EIA forecasts crude oil prices to go down in 2022 and 2023

EIA forecasts crude oil prices to go down in 2022 and 2023

MOSCOW (MRC) -- EIA forecasts that crude oil prices will fall in 2022 and 2023 from 2021 levels, according to its January 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

In the fourth quarter of 2021, the price of Brent crude oil, the international pricing benchmark, averaged USD79 per barrel (b). EIA forecasts that the price of Brent will average USD75/b in 2022 and USD68/b in 2023.

The declining prices are driven by a shift from global petroleum inventory declines during 2021 to inventory increases in 2022 and 2023. Global petroleum inventories decline when consumption is greater than production and increase when production is greater than consumption.

In 2021, withdrawals from global petroleum inventories averaged 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) and contributed to higher crude oil prices. These inventory draws resulted from petroleum consumption returning faster than petroleum production after the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020. In 2022, we expect that petroleum production will increase and consumption growth will slow, leading to increases in petroleum inventories globally.

EIA expects global petroleum production to increase by 5.5 million b/d in 2022, driven by production increases in the United States, OPEC, and Russia, which together account for 84%, or 4.6 million b/d, of the growth. According to its forecast, increased tight oil production in the United States and gradually increasing crude oil production from OPEC+ (which includes OPEC members and Russia) will account for most of the increased crude oil production.

The global petroleum consumption will increase by 3.6 million b/d in 2022, driven by more consumption in the United States and China, which together account for 39% of the consumption growth. We forecast that global petroleum inventories will increase by 0.5 million b/d in 2022, which will put downward pressure on crude oil prices. EIA forecasts that the price of Brent crude oil in 2022 will fall from USD79/b in the first quarter to USD71/b in the fourth quarter.

In 2023, EIA expects continued inventory growth, averaging 0.6 million b/d. Global petroleum production will increase by 1.8 million b/d in 2023 from 2022, averaging 102.8 million b/d. In 2023, most of the growth in global petroleum production comes from producers in the United States and Russia. Production in the United States is forecast to increase by 0.8 million b/d, and production in Russia is forecast to increase by 0.3 million b/d. We forecast that OPEC production will increase by 0.1 million b/d in 2023.

Global petroleum consumption in 2023 will increase by 1.8 million b/d. Like in 2022, the growth is largely driven by rising consumption in the United States and China, which, according to EIA's forecast, will account for 43% of the consumption growth in 2023. India's petroleum consumption growth accounts for another 14% of the global total.

As MRC wrote before, oil supply will soon overtake demand as some producers are set to pump at or above all-time highs, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last Wednesday, while demand holds up despite the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

We remind that global oil refining capacity fell for the first time in 30 years last year, as new capacity was outweighed by closures, said the International Energy Agency's (IEA) in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday. Refining capacity was down by 730,000 bpd in 2021, the IEA said, but net additions were expected to amount to 1.2 MMbpd in 2022.

Asahi Kasei net income increased amid record sales

Asahi Kasei net income increased amid record sales

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asahi Kasei's net income surged to yen (Y) 140.7bn in April-December 2021, up by 75.9% year on year from the same period of 2020, supported by record high sales and operating income, said the company.

Net sales, operating income and net income were all at new record highs for the April-December period, the company said in a statement.

In the Material business, operating income more than doubled to Y91.7bn in April-December 2021 compared with Y42.8bn in the same period a year earlier amid higher petrochemical prices as well as increased shipments of engineering plastics.

The company expects its operating net income to more than double to Y185.5bn for its financial year ending 31 March 2022, compared with Y79.8m in the previous year.

Operating net sales are expected to rise by 16.5% year on year to Y2.45 trillion for the year ending 31 March.
The company expects a "large increase in net sales and operating income" in the Material business for the year ending 31 March compared to the year-ago period which was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

As per MRC, Asahi Kasei’s net profit for the fiscal year ending March 2021 slumped by 23.2%, weighed down by weakness in its materials business, and as the company booked a one-off loss for the period. The materials segment was hit by global economic deterioration amid the coronavirus pandemic. Sales for the segment declined by 9.3% year on year to Y991.2bn, with operating profit falling by 28% to Y66.5bn.

As MRC informed before, in July 2019, Asahi Kasei decided to expand its plant for the artificial suede LamousTM in Nobeoka, Miyazaki Prefecture, Japan, by four million m2/year, increasing the total production capacity to 14 million m2/year upon completion in 2021.

Asahi Kasei Corporation is a multinational Japanese chemical company. Its main products are chemicals and materials science. It was founded in May 1931, using the paid in capital of Nobeoka Ammonia Fiber Co., Ltd, a Nobeoka, Miyazaki based producer of ammonia, nitric acid, and other chemicals. Now headquartered in Tokyo, with offices and plants across Japan, as well as China, Singapore, Thailand, USA and Germany.

Haldor Topsoe and Acron sign MoU to develop green technologies aimed to reduce GHG emissions

Haldor Topsoe and Acron sign MoU to develop green technologies aimed to reduce GHG emissions

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Haldor Topsoe and Acron Group have signed a MoU with the purpose of jointly working within green technologies area. The MoU includes initiatives within joint development of technologies aimed to reduce GHG emissions (СО2 and N2O) at the existing production sites of Acron Group and development of promising projects for new products with minimum environmental impact, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Acron Engineering, a Russian engineering research center, which is a part of Acron Group, will be engaged in the work.

