MOSCOW (MRC) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Nov. 16 signaled a likely easing of oil market tightness, forecasting world supply to rise by 1.5 million b/d in November-December on the back of a US output resurgence, and highlighting a recovery from refinery maintenance, reported S&P Global.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based IEA noted that high prices, driven partly by the policies of OPEC+ nations, were serving both to "temper" the recovery in oil demand and spur US shale output.
The IEA nudged up its 2022 demand growth estimate by 100,000 b/d to 3.4 million b/d, saying demand was being supported by "robust gasoline consumption and increasing international travel," but added, "new COVID waves in Europe, weaker industrial activity and higher oil prices will temper gains."
On the supply side it revised its fourth-quarter supply estimate higher by 330,000 b/d and said supply by the end of the year would reach 99.2 million b/d, up 6.4 million b/d year on year.
In the refining segment, the IEA signaled a return from major maintenance impacts, saying throughput globally would rise by 3 million b/d between October and December before "pausing" in the first half of 2022.
As MRC informed before, US commercial crude stocks fell 3.48 million barrels to 413.96 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 17, to more than 8% below the five-year average, Energy Information Administration data showed. Stocks were last lower Oct. 5, 2018.
We remind that in late August, 2021, US crude stocks dropped sharply while petroleum products supplied by refiners hit an all-time record despite the rise in coronavirus cases nationwide, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels in the week to Aug. 27 to 425.4 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3.1 million-barrel drop. Product supplied by refineries, a measure of demand, rose to 22.8 million barrels per day in the most recent week. That's a one-week record, and signals strength in consumption for diesel, gasoline and other fuels by consumers and exporters.
We also remind that US crude oil production is expected to fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.12 million bpd, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 210,000 bpd.