COVID-19 - News digest as of 17.11.2021

1. Global oil supply to rise to 1.5 mln b/d in November-December

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Nov. 16 signaled a likely easing of oil market tightness, forecasting world supply to rise by 1.5 million b/d in November-December on the back of a US output resurgence, and highlighting a recovery from refinery maintenance, reported S&P Global. In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based IEA noted that high prices, driven partly by the policies of OPEC+ nations, were serving both to "temper" the recovery in oil demand and spur US shale output. The IEA nudged up its 2022 demand growth estimate by 100,000 b/d to 3.4 million b/d, saying demand was being supported by "robust gasoline consumption and increasing international travel," but added, "new COVID waves in Europe, weaker industrial activity and higher oil prices will temper gains."



MRC

Thail equity Oman crude may help reduce PTT spot trading burden in 2022

Thail equity Oman crude may help reduce PTT spot trading burden in 2022

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Thailand's PTT Exploration and Production, or PTTEP, plans to bring home most of its equity crude barrels from its overseas upstream operations in 2022 rather than trading the oil, taking some pressure off domestic refinery feedstock procurement managers who constantly seek top-up barrels in the expensive spot market, reported S&P Global.

Major refiners across East Asia are scrambling to tie up as many term crude supply deals as possible for next year as they ramp up throughput levels and refinery run rates to serve rapid recovery in consumer and industrial fuel demand. The higher demand comes at a time when major OPEC producers are maintaining a cautious approach in raising crude supply, while prices extend uptrend.

In addition to term supply deals, Thailand is looking to make the most of its upstream investment portfolios, with PTTEP's subsidiaries PTTEP Oman E&P Corp. and PTTEP MENA set to provide state-run refiner PTT at least 5 million barrels of Oman crude for delivery over January-June 2022, PTT said in a statement.

Apart from the equity Oman barrels, PTTEP aims to supply domestic refineries its equity barrels from Algeria, Australia and the Americas, a marketing source at the state-run upstream company told S&P Global. The source declined to share information on the specific crude grades and volumes.

"PTTEP's equity barrels in Oman and other regions will allow local crude traders to take some breather as it's been rather troublesome and expensive to seek spot cargoes to cover short positions because of tight OPEC+ supply," a feedstock manager at PTT said.

PTTEP kicked off its Oman upstream operations in 2019 through the acquisition of Partex Corporation which later transformed into PTTEP Oman E&P Corporation and acquired two onshore producing petroleum blocks. The Petroleum Development Oman, or PDO, Block 6 project has a total oil production volume of around 610,000 b/d and Mukhaizna Block 53 project holds approximately 120,000 b/d. In February, PTTEP had acquired 20% in Block 61 through its subsidiary PTTEP MENA Limited which adds on condensate production volume around 65,000 b/d.

PTTEP's equity portion of the three projects equates to approximately 23,000 b/d of crude oil, according to PTT.

"The projects have allowed PTTEP further investment, create energy security, as well as generate revenue to the country," it said.

As MRC informed earlier, in October 2021, Thai chemical firm, PTT Global Chemical Pcl (PTTGC) said it plans to invest over USD22 bln in the next three decades to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,868,160 tonnes in the first nine months of 2021, up by 18% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 1,138,510 tonnes in January-September 2021, up by 30% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of injection moulding statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) decreased significantly.
MRC

Crude oil futures drop in Asia after concerns of tight supply eased

Crude oil futures drop in Asia after concerns of tight supply eased

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures were lower during mid-morning trade in Asia Nov. 17, after concerns of tight supply eased amid expectations of increasing US shale activity and reports of the US requesting China to release its oil reserves, reported S&P Global.

At 11:24 am Singapore time (0324 GMT), the ICE January Brent futures contract was down 63 cents/b (0.76%) from the previous close at USD81.80/b, while the NYMEX December light sweet crude contract fell by 67 cents/b (0.83%) to USD80.09/b.

Oil prices slipped as the support from a tight supply outlook eroded slightly following the release of the International Energy Agency's monthly Oil Market Report late Nov. 16, which highlighted the role that post-hurricane increase in US shale production, spurred by strong oil prices, played in meeting recovering demand.

"The world oil market remains tight by all measures, but a reprieve from the price rally could be on the horizon...not because demand is declining, but rather due to rising oil supplies," according to the report.

The expectation of rising shale production was backed by the US Energy Information Administration's monthly Drilling Productivity Report released Nov. 15, which forecasts an 85,000 b/d increase in oil production from November to December, the largest of which is likely from the Permian basin.

In addition, media reports of the US requesting China to release its oil reserves to help stabilize strong crude oil prices, as part of ongoing economic negotiations between the two countries, has bolstered expectations of an increase in supply.

The US government has been flirting with the idea of releasing its own strategic petroleum reserves after the OPEC+ alliance refused to heed calls in their November meeting to loosen oil production taps, but has yet to make an official decision on the matter.

