UK chemical supply chains remain resilient, but growth may be plateauing, according to the Chemical Business Association’s (CBA; Crewe, UK), fourth-quarter supply-chain survey, as per Chemweek.
The CBA represents chemical distributors and traders in the UK, but the survey contains responses from manufacturers and distributors, as well as transport and logistics companies from across the UK’s chemical supply chains.
About 55% of respondents to the survey said order books remained unchanged, and only 18% specified they are improving, the CBA said. Meanwhile, only 20% of respondents reported improved sales, unchanged compared with the third quarter of 2024, but a 15% downturn from the fourth quarter of 2023.
Only 19% of survey respondents predicted an improvement in sales during the first three months of 2025, down from 34% in the fourth quarter of 2023. This, combined with 56% of respondents anticipating no changes to future sales, “could be further evidence of plateauing and possibly even slowing growth,” the CBA said.
Profitability is also fragile. About 10% fewer respondents reported margin improvements compared with the same period in 2023, and 69% indicated no margin change. A further decline in profitability is also expected. About 32% of respondents expect margins to worsen in the next three months – up from 19% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The fourth-quarter survey also revealed slowing growth in employment among CBA member companies. Only 4% are expecting employment levels to increase over the coming months, down from 18% in the third quarter of 2024 and 13% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, 84% of respondents expect employment levels to remain the same.
The survey shows some signs of improvement in terms of logistics and international trade. Fewer respondents are facing challenges caused by the Red Sea and Suez Canal, with the latest figures showing 48% of respondents are still encountering disruption, a significant reduction from the fourth quarter of 2023, when 70% experienced disruption.
Fewer road-haulage disruptions are also being reported – only 3% of respondents noted them as an ongoing issue in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with 22% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
CBA members continued to report disruptions caused by escalating road-haulage costs, continued regulatory issues linked to Brexit — in particular the UK’s version of the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals regulation (UK REACH) — and wider global factors, the association said.
Tim Doggett, CEO of the CBA, noted “vulnerabilities, also dependencies, across vital supply chains, that require urgent action to be taken, to ensure the UK remains competitive.”
Businesses in the UK “face a variety of challenges,” Doggett said. He highlighted UK REACH, which “remains unresolved since December 2021,” when the UK government announced plans to explore a new model. “Meaningful progress is still absent, resulting in inertia and uncertainty that continues to stifle trade and investment,” Doggett said.
Meanwhile, the latest survey by the Chemical Industries Association, released last week, showed a decline in sales by UK chemical manufacturers during the fourth quarter of 2024.
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