The ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA) market has been delving into US-China subsidies and levies impacting the global flow of the solar industry, according to market participants, said Chemweek.
EVA sheet, with a vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) content of 25% and above, is an essential material in solar modules manufacturing.
The EVA global market has been oversupplied by China-based producers operating at high rates despite tight margins to support its photovoltaic (PV) industry, according to sources. This has led to several price declines in the US export market and in China, the largest market for EVA and the main destination for US-origin product.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed medium-grade EVA at $1,110 per metric ton FAS Houston on June 19, down $90 per metric ton since April 29, when it began declining. Meanwhile, US domestic contract prices for all grades were heard to have remained stable.
In Asia, medium-grade EVA was assessed at $1,175 per metric ton CFR China on June 20, down $265 per metric ton compared with March 11, when the price assessment was launched by Platts. PV-grade EVA was assessed at $1,170 per metric ton CFR China on June 20, down $350 per metric ton since March 11, unusually trading at a discount to lower grades.
Commodity Insights forecasts c-Si module production, which often uses EVA as an encapsulation film, to add 302 GW in the second half of 2024, with China accounting for 76% of the total. North America, mostly the US, will account for 6% of the production, showing a 74% increase compared with its own production in the first half of 2024. By 2029, North America is projected to represent 9% of global production, increasing its output by 127% compared with 2024.
Considering EVA is used in around 80% of the solar modules and making adequate assumptions for the product specifications, demand for PV-grade EVA in the second half of 2024 is estimated to be around 542,000 metric tons, representing growth of 5% compared with the first half of this year.
Despite the increase in demand, prices are not expected to rise as long as the market remains oversupplied, according to an EVA distributor in the US, who highlighted that PV-grade EVA demand in China has been amply met by local suppliers. “Chinese producers have been running more EVA and less LDPE to support solar panel production,” the distributor said.
In the US, the solar industry accounted for over 50% of new electricity capacity additions to the grid in 2023 and is expected to maintain the rhythm. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives are crucial for supporting the growth of the domestic manufacturing base, which currently falls significantly short of demand.
The US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has finalized the Renewable Energy Rule, which will cut fees for wind and solar projects developed on federal land by up to 80%. The rule comes into effect on July 1, 2024, according to BLM documents.
In related news, the US government announced in May plans to increase tariffs on Chinese solar cells, whether or not assembled into modules, from 25% to 50%. The tariffs are expected to have limited immediate impact as the majority of solar cells are imported from Southeast Asia — mostly from facilities operated by Chinese manufacturers in response to US tariffs established years ago.
Additionally, the International Trade Commission continued an ongoing investigation to determine whether the tariffs that apply to Chinese products should be expanded to other Southeast Asian manufacturers.
As the US strives to be less reliant on solar industry imports, domestic demand for EVA should be positively impacted. This would be beneficial to US EVA sellers currently seeking alternative markets amid China’s low pricing.
According to DataScope, in December 2023, imports of EVA to Russia fell by 15.91% to 3,180 tonnes from 3,790 tonnes in the same month of the previous year, and at the end of 2023, imports of this type of copolymer ethylene in the Russian Federation decreased by 1.30% - to 44,890 tonnes (45,480 tonnes in January-December 2022).
mrchub.com