Momentum is building for renewable hydrogen projects in Europe, despite recent high-profile cancellations and setbacks, as state-backed subsidy support auctions and end-user mandates underpin final investment decisions, as per Chemweek.
More plants have reached positive FIDs than have been scrapped, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed, though the share of announced projects to progress to FID remains small. Experts attribute project failures to natural attrition in the nascent clean hydrogen sector.
“In a sense, I am not surprised by what I see in the marketplace,” Energy Transitions Commission Chair Adair Turner told Commodity Insights. The ETC sees slow growth in low-carbon hydrogen to 2030, with a more rapid ramp-up in 2030-40, Turner said in an interview.
Despite jitters from late 2024 project cancellations, the industry is poised at a critical threshold, with policy frameworks and funding taking firmer shape.
Over 3 GW of electrolysis capacity has passed FID in Europe, to produce 415,000 mt/year of renewable hydrogen, according to Commodity Insights data, compared with 2 GW of cancellations.
Carbon capture-enabled hydrogen projects have fared less well, with 1.5 million mt/year of cancellations overshadowing 400,000 mt/year of FIDs.
But advanced-stage projects including FID total 3.8 million mt/year across renewable and low-carbon projects, with 2.4 million mt/year from blue hydrogen.
Data analyzed by European law firm Fieldfisher, including from Pitchbook Data, identifies $1.13 billion in low-carbon hydrogen investments in Europe in 2024, up from $550 million in 2023.
The EU is paving the way with grant support. Its first European Hydrogen Bank subsidy auction, awarded in 2024 at 37-48 euro cents/kg, will support 1.5 GW of electrolysis across six projects based in the low-cost renewable generation regions of the Nordics and Iberia.
The second auction, with a budget of up to Eur1.2 billion ($1.26 billion) and a price ceiling of Eur4/kg, closes Feb. 20.
In the UK, the government has awarded the first contracts under its debut hydrogen allocation round (HAR1), with the remaining winning project awards under the 125-MW round expected in the coming weeks.
The UK will also support the country’s first two blue hydrogen plants through its Track 1 industrial cluster decarbonization program.
The bilaterally negotiated strike prices for HAR1 have proved more expensive per kilogram, with an average strike price of GBP9.50/kg.
Industry representatives said each approach has its benefits and limitations but pointed to both being “investable.”
The following three to six months will be crucial for the industry in the UK, Hydrogen UK Chief Executive Clare Jackson told Commodity Insights.
“What we saw in 2024 was perhaps not the pace we would have liked,” Jackson said in a January interview. “We need to see an acceleration in the pace, both for the hydrogen allocation rounds and the Track CCUS cluster process, but also in terms of infrastructure as well.”
Jackson cautioned that more funding than the GBP22 billion already allocated over 25 years for three Track 1 projects offered grants plus the associated CO2 infrastructure would be needed for the remaining Track 1 projects, the Track 1 extension and Track 2.
She said blue hydrogen production would dominate through to 2030, with green production gaining prominence thereafter, driven by the Labour government’s clean power 2030 plans.
mrchub.com