China and India struggle to curb fossil fuels

MRC -- China and India are burning record amounts of fossil fuels this year, even as they also install record renewable power generation capacity, highlighting the slow pace and enormous inertia to be overcome in the energy transition, said Reuters.

Both countries are experiencing rapid growth in energy use for services such as air conditioning, heating, cooking, lighting, power and transport as they try to raise living standards closer to those in the advanced economies. Growing demand for energy services is so vast fossil fuels and renewable energy sources are acting as complements rather than substitutes, ensuring consumption from both is increasing simultaneously.

In effect, both countries are pursuing an “all of the above” approach to economic development and energy security, similar to the one advocated by then-U.S. President Barack Obama in his state-of-the-union address in 2014.

In every historical case, the transition from a pre-modern agricultural economy to a modern urban and industrial one has been accompanied by a huge increase in the consumption of energy. Increased consumption provides more labor saving, higher wages, more comfort, more entertainment and more opportunity for travel to visit family and see the world.

If they follow the usual pattern, both China and India are likely to consume a lot more energy services in the next few decades as their populations aspire to reach the same living standards as North America and Europe. In 2022, the populations of China (1.43 billion) and India (1.42 billion) were each similar to the total for countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (1.38 billion).

But total primary energy consumption in China (159 exajoules) and India (36 exajoules) was far lower than in the OECD (234 exajoules). Each person in China consumed only 66% of the energy as their counterparts in the OECD and in India the figure was just 15%.

We remind, Litasco, a trading arm of Russia's No.2 oil producer Lukoil, said that it had not received any offer for its refinery in Bulgaria and there were no talks to sell it, amid mounting pressure from Bulgarian authorities. Lukoil has already sold its oil refinery on the Italian island of Sicily, ISAB, to Cypriot private equity firm G.O.I. Energy. Although Lukoil has not directly been targeted by Western sanctions on Russia, the ISAB refinery was affected by an embargo on Russian crude oil as banks were reluctant to finance procurement for a Russia-related company.

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MRC -- Senior Vice President, Care Chemicals North America, BASF Corporation, Florham Park, will, as President, assume responsibility for the Division South & East Asia, ASEAN & ANZ, BASF South East Asia Pte. Ltd., Singapore, effective February 1, 2024, said the company.

The current head of the Division, Carola Richter (50), has decided to leave the company. Klaus Welsch (60), President, Mega Projects Asia, BASF (China) Company Ltd., Shanghai, will retire effective December 31, 2023.

Haryono Lim (50), Senior Vice President, Senior Project New Verbund Site China, BASF (China) Company Ltd., Shanghai, will, as President, succeed Klaus Welsch effective January 1, 2024 and will be based in Zhanjiang.

We remind, BASF has broken ground on a new polyethylene (PE) unit at its Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China. The 500,000-tonne/y facility, set to open in 2025, will be backward integrated. It will serve fast-growing demand in the area for products like films and pipes.

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MRC -- Russia's fuel export ban led to an 80% fall in railway exports of gasoline in the first 15 days of October from the same period in September to some 37,000 tons, said Reuters.

Russia temporarily banned exports of gasoline and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) from Sept. 21 to cope with a domestic market shortage. The restrictions, which were eased in part last week, made an exception for fuel supplied under inter-governmental agreements, including with members of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.

In the first 15 days of October, Russian refineries sent by rail to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan some 10,000 and 4,900 tons of gasoline respectively. Both countries have inter-governmental fuel supply agreements with Moscow.
Mongolia was also exempt from the ban and Russian gasoline exports to the country were around 6,800 tons.

Russian refineries diverted gasoline to the domestic market following the fuel export ban, although some still have ongoing maintenance, the market sources said on condition of anonymity. They said most of the gasoline exported in October via the Russian ports Ust-Luga, St. Petersburg and Murmansk originated from Belarus' refineries.

Belarus supplied to Russian ports by rail about 120,000 tons of gasoline in the first 15 days of October compared to some 246,000 tons in September, the data provided by the market sources showed. In 2021, Belarus and Russia signed transportation and transit transshipment agreement for exports of petroleum products from Belarus oil plants via Russian ports.

We remind, Litasco, a trading arm of Russia's No.2 oil producer Lukoil, said that it had not received any offer for its refinery in Bulgaria and there were no talks to sell it, amid mounting pressure from Bulgarian authorities. Lukoil has already sold its oil refinery on the Italian island of Sicily, ISAB, to Cypriot private equity firm G.O.I. Energy.

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MRC -- Litasco, a trading arm of Russia's No.2 oil producer Lukoil, said that it had not received any offer for its refinery in Bulgaria and there were no talks to sell it, amid mounting pressure from Bulgarian authorities, said Reuters.

Lukoil has already sold its oil refinery on the Italian island of Sicily, ISAB, to Cypriot private equity firm G.O.I. Energy. Although Lukoil has not directly been targeted by Western sanctions on Russia, the ISAB refinery was affected by an embargo on Russian crude oil as banks were reluctant to finance procurement for a Russia-related company.

"?Litasco SA, which is the main shareholder of LUKOIL Neftohim Burgas AD, has not received any offers to sell the refinery. Therefore, Litasco SA is currently not in any negotiations on the matter," it said in a statement.

"Litasco SA did not appoint any public or private organization to look for potential buyers or conduct any sale negotiation on its behalf." Bulgaria, the only EU country allowed to continue seaborne imports of Russian oil after December's EU embargo, ramped up imports from elsewhere in October as it strives to cut Russian purchases, according to LSEG data and Reuters calculations.

Bulgaria said last month it was getting ready to fully ditch Russian oil by October 2024 and planned to reduce Moscow's share of imports to 80% by the end of this year from around 90% now. Lukoil said last month that the plans to stop Russian oil imports by Bulgaria posed risks to the Burgas refinery, the largest oil plant in the Balkans.

A tight market for sour oil in Europe has made it difficult for the Burgas refinery to find alternative supplies, while demand for sour oil has been stoked by a ban on Kurdish oil exports, traders say.

We remind, Russia's fuel export ban led to an 80% fall in railway exports of gasoline in the first 15 days of October from the same period in September to some 37,000 tons. Russia temporarily banned exports of gasoline and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) from Sept. 21 to cope with a domestic market shortage.

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MRC -- North American chemical rail traffic rose for a ninth consecutive week, with railcar loadings for the week ended 14 October up 0.3% year on year to 44,668, according Association of American Railroads.

For the first 41 weeks of 2023 ended 14 October, North American chemical rail traffic was down 1.1% year on year to 1,857,880 - with the US down 2.3% to 1,275,816.

In the US, chemical railcar loadings represent about 20% of chemical transportation by tonnage, with trucks, barges and pipelines carrying the rest. In Canada, chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail.

We remind, for last week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 499,217 carloads and intermodal units, up 3.0 percent compared with the same week last year. Total carloads for the week ending October 7 were 233,768 carloads, up 3.6 percent compared with the same week in 2022, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 265,449 containers and trailers, up 2.5 percent compared to 2022.

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