Russia's GDP grew 0.8% year-on-year in February 2025 after increasing 3.0% in January 2025, as per Interfax.
Russia's GDP grew 1.9% in January-February 2025, according to the ministry's estimates. The ministry's press service said "the dynamics of GDP in February are due to the calendar factor - in February 2025 there was 1 day less than in February 2024."
"The one additional working day could be reflected in the statistics by a fluctuation of several percentage points. If this factor were excluded, the economic growth rate in February would be comparable to that in January," the ministry said.
Industrial production rose 0.2% year-on-year in February after growing 2.2% in January, and increased by 1.2% in the first two months of 2025.
Freight traffic slumped 2.9% year-on-year in February after growing 1.3% in January, and declined by 0.7% in the two months.
Retail sales rose 2.2% year-on-year in February after growing by 5.4% in January, and increased by 3.8% in the two months. Wholesale sales fell 5.9% in February after increasing by 2.2% in January and slumped 2.0% in the two months.
Agricultural production growth slowed to 1.4% year-on-year in February from 2.1% in January and measured 1.7% in the two months.
The construction sector grew by 11.9% in February after expanding by 7.4% in January, and increased by 9.8% in the two months.
Earlier on Wednesday, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of its discussions on the key rate, which states that the overheating Russian economy probably began to cook in the first quarter of 2025, but it is too early to tell whether this process will be sustained and sufficiently fast to reach the inflation target in 2026.
"Participants in the discussion concluded that the positive production gap in the economy [overheating] probably began to shrink in the first quarter of 2025: current inflationary pressure is decreasing, the growth of domestic demand is slowing, and there are signs of easing tension on the labor market," the summary said.
"However, at this point it is premature to talk about a sustained decrease in the overheating of the economy and say that the speed of the decrease is sufficient to return inflation to the target [of 4%] in 2026. The positive production gap in the economy remains substantial," the CBR said.
Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% in 2024. The CBR raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0-2.0% from 0.5-1.5% in mid-February, while lowering its growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5-1.5% from 1.0-2.0%. The consensus forecast of analysts polled by Interfax at the start of March projected growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
The Economic Development Ministry's September 2024 forecast projects that GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2025, but the ministry will revise the forecast in April.
mrchub.com