Asian refinery margins back to pre-COVID levels due to doubling of gasoil profits

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asian oil refiners' margins have rallied back to their highest since before the COVID-19 pandemic struck, spurred by a doubling of gasoil profits as the global economic recovery and power shortage drive demand for the fuel, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing with reference to analysts and traders' statement.

Gasoil demand has surged as power generators seek alternatives to record-high natural gas and coal and as industrial consumption has climbed while economies reopen from COVID-19 restrictions. That has pushed the gasoil profit margin nearly 60% higher in the past month, replacing gasoline as the key component of overall refinery profits.

The Singapore complex refining margin, a proxy for Asian refiners' profitability, jumped to more than USD7 a barrel earlier this month, the highest since September 2019.

The rebound will incentivise Asian refiners to boost output in the coming months although regional supplies of refined oil products are expected to stay capped by declining Chinese exports and low inventories.

"We see improving momentum for Asian refiners ahead, benefiting not just from the near-term gas-to-oil switching this winter but also on peaking of Chinese oil products exports," Citi analyst Oscar Yee said in a note, raising the bank's outlook for South Korea's SK Innovation, Thailand's Star Petroleum Refining Pcl and IRPC PCL, and Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical Corp.

The release of pent-up demand could see regional gasoline consumption rising by some 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) over November and December, while gasoil demand is expected to rise by some 200,000 bpd between now and December, underpinned by the resumption of more economic activities, said Dylan Sim, an analyst at consultancy FGE.

"Low exports from China will continue to support Asia’s gasoil complex through to the end of 2021," he said.

Also, middle distillate inventories across key storage hubs in Asia are at their lowest for this time of the year since 2013 and are now 9.1 million barrels lower than the 2017-2019 average, Sim said, after refiners cut output because of the recent lower profits.

Global power shortages caused by natural gas and coal price spikes will also drive consumers to switch to diesel for power. Consultancy Rystad Energy expects the switch in fuels to boost Asia's oil demand by 400,000 bpd on average over the next six months.

We remind that, as MRC wrote earlier, Formosa Plastics Company (FPC), part of Formosa Petrochemical, is in plans to take off-stream its No. 1 cracker in Mailiao, Taiwan for a scheduled turnaround on 8 June, 2021. This cracker with an annual capacity of 700,000 tons of ethylene and 350,000 tons of propylene is expected to remain shut unitl mid-July, 2021.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,396,960 tonnes in January-July 2021, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 841,990 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, up by 29% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymers (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- With the demonstration plant, Topsoe will validate its electrified technology for cost-competitive production of sustainable Methanol from biogas as well as other sustainable products, said Hydrocarbonprocesiing.

The global annual production of methanol is around 110 MM tons. With close to 1.4 ton CO2 being emitted per produced ton methanol, the emission reduction potential – and hereof the positive societal impact – is enormous, assuming all methanol is being produced by means of a carbon neutral process and sustainable feedstock, leaving a significant positive societal impact.

The project is supported by the EUDP Energy Technology Development and Demonstration Program and is developed together with Aarhus University. The climate benefits from using sustainable Methanol is not limited to one single purpose. Sustainable Methanol can be used for marine fuel, blend in gasoline, and for the chemical industry, where methanol is mainly used today. Further, the main feature in the demonstration plant is Topsoe’s eSMRTM technology, which enables not only the production of sustainable Methanol, but also other sustainable products like green hydrogen, green ammonia, eFuels, and more.

"Fighting climate change demands clean fuels for all sectors. With this initiative, we will demonstrate that we are able to transform classical production process into a fully carbon-neutral scheme. Specifically, we will demonstrate that sustainable Methanol can be produced from biogas at a very competitive cost compared to other green methanol produced from non-fossil fuels,” says Kim Gron Knudsen, Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer at Haldor Topsoe.

"We are very happy about the accomplishments in the joint project so far. The new electrified steam methane reforming technology is central in a future based on renewable energy and circular bioeconomy and the eSMR demo plant fits perfectly into our energy research facility in Foulum. We see many interesting perspectives in this new technology, and we look forward to unlock the potential of further development and integration of the technology in the energy system of the future,” says Thomas Lundgaard, project manager at Aarhus University, Dept. of Biological and Chemical Engineering.

The demonstration program is part of Topsoe’s ambition to take part in the global movement to reduce the global carbon footprint and one of many initiatives to develop solutions for sustainable aviation, shipping and heavy transportation in general.

As per MRC, Dow (Midland, Michigan), the world's petrochemical major, and Haldor Topsoe have partnered to promote the circular economy. About 300 million tons of plastic waste is produced every year on a global scale. The partnership between Dow and Topsoe marks a new initiative to efficiently convert waste plastics to circular plastics, keeping them out of the environment and responsibly reclaiming their value.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,396,960 tonnes in January-July 2021, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 841,990 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, up by 29% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymers (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- British refiner Essar Oil plans to build two low-carbon hydrogen plants at its Standlow refinery in northwest England at a cost of 750 million pounds (USD1 billion), according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The company has submitted planning applications for the project, it said in a statement.

If approved, construction of the two so-called “blue hydrogen” plants, where the fuel is produced from natural gas and carbon emissions from its production are captured and stored, will begin at the end of 2022 with output expected to begin from the mid-2020s.

As MRC informed earlier, in late September 2019, Essar resumed operations at its cracker in Stanlow, UK with the capacity of 45,000 mt/year of ethylene and 165,000 mt/year of propylene. It was shut on 11 September, 2019, due to the power outage at the site.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,396,960 tonnes in January-July 2021, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 841,990 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, up by 29% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymers (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Air Products will develop a USD4.5 billion clean energy complex near Burnside in Ascension Parish, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing with reference to Gov. John Bel Edwards and Air Products’ Chairman, President and CEO Seifi Ghasemi's statement.

