BASF lifts force majeure on ethylene supply at crackers in Belgium, Germany

BASF SE lifted its force majeure on April 17 on two steam crackers located at Antwerp, Belgium, and Ludwigshafen, Germany, according to a source close to the company, as per Chemweek.

Other market sources also confirmed the force majeure was lifted. BASF’s Antwerp cracker has a nameplate production capacity of 1.08 million metric tons per year of ethylene, while its Ludwigshafen site has two crackers with a total ethylene production capacity of 620,000 metric tons per year, according to data from Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. The force majeure was declared April 2.

There is currently limited appetite in the European ethylene market for deals done on a CIF basis amid the changing tariffs landscape. While structural demand remained weak, a reduced demand for imports created slightly more favorable conditions for European producers.

Downstream a mixed picture has emerged, with market activity being subdued and high uncertainty in the polyethylene markets from the tariff disputes. Production disruptions and ongoing weak seasonal demand from the construction industry also kept buying interest relatively low in the polyvinyl chloride market.

Platts last assessed the European ethylene spot price at €807.50 per metric ton free delivery Northwest Europe on April 16, down €36 per metric ton from the start of the month.

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The Russian Economic Development Ministry's updated baseline forecast for GDP growth in 2025 is 2.5%, the same as the previous forecast it made last September, a ministry spokesman told reporters, citing draft forecast scenarios for Russia's socioeconomic development in 2025-2028 that the ministry has submitted to the government, as per Interfax.

The ministry slightly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.4% from the 2.6% projected last September, but left the forecast for 2027 unchanged at 2.8%. It expects 3.0% growth in 2028.

"We left our estimate for GDP growth in 2025 at 2.5%, based on the dynamic of the first quarter and long-term trends. We believe this estimate is quite realistic. Of course, it's lower than last year, because 4.3% [GDP growth in 2024] is very high. But some cooling of the economy, slowdown of growth is objective with such a base," the spokesman said.

Asked why the ministry is more optimistic about growth in 2025 than analysts and the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), he said the "ministry is looking at the trend of the first quarter - the economy is slowly slowing, but we don't expect a sharp drop. The CBR expects growth of 1-2% this year, while the consensus of analysts polled in April forecast 1.6%.

"In order to arrive at 1.5% growth for 2025, there needs to be a technical recession in some quarter. We're not factoring such a thing into the baseline scenario. In the stress scenario, this is possible, but that's why it's the stress scenario," the spokesman said.

"However, we slightly lowered the economic growth estimate for 2026, from 2.6% to 2.4%, which is related to the fact that the effect of, among other things, tight monetary policy, monetary and credit conditions will carry over to 2026," he said.

"As for the global economy and its turbulence, we, naturally, are factoring in a slowdown of global economic growth. We've factored this into the pace of exports and imports, and into the exchange rate, and into oil prices, which is most important," he said, commenting on how current developments in the global economy will affect growth in Russia.

"We are now factoring global economic growth of 2% and change for 2025 into the baseline scenario. The pace will be slower than previously expected, but we're not factoring in the possibility of a global recession. We're proceeding from the assumption that this matter with trade flows, trade wars and so on will probably not be universal. The world is bigger than the United States, after all, so some flows will be redirected and the Covid scenario, when world trade simply stopped for a time, all flows collapsed, won't happen, they will simply go differently," he said.

"But there is also the stress scenario, where we factor in the possibility of a global recession. It is not ruled out, but the chances are not very high," the spokesman said.

"We believe that our forecast is of a moderately conservative nature, meaning it's not too optimistic, but also not too pessimistic. Of course, volatility is very high and, foremost, external conditions related to fluctuations on the world market could also affect the parameters of the forecast and the parameters of the budget," he said.

The ministry has drafted several scenarios, including a more optimistic one, a more conservative one and a risk scenario, he said.

The presented baseline scenario assumes that current sanctions will generally remain in place for the whole forecast period to 2028, he said, remarking that "in the baseline scenario we're not factoring in any dramatic changes in this regard."

The conservative scenario assumes lower oil prices, but still projects Russian economic growth throughout the whole forecast period, though slightly slower than in the baseline scenario.

"In the baseline scenario, we don't rule out that the export price [for oil] collapses below the cut-off price [of $60 per barrel] for some period of time, but then it goes up. We don't deplete the [National Welfare Fund (NWF)] in this construct. In terms of the budget, these are tight, but alright conditions," the spokesman said, commenting on how the new forecast might affect the budget.

