The European chemical industry’s output is forecast to grow 0.5% in 2025, compared with 2.5% in 2024, mainly due to the “highly uncertain” economic environment European chemical companies are operating in, according to the most recent Chemical Monthly Report by the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic), as per Chemweek.
In the first two months of the year, European chemical output decreased slightly, 0.3% year over year, and remained 9.1% below the pre-crisis levels of 2014 to 2019, Cefic said.
Belgium’s chemical output grew at the highest rate, at 9.1%, while the Netherlands and France posted declines of 6.1% and 5.5%, respectively, Cefic said. Germany and Italy posted a modest increase of less than 0.5%, it said.
“As major supplier of products and technologies to key manufacturing sectors, the European chemical industry needs a strong domestic demand to achieve significant growth. Unfortunately, no strong positive changes have been observed so far and business expectations for most downstream users are still not encouraging,” Cefic said.
European chemical prices were 1.1% higher compared with the first two months of 2024, while sales in value increased by less than 1%, Cefic said. Meanwhile, capacity utilization decreased to 74% in the first quarter of 2025, from 74.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and below a long-term average of 81.4%, Cefic added.
The recovery that started in 2023 was interrupted in the second half of 2024 and this trend continues in 2025, Cefic noted. “This reflects the high level of uncertainty surrounding the European business community. Given the lack in demand growth, the European chemical industry production volumes have still not recovered,” it said.
The ongoing low demand and high energy costs continue to weigh on European chemical sales, Cefic said.
Europe’s chemical exports increased by 1.8% in the first two months of 2025 in comparison with the same period in 2024, while chemical imports increased by 10.2%, it said. As a result, Europe’s chemicals trade surplus amounted to €6.7 billion in the first two months of 2025, down by around 25% year over year or €2.2 billion, Cefic said.
Imports continue to grow more steeply than domestic production, meaning that the EU is losing ground on its home market to non-EU countries, Cefic noted. Imports of chemicals from China reached €33.1 billion in 2024, followed by the US and the UK with €30 billion and €20.1 billion, respectively.
“European reliance on China’s exports to the [EU] chemicals market has increased more than 4.7 times in twenty years, rising from less than 1% in 2004 to 5.6% in 2024. The [EU] chemicals dependency on US’ exports has increased more than 1.4 times in the same period, rising from less than 3.7% in 2004 to 5.1% in 2024,” Cefic said.
mrchub.com