline year-over-year in the US in 2025.

Some end markets are performing relatively well. The semiconductor sector is expected to see 7.0% growth in production volumes this year, ACC said, driven mainly by demand from AI applications. Computers, oil and gas, and pharmaceuticals are also expected to see above-trend growth, according to ACC.

Still, there is a sense of hesitation. At ACC’s annual meeting in Colorado Springs, Colorado earlier this month, there was “anxiousness about the short-term economic outlook,” Jahn said. ACC has downgraded its full-year growth forecasts for most of the chemical end markets it tracks, with about half of those markets expected to see volumes contract this year.

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Solenis LLC has entered into a definitive agreement with NCH Corp. (Irving, Texas) to acquire 100% of NCH’s stock, according to a joint statement June 19, as per Chemweek.

The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2025, subject to relevant regulatory approvals. Financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

The Levy family, the owners of NCH, expressed their commitment to the company’s future. They will become the largest minority shareholder in Solenis, the companies said.

Solenis and NCH will continue to operate strictly as independent companies until the transaction is complete, they said.

NCH offers water treatment and industrial solutions from its 24 manufacturing plants and 76 distribution centers, across 48 countries. The company’s annual sales are around USD1 billion according to information on its website.

“Joining forces creates a more diversified business with increased scale, an expanded global footprint, and superior customer service capabilities,” said John Panichella, CEO of Solenis, adding that the newly combined company will provide cross-selling opportunities, including meeting the increasing customer demand for sustainable and digital solutions.

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Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller has discussed Russian gas supplies to Slovakia with SPP CEO Vojtech Ferenc, Gazprom said, as per Interfax.

SPP is Slovakia's largest natural gas supplier, engaged in gas and electricity trading, transportation and storage. Slovakia owns 100% of the company's shares.

As reported, the European Commission has proposed ending Russian gas supplies to member countries by 2028. SPP said it disagreed with this plan. "The political decision lacks a sufficient legal and financial analysis of the consequences and impact assessments of proposed measures to terminate Russian natural gas imports, which could have a significantly negative impact on the competitiveness of the EU's business sector," SPP said.

The plan could also distort the free energy market and seriously threaten the security of the energy supply for some regions of the continent, including Central and Eastern Europe, SPP said.

Terminating long-term contracts might be viewed by Gazprom as unilateral breach of contractual obligations, SPP said. "Under the 'take-or-pay' principle, if SPP or Slovakia stops importing Russian fuel from January 1, 2028, Gazprom could demand payment for the entire unrealized gas volume, which at current prices amounts to around 16 billion euros," the company said on Tuesday.

Securing alternative gas supplies would occur under "significantly less favorable economic conditions," it said.

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