The CBR raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0-2.0% from 0.5-1.5%, but lowered its forecast for 2026 to 0.5-1.5% from 1.0-2.0%. Analysts polled by Interfax at the beginning of April forecast growth of 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% next year.

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Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev discussed energy cooperation with Wang Hongzhi, head of the National Energy Administration, during his visit to China, the Russian Energy Ministry said, as per Interfax.

The parties discussed cooperation in all fuel and energy industry branches. "The key topic was prospects for expanding Russian energy supplies to China. The results achieved in the supply of natural gas from Russia to China were mentioned. The participants also considered the possibility of implementing joint LNG projects," the ministry said.

"Despite external challenges, we continue to strengthen Russian-Chinese ties in the energy sector. Russian energy resources account for most of total trade between our countries," Tsivilev said.

Separately, the minister discussed new approaches to achieving technological sovereignty with his Chinese colleagues.

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Gazprom Neft is establishing a network of testing grounds in Western Siberia to develop new approaches to tapping hard-to-recover oil reserves, the Russian oil company said, as per Interfax.

"Innovation areas will be created at the Verkhnesalymsky and Kholmogorsky blocks in the Khanty Mansi Autonomous District (KMAD)-Yugra. The company will also test solutions for developing Achimov reserves at the Yamburg technology testing ground in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District (YNAD)," the company said in a press release.

"Gazprom Neft opened Russia's first technology testing grounds at the Salymsky-3 and Palyanovsky blocks in KMAD-Yugra [in 2021]. The creation of the three new areas will expand possibilities for the company to develop the latest tools to extract hard-to-recover oil reserves in various geological and geographic conditions," the company said.

The network will thus connect the innovation areas of Gazpromneft-Salym, Gazpromneft-Palyan, Gazpromneft-Noyabrskneftegaz, Salym Petroleum Development and Gazprom Dobycha Yamburg (under a long-term risk service contract). The Federal Mineral Resources Agency (Rosnedra) issued the licenses to the Verkhnesalymsky, Kholmogorsky and Yamburg hard-to-recover reserves to the companies in mid-March.

Gazprom Neft experts will use the new testing areas to test equipment for geophysical well logging, drilling and fracking, domestic technology and reagents to increase extraction rates, as well as software and mathematical models to explore for and develop hard-to-recover reserves.

"We have already found approaches to extracting Achimov oil at blocks in KMAD-Yugra and the Noyabrsk region. The next stage involves looking for solutions to develop hard-to-recover reserves in the rest of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, including the Yamal Peninsula. With the opening of new technology testing grounds, we will get closer to solving this massive challenge, which is important for both our company and for maintaining production in Siberian regions," the deputy head of Gazprom Neft's exploration and resource development department, Yury Masalkin said in the press release.

Technology testing grounds for developing hard-to-recover reserves as a new type of resource licensing were introduced in the spring of 2021. This type of license provides for the development of geological survey, exploration and production technology with tax breaks. The list of hard-to-recover reserves for which such testing grounds can be implemented includes Bazhenov, Abalak, Khadum and Domanic formations, extra heavy crude, tight Achimov formations, as well as Kumsko-Kerestinsky Suite oil deposits in the North Caucasus and Paleozoic deposits in Western Siberia.

Such licenses are also held by Rosneft (two in Samara Region), Tatneft (one in Tatarstan), Delta Technologies (one in Stavropol), Volgo-Uralskaya Oil Company (two in Samara Region), as well as CGC Holding-controlled Tekhnefteinvest and Stavropolneftegaz (two in the YNAD and five in Stavropol, respectively).

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Prinova Group LLC (London) has acquired Aplinova (Sao Paulo, Brazil), as per Chemweek.

Financial details of the transaction were not disclosed.

Aplinova is a provider of specialty ingredients for a wide range of market segments, including food, beverage, supplements and personal care. Aplinova recently opened a new facility in Jundiai, Brazil. Its innovation center’s focus areas include natural flavors, customizations for health and wellness, and expert solutions for sugar reduction.

Prinova, a subsidiary of the Nagase & Co., Ltd. (Tokyo) and a supplier of ingredients and premixes, has increased its footprint in Latin America in recent years. Prinova said the acquisition of Aplinova follows the takeover of Brazilian citrus oil processor Flavor Tec in 2023.

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