This will also be the world’s largest permanent carbon dioxide sequestration endeavor to date. Air Products will construct a blue hydrogen manufacturing complex to produce more than 750 million standard cubic feet per day of blue hydrogen, with carbon dioxide from the manufacturing process captured and permanently sequestered. The plant will be the first carbon-capture project in Louisiana for Air Products, a world-leading industrial gas manufacturer that provides hydrogen and other gases to refineries, petrochemical plants and other customers in Louisiana, across the Gulf Coast and around the globe.

“This is a major industrial investment that will create quality manufacturing jobs while limiting environmental impacts, a goal envisioned by my Climate Initiatives Task Force,” Gov. Edwards said. “Carbon capture and sequestration are important to Louisiana’s efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while maintaining jobs and growing our manufacturing base. This project is a clear demonstration of our ability to grow the Louisiana economy while lowering the carbon footprint of industry."

"Blue" products are made using hydrocarbons as a feedstock, with carbon dioxide from the production process captured for permanent sequestration. Carbon dioxide is recognized as a major source of human-caused emissions contributing to climate change. Carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS, keeps the greenhouse gas out of the atmosphere by capturing it at the production site and storing it in reservoirs far underground.

About 95% of the carbon dioxide generated at the Air Products facility will be captured, compressed and transported by pipeline to multiple inland sequestration sites located along a pipeline corridor extending up to 35 miles to the east of the complex. More than five million metric tons per year of carbon dioxide will be permanently sequestered in geologic pore space secured from the State of Louisiana about a mile below ground. Air Products has received approval from the State Mineral and Energy Board for the permanent sequestration of the carbon dioxide.

The project is expected to be operational in 2026.

As MRC reported earlier, in September 2021, SaudinAramco, Air Products, ACWA Power and Air Products Qudra signed a deal for the asset acquisition and project financing of a USD12bn air separation unit (ASU)/gasification/ power joint venture (JV) at Jazan Economic City in Saudi Arabia.

We remind that Saudi Aramco said in March, 2021, it restructured its debt financing for Sadara Chemical Company, its joint venture (JV) with Dow Chemical, an American petrochemical major. The Saudi national oil company also said an agreement had been reached to allocate more natural gas feedstock to the joint venture, which has been building the world’s biggest chemical complex ever delivered in a single phase, in Jubail. Saudi Aramco and Dow have agreed to guarantee up to an aggregate of USD3.7 billion of senior debt principal in proportion to their ownership interests in Sadara, Aramco said in a stock exchange filing.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,396,960 tonnes in January-July 2021, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 841,990 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, up by 29% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymers (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- SIBUR, Russia’s leading petrochemicals producer, the largest international chemical companies and the World Economic Forum agreed on establishing a breakthrough pre-competitive development platform, designed to accelerate net-zero climate technologies, said the company.

The LCET members including Sibur, Air Liquide, BASF, Clariant, Covestro, Dow, Mitsubishi Chemical Corp., Royal DSM, SABIC, Solvay and the World Economic Forum agreed to set up a company by the end of 2023 to share early-stage risks and co-invest in developing and improving low-carbon-emitting technologies. The collaboration targets public and private partnerships, cooperation on common challenges and finding joint solutions to those challenges on the path to net-zero emissions.

"SIBUR believes that the petrochemical industry has technological, industrial and scientific potential in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to a low-carbon economy,’’ said Darya Borisova, managing director, board member at SIBUR. The company has been consistently incorporating ESG principles into all business processes, in accordance with its Sustainable Development Strategy to 2025".

SIBUR is taking active steps to reduce its own climate impact and adapt to climate changes, using a range of decarbonisation tools.

One of the company’s key projects contributing to the circular economy and lower greenhouse gas emissions is production of green PET granules using recycled plastics at the Polief plant in Blagoveshchensk. The granules will contain up to 25% of recycled materials and will meet the growing market demand for eco-packaging. The use of recycled materials will also reduce the specific energy intensity of polymer production and, as result, decrease greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The company started implementing the investment phase of the project in 2020 and the production start is planned for 2022.

As part of the company’s goal to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 15% by 2025, SIBUR in June signed an agreement with Linde’s Russian unit for a joint utilization project focusing on the carbon dioxide generated as a by-product at Sibur’s facility in Dzerzhinsk. The company will transport crude carbon dioxide to a gas treatment unit that will be built by Linde to process crude CO2 into a commercial-grade product usable in the food industry. The project will help utilize about 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year.

Chemicals are essential for more than 95% of the world’s manufactured goods and the sector is currently responsible for around 5% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Worldwide product demand is expected to quadruple by 2050. The Forum’s LCET initiative entered its next implementation stage with the chemical companies’ collaboration agreement. The LCET initiative calls for new ways to finance net-zero solutions, sharing expertise and reducing investment risks.

According to ICIS-MRC Price report, SIBUR Tobolsk will reduce its capacity utilisation in October due to problems with raw materials. But by November, the company intends to resolve the problem with the shortage of feedstocks for PP production. The annual production capacity is 500,000 tonnes.

SIBUR is the largest vertically integrated gas processing and petrochemical company in Russia, uniting a number of production sites in various regions of the Russian Federation. The company sells products to consumers in the fuel and energy complex, automotive, construction, consumer goods, chemical and other industries in more than 80 countries around the world.
MRC