Aleksandr Popov, the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Acron PJSC, says: “Acron Group continues to introduce the ESG principles to the production operations of its facilities. We are happy to partner with Topsoe, the recognized technology leader in the industry. We expect our cooperation to result in break-through solutions in green technology use, which will reduce the environmental load and improve the overall eco-efficiency of the Group’s facilities.”

As MRC reported earlier, in October 2021, Dow (Midland, Michigan), the world's petrochemical major, and Haldor Topsoe partnered to promote the circular economy. About 300 million tons of plastic waste is produced every year on a global scale. The partnership between Dow and Topsoe marks a new initiative to efficiently convert waste plastics to circular plastics, keeping them out of the environment and responsibly reclaiming their value.

Plans include Dow to proceed with the design and engineering for a 10,000 ton per year market development unit using Haldor Topsoe’s PureStepTM technology to purify pyrolysis oil feedstock derived from waste plastics for use in circular products. Dow’s development unit will advance the technology for industrial-scale purification of circular feedstocks, which will be used to meet strong market demand for circular polyethylene (PE).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,265,290 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2021, up by 14% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased.

Pemex sharply cuts crude oil supply to India amid preparations for new refinery

Pemex sharply cuts crude oil supply to India amid preparations for new refinery

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Pemex has sharply reduced crude exports to India, the third largest market for its oil, amid preparations for a new refinery expected to absorb more of its output, reported Reuters with reference to data and people familiar with the matter.

Petroleos Mexicanos in December said it would cut crude exports this year and could suspend them altogether in 2023 as the company works to meet the government's target of refining all of its oil domestically.

Pemex is prepared to sacrifice a large portion of this year's crude sales to Asia, according to analysts and traders, with the expansion of its downstream business. In January, it took complete ownership of the 340,000 bpd Deer Park, Texas, refinery, and agreed to supply it with over 100,000 bpd of its flagship Maya heavy crude.

"Indian refiners that buy Mexican crudes every month are being called to notify them of volume cuts in 2022. Pemex has also turned down requests by refiners trying to sign new contracts," one of the sources said.

Mexico has scheduled only one crude cargo to India for the first two months of the year, which will cut exports to about 15,000 bpd from the almost 98,000 bpd shipped in the same period last year.

Last year, Pemex exported an average of 132,500 bpd to India, according to Refinitiv Eikon Trade Flows data, and worth some USD3.26 B at Pemex's crude market prices to Asia.

Asia is the second most important region for Pemex's crude after North America, with Indian and South Korean refiners leading Asian purchases until last year, according to company and Eikon data.

In India, the main buyers of Pemex's Maya and Isthmus crudes last year were Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL), Eikon data showed. Reliance Industries also has been a frequent buyer of Mexico's oil in recent years, one of the people said.

Pemex volumes to IOC could fall to about 22,000 bpd this year, from 40,000 bpd in 2021, one of the people said. Supplies to HMEL and Reliance also have been cut, the people familiar with the matter added.

As MRC wrote previously, in late January, 2022, Pemex signed a long-term crude supply contract with Royal Dutch Shell Plc as part of its acquisition of the Deer Park refinery in Texas. Pemex and Shell in May, 2021, announced the transaction, which is worth almost USD600 MM and will make the Mexican firm the sole owner of the refinery near Houston. The facility has capacity to process 340,000 bpd. Shell will supply about 200,000 bpd of foreign and US crude to the plant for at least 15 years.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC''s ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,265,290 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2021, up by 14% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 1,363,850 tonnes in January-November, 2021, up by 25% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of injection moulding PP random copolymers decreased significantly.

Linde signs agreement with BASF in France

Linde signs agreement with BASF in France

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Industrial gases major Linde has signed a long-term agreement with BASF to supply BASF’s planned hexamethylenediamine (HMDA) project in Chalampe, France, with hydrogen and steam, said the company.

As part of the contract, Linde will design, build, own and operate a new hydrogen production facility at Chalampe, doubling its capacity there.

The new Linde plant is expected onstream in the first half of 2024. Financial details were not disclosed.

We remind, BASF, SABIC and Linde have signed a joint agreement to develop and demonstrate solutions for electrically heated steam cracker furnaces. The partners have already jointly worked on concepts to use renewable electricity instead of the fossil fuel gas typically used for the heating process.

As per MRC, JSC SIBUR-Neftekhim and JSC Linde Gas Rus signed an agreement on the utilization of carbon dioxide formed in the technological process of SIBUR.

Linde is a global leader in the production, processing, storage and distribution of hydrogen. It has the largest hydrogen liquefaction capacity and gaseous hydrogen pipeline distribution system anywhere in the world. The company operates the world's first high-purity hydrogen storage cavern plus pipeline networks totaling approximately 1,000 kilometers globally, to reliably supply its customers. Linde is at the forefront in the transition to clean hydrogen and has installed 200 hydrogen fueling stations and 80 hydrogen electrolysis plants worldwide. The company offers the latest electrolysis technology through its world class engineering organization, key alliances and partnerships.