The European chemical industry’s output grew sequentially in the second quarter of 2024 for the fourth consecutive quarter, with production 1.2% higher than in the first quarter of the year, according to the most recent Chemical Monthly Report by the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic), said Chemweek.
On a year-over-year basis, output increased by 4.3%; however, given the lack in demand growth, the European chemical industry production volumes are still not completely recovering, Cefic said, adding that production of the European chemical industry seems to have reached its ultimate low in the second quarter of 2023.
“Demand is weak. Incoming orders decline as downstream industry in Europe remains weak,” according to Cefic. Managers’ opinion on the current level of overall order books decreased slightly in July 2024, due to the lack of demand, Cefic said. However, destocking ended in March, and July is the fourth consecutive month showing an upturn in the stock level after six months of decline, it said.
Capacity utilization declined slightly to 75.2% in the second quarter of this year, down from 75.6% in the first quarter, Cefic said. This is, however, far below the long-term average of 81.4%, it added.
The European chemical industry needs to operate profitably, Cefic noted. Some chemical companies in Europe are planning “significant staff cuts in the next few months,” Cefic said, citing survey results from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO; Munich).
In the first half of 2024, the chemical industry was one of only three industries in Europe to post a year-over-year increase in production, up 3.4%, according to Cefic’s analysis of Eurostat data. Paper, with a growth of 3.5%, and food and beverage, with a growth of 2.0%, were the other two.
“A strong recovery of the chemical production in 2024 is unlikely when most of the chemical industry’s downstream users — automotive, rubber & plastics, construction, computer production — are still showing downward trends. The construction and automotive markets are still struggling; in particular, there are concerns for possibly low production and demand levels in the second half of 2024 and 2025 for cars and electric vehicles,” Cefic said.
Lithuania, Poland and Greece posted the highest output growth in the first half of 2024, at 16.3%, 12.8% and 10.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, Europe’s largest economies started 2024 “better than expected,” with Spain, Germany and Belgium achieving the highest increases in production among them, at 6.6%, 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively, Cefic said.
European chemical exports declined by 2.9% on a year-over-year basis to €113.8 billion in the first half of 2024 from €117.2 billion in the same period of 2023. Imports decreased by 11.9% from €101.1 billion in the first half of 2023 to €89.0 billion in the first half of 2024. As a result, Europe’s chemicals trade surplus in the first half was 54% higher year over year, at €24.8 billion.
“Europe would benefit from a strong economic recovery of China and a continued decrease of energy prices [recorded for both crude oil and natural gas]. These would stimulate the recovery of the European economy in the mid-term, and particularly of the energy intensive sectors and their customer sectors,” Cefic said.
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mrchub.com