As MRC wrote previously, the average utilisation rate at China's four state-owned refiners fell to a five-month low of 80.6% in October from 81.5% in September while independent refiners also maintained run rates at low levels due to feedstock shortage. These would likely lead the country's crude throughputs to extend the downward trend in October from the 17-month low of 13.7 million b/d, or 56.07 million mt, in September, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The four state oil companies -- Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC and Sinochem - plan to process a total 7.67 million b/d of crudes in October, against their nameplate capacity of 9.52 million b/d, Platts data showed. This compared with a planned throughput of 7.7 million b/d in September. In November, the state-run refiners plan to lift throughput from the low base in October to boost gasoil and gasoline supplies for meeting domestic demand, refining sources said.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,868,160 tonnes in the first nine months of 2021, up by 18% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 1,138,510 tonnes in January-September 2021, up by 30% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of injection moulding statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) decreased significantly.
MRC

MEGlobal nominates ACP for December 2021 at USD900 per tonne

MEGlobal nominates ACP for December 2021 at USD900 per tonne

MOSCOW (MRC) -- MEGlobal has announced its Asian Contract Price (ACP) for monoethylene glycol (MEG) to be shipped in December 2021, according to the company's press release.

Thus, on 16 November, the company said ACP for MEG would be at USD900/MT CFR Asian main ports for arrival in December 2021, down by USD120/tonne from the previous month.

The December 2021 ACP reflects the short term supply/demand situation in the Asian market.

As MRC reported earlier, MEGlobal announced its November ACP for MEG at USD1,020/MT CFR Asian main ports, up by USD140/tonne from October.

MEG is one of the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene terephthalate (PET).

According to ICIS-MRC Price report, in the Russian market, contract buyers continued to receive Russian material at an average of Rb125,000-142,000/tonne CPT Moscow, including VAT.

MEGlobal is a fully integrated supplier of monoethylene glycol (MEG) and diethylene glycol (DEG), collectively known as ethylene glycol (EG).
MRC

China to draw down crude inventories on rebound in October oil processing amid weak imports

China to draw down crude inventories on rebound in October oil processing amid weak imports

MOSCOW (MRC) -- A rebound in China's crude oil processing in October coupled with a sharp drop in imports of the fuel means the world's biggest crude buyer is back to drawing down inventories, reported Reuters.

China's refineries used 58.4 MM tons of crude in October, equivalent to about 13.75 MMbpd, up from the 16-month low of 13.64 MMbpd in September.

But the total volume of crude available to refineries from both imports and domestic output was just 54.63 MM tons, or about 12.86 MMbpd.

This means that refineries processed about 890,000 bpd more crude than what was available from imports and domestic production, meaning that they had to draw down on inventories.

China doesn't disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles. But an estimate can be made by deducting the total amount of crude available from imports and domestic output from the amount of crude processed.

In the past seven mos, China's refineries have processed more crude than what was available on five occasions.

However, strong stockpile builds in the first quarter of the 2021 mean that for the first 10 mos overall, China has added about 150,000 bpd to its commercial or strategic storages.

But even this modest build is well below what has been the pattern of the last several years, as China has consistently imported crude well beyond its consumption as it built up its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). For example, in 2020, China's imports and domestic output combined were some 1.26 MMbpd more than refinery throughput.

China's appetite for crude oil imports has been a major driver of demand growth for the fuel in recent years, but it's likely that 2021 will see that dynamic come to a halt.

Imports for the first 10 mos of the year were 10.21 MMbpd, down 7.2% on the same period in 2020, according to official customs data. October imports were just 8.9 MMbpd, the lowest since September 2018.

There are several factors behind the weakness in imports, with some of them being transitory, such as a lack of import quotas for independent refiners and a wider power shortage that led to energy-intensive industries, such as oil refining, scaling back output in order to conserve electricity.

China's crude imports are likely to stage a recovery in November and December as refiners work to ensure adequate fuel supplies for the northern winter.

As MRC wrote previously, China's crude throughput rose 0.8% to 13.81 million b/d in October from a 17-month low in September.

We remind that the average utilisation rate at China's four state-owned refiners fell to a five-month low of 80.6% in October from 81.5% in September while independent refiners also maintained run rates at low levels due to feedstock shortage. These would likely lead the country's crude throughputs to extend the downward trend in October from the 17-month low of 13.7 million b/d, or 56.07 million mt, in September, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The four state oil companies -- Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC and Sinochem - plan to process a total 7.67 million b/d of crudes in October, against their nameplate capacity of 9.52 million b/d, Platts data showed. This compared with a planned throughput of 7.7 million b/d in September. In November, the state-run refiners plan to lift throughput from the low base in October to boost gasoil and gasoline supplies for meeting domestic demand, refining sources said.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,868,160 tonnes in the first nine months of 2021, up by 18% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 1,138,510 tonnes in January-September 2021, up by 30% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of injection moulding statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) decreased significantly.
MRC