Jet fuel prices are soaring on the US East Coast with buyers anticipating a worsening shortage as supply dwindles amid sanctions on Russian energy exports, reported Reuters.
Following Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, the US and allies slapped heavy sanctions on Russian industry, leading to a tightening in worldwide energy markets. Russia is the world's largest exporter of crude and petroleum products, and the supply crunch is filtering through to global markets.
The East Coast largely relies on shipments on the Texas-to-New Jersey Colonial Pipeline for refined products, as well as imports from Europe. However, Europe is dealing with its own supply strains, so distillate exports to the US East Coast - also known as PADD 1 - are down nearly 60% on a year-on-year basis, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
East Coast jet fuel costs have reached record highs in recent days, with spot prices in New York Harbor exceeding $6.60 per gallon on Friday, more than double the seasonal average, according to data from oil traders citing OPIS and S&P Global Commodity Insights.
"It is ridiculous what's going on in PADD I with jet, and it's not sustainable," said Patrick DeHaan, lead petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.
Refiners spent most of 2020 blending excess jet fuel into their diesel pool or refining it further into gasoline as the coronavirus pandemic severely hit air travel. Demand for jet fuel is now about 5% below 2019 levels, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.
But US distillate inventories are currently about 20% below the average for the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic period, compared with deficits of 11% in crude and 1% in gasoline.
Western European refiners are unable to fill the gap in supply due to their own constraints - Russia is a major exporter of middle distillates like jet fuel to Europe.
Some of the US East Coast deficit results from problems in California, where in recent weeks a Chevron refinery and a PBF plant experienced malfunctions with fuel-producing units, according to people familiar with the matter.
US trading partners in Asia and the Middle East prefer to send barrels to the West Coast instead of the East Coast, according to Zachary Rogers, director of refining and biofuels at Rapidan Energy Group.
The spread between heating oil and US crude futures is USD43.55, compared with USD15.50 a year ago, according to Reuters data. Jet fuel is heavily aligned with heating oil as they are both middle distillates.
"Margins are higher than I've ever seen them, so high prices are great for any refinery that's not malfunctioning," said one West Coast refinery worker.
Relief could arrive in the coming weeks as West Coast refining capacity rebounds and the Biden administration approves waivers to the Jones Act - which requires shipments from one US port to another to be via US-flagged vessels - for barrels to move to the West Coast, Rogers said.
As MRC reported earlier, W. R. Grace & Co. a leading independent provider of polyolefin catalyst technology and process services, stated that it will increase prices for its fluid catalytic cracking catalysts and additives this year as contracts allow. As Grace offers products and services that continue to deliver increasing value, it faces rapidly escalating costs for key raw materials and energy, including aluminum-derived chemicals and natural gas. In addition, freight and logistics costs continue to rise at an extraordinary rate.
Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.
According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,487,450 tonnes in 2021, up by 13% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 1,494.280 tonnes, up by 21% year on year. Deliveries of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased, whereas shipments of PP random copolymers decreased significantly.
MRC