Russian refinery economics remain strong despite forthcoming European price cap

The European Commission’s announcement that the EU is proposing a $100/bbl price cap on Russian oil products such as diesel, jet fuel and gasoline, and a USD45/bbl cap on discounted products like fuel oil, would not severely impact Russian refiners, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Speaking at Wood Mackenzie’s London office on January 31, Mark Williams, Research Director of Short-Term Refining & Oil Products, said that the oil products price cap, which is due to come into force on February 5, would have minimal impact on Russian refining crude runs and distillate exports.

“With Russian Urals trading at USD40/bbl on an FOB basis, capping the price at USD100/bbl and USD45/bbl, respectively, would still see Russian refining margins of USD20/bbl–$30/bbl,” Williams said. “At these levels, Russian refining economics are still very strong, so the incentive to refine crude into oil products remains high."

Alan Gelder, Vice President of Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, said that the challenge for Russian refiners is finding a pool of new, more distant buyers to replace the distillate barrels currently clearing into Europe. However, he added that with the price cap set at the proposed levels, Russian distillate prices could theoretically discount by a further USD200/metric t vs. market benchmarks before eliminating the commercial incentive to operate their refining sector.

“At these potential discount levels, the economic incentives for key emerging countries to import Russian distillates could outweigh the associated geopolitical and reputation risks and so distillate exports continue to flow,” Gelder added.

Russia has increasingly diversified its distillate exports in recent months, according to Wood Mackenzie's VesselTracker data. However, despite the emergence of new export markets for Russian distillates, the re-distribution of Russian oil product trade from the EU import ban does have a broader market impact. Williams expects Q1 2023 Russian crude runs and diesel exports to be ~800,000 bpd and 200,000 bpd lower than Q4 2022 levels, which will support both global crude and diesel prices through H1 2023.

The next few months are therefore likely to be volatile as global trade flows reshuffle,” Gelder said. “We do not see the price caps having any additional impact on trade flows at the currently proposed levels; however, if flows to new markets continue to develop as pricing discounts widen, there remains an upside risk to both Russian refining crude runs and distillate exports in 2023.”

We remind, independent Russian oil refiner Forteinvest has clinched a deal that will see Russian gasoline sent to Pakistan by land for the first time, two industry sources said on Friday, as Russian refiners seek alternative markets for motor fuels days before an EU import ban. Forteinvest has sold to a trader an initial 1,000-tonne lot of gasoline from its Orsk plant for delivery to Pakistan and has more requests to supply gasoline, diesel and LPG to the country, the sources added.

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KP Engineering (KPE), a leader in the design and execution of customized EPC solutions for the refining, syngas, hydrogen, and renewable fuels industries, is pleased to announce the completed acquisition of its assets by The Shaw Group (Shaw), a leader in global pipe and module fabrication. Going forward the company’s new legal entity will be KP Shaw, LLC., said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Shaw has built a reputation as the premier fabrication company throughout the U.S. and Middle East, with 1500 employees across six state-of-the-art facilities. This strategic acquisition will further enable Shaw to deliver complete engineering, procurement, and fabrication (EPF) project solutions to a variety of industries around the world. KPE brings a 19-year history of superior engineering, procurement, and project management to Shaw, which will now offer unparalleled modular and EPF solutions to the oil and gas, hydrogen and chemical, and renewable fuels and energy industries.

William E. Preston, who will continue as the President and CEO of KP Shaw, LLC, says, “This acquisition serves to fulfill an urgent requirement for bankable EPF service capacity in the growing North American market. KPE enhances the services in Shaw’s already strong portfolio of offerings, which includes pipe, module, and structural steel fabrication, induction bending and specialty coating services. The integration of Shaw’s high-quality services will enable us to better meet the needs of our well-established customer base and will also provide us with fresh opportunities to engage with new customers on a global scale."

“The completion of this transaction is another significant step for Shaw in growing our capabilities to service throughout the entire project lifecycle,” said Mike Childers, President and CEO of The Shaw Group, “KPE’s unique expertise in the energy transition markets is an excellent complement to our existing portfolio in the oil and gas, pulp and paper, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage and wastewater industries. I am happy to welcome the KPE team to join Shaw’s operations."

Shaw acquired all the assets and ongoing operations of KP Engineering, subsuming existing leases at facilities.

KP Shaw, LLC will operate as a subsidiary of The Shaw Group. Branding for the new entity will be established in the coming months.

We remind, ExxonMobil awarded a front-end engineering and design (FEED) contract to Technip Energies for a blue hydrogen project at its complex in Baytown, Texas. ExxonMobil described the contract as the largest of its kind in the world. The company could make a final investment decision (FID) on the project in 2024. If ExxonMobil proceeds, it could start operations in 2027-2028. Financial details were not disclosed.

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Reliance Industries has stopped selling petroleum coke within India and boosted imports of the product to turn it into synthetic gas to power its refineries, according to two sources familiar with the matter and trade data, said Reuters.

Petroleum coke is a carbon intensive solid residue left over from coking units in oil refineries that break down residual oil into more highly valued products. Petcoke, as it is known, can be used as a coal substitute in both steelmaking and in power plants.

Reliance had been depending on liquefied natural gas (LNG) to run its refinery complex and selling the petcoke locally but it is now gasifying its petcoke amid rising LNG prices.

With Reliance's petcoke no longer available domestically, India's imports are likely to rise, after doubling last year because of higher demand from cement makers, who use the petcoke to manufacture the building material. Reliance was the country's biggest domestic supplier until 2021.

"They slowly started reducing supplies (to local markets) in the middle of last year, but now it has come to a complete stop," one of the sources, a petcoke trader, said.

Reliance did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment. Both sources declined to be named as they are not authorized to speak to the media.

I-Energy Natural Resources, a solid fuels trader in India's Gujarat state, said prices of petcoke delivered to India rose last week as cement manufacturers increased their imports since it is still cheaper than overseas coal. There is a very limited supply of domestic petcoke to end-users, and this has made players to procure from the international market," I-Energy said in a note on Monday.

Trade data reviewed by Reuters shows Reliance also imported over 192,000 tonnes of petcoke in the four months to January amid higher internal demand. That compared with about 110,000 tonnes in the eighteen months ending September.

We remind, Reliance Industries Ltd., helmed by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, posted a larger-than-expected quarterly profit as growth in its consumer units offset the weakness in its traditional petrochemicals business. Net income fell 15% to 157.9 billion rupees (USD1.9 billion) in the quarter ended Dec. 31 but was still higher than the average 156.19 billion rupees estimated in a Bloomberg survey. India’s largest company by market value also secured approval of its board to raise as much as 200 billion rupees via bonds.

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Petronas has signed two Project Development Agreements with ExxonMobil Exploration and Production Malaysia Inc. (ExxonMobil) to jointly pursue Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) activation projects in Malaysia, said the company.

Under the agreements, both parties will define next steps, including the maturation of technical scopes for the CCS value chain, evaluation of the identified fields for CO2 storage utilisation, development of appropriate commercial framework and establishment of advocacy plan support on regulations and policy development in enabling CCS projects.

The agreements were signed by PETRONAS Head of Carbon Management, Emry Hisham Yusoff and ExxonMobil President, Shane Harris. PETRONAS Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer of Upstream, Datuk Adif Zulkifli and President of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, Asia Pacific, Irtiza Sayyed witnessed the signing. Also present was Vice President of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, Asia Pacific, Tracy Lothian.

Emry Hisham said, “PETRONAS is proud to work with its long-standing partner, ExxonMobil to pursue CCS projects together, aligning our shared aspiration to deliver energy solutions in a responsible and sustainable manner. This collaboration further strengthens PETRONAS’ commitment in providing decarbonisation solutions, aligned with our aspiration in establishing Malaysia as a leading CCS hub in the region.”

The agreements follow the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between both companies in November 2021. It is also part of PETRONAS’ deliberate steps to build a sustainable portfolio with innovative solutions to produce energy responsibly, supporting the transition to a lower carbon future through collaborative efforts with industry partners.

We remind, Italian energy group Eni is studying the possibility of developing and operating a biorefinery in Malaysia together with Japan's Euglena and Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas). The plant would be based in the integrated refinery and petrochemical Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC) in Southeast Asia, they said in a joint statement. An investment decision for the project is expected by 2023 and the plant is targeted to be completed by 2025.

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Shell plans to restructure the way it runs its hydrocarbons and renewables businesses as part of changes being made under new chief executive Wael Sawan to improve performance and bring the company’s low-carbon initiatives into a single division, said the Financial Times.

The moves, which include splitting Shell’s integrated gas, renewables and energy solutions division, represent the second internal restructuring at the company in three years as it seeks to navigate the energy transition.

The gas business, which includes the world’s largest liquefied natural gas trading operation, will be combined with the company’s oilfields in a new Integrated Gas and Upstream division, headed by current upstream director Zoe Yujnovich.

The renewables and energy solutions business, which includes Shell’s wind and solar projects, will be combined with the oil refining and marketing units to create a new downstream and renewables division led by current downstream director Huibert Vigeveno.

The combination of renewables and downstream, which already included Shell’s electric vehicle charging business and work on biofuels, will bring all of the company’s low-carbon investments into one area.

Europe’s largest energy company is set to announce record annual results on Thursday after a bumper year driven by soaring prices for oil and gas resulting from the disruption unleashed by Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

“I’m making these changes as part of Shell’s natural, and continuous, evolution,” Sawan said in a statement on Monday. “I believe that fewer interfaces mean greater co-operation, discipline and speed, enabling us to focus on strengthening performance across the businesses and generating strong returns for our investors."

After heading the upstream division, Sawan headed integrated gas and renewables for a year before taking over as chief executive at the start of January.

The changes, which take effect on July 1, also mean the number of people on Shell’s executive committee will shrink from nine to seven, with Ed Daniels’s role as director of strategy, sustainability and corporate relations discontinued.

From July, chief financial officer Sinead Gorman will oversee strategy and sustainability, while the corporate relations team will report to Sawan. Daniels will leave Shell after more than 34 years at the company, it said.

The appointments represent the first big reshuffle of personnel since Sawan’s appointment. However, the impact on the direction of the company will depend on how the changes on the executive committee cascade through the rest of the business in the second half of the year.

Shell said it did not expect major job losses as a result of the overhaul but that some cuts were “possible” if newly combined functions were streamlined. As part of the 2020 restructuring, known as Project Reshape, Shell planned up to 9,000 job cuts from its global workforce by the end of 2022.

We remind, Henkel and Shell Chemical LP have agreed to a five-year collaboration to replace up to 200,000 tonnes of fossil feedstocks used in the manufacture of surfactants with feedstocks that are based on renewable raw materials. The renewable-based surfactants will be used in Henkel’s laundry product brands, including many varieties of Persil®, Purex® and all® brands. Surfactants are an ingredient in cleaning products that help lather and lift dirt.

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