Asia crude oil imports stay soft in September

Asia crude oil imports stay soft in September

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Despite a rally in crude oil prices to three-year highs, there is scant evidence that demand in the top importing region of Asia is recovering. In fact, imports across the region dropped in September from the previous month, as high prices and economic disruption from the coronavirus pandemic continued to affect fuel demand, reported Reuters.

What there is early evidence of is that the major producers in the OPEC+ group of exporters are re-gaining market share lost due to their earlier output cuts, as they ramp up production and cut their official selling prices.

Asia's crude imports were 22.99 MM barrels per day (bpd) in September, according to Refinitiv Oil Research, down from 23.24 MMbpd in August and only just above July's 22.61 MMbpd.

China, the world's biggest crude importer, brought in 9.6 MMbpd last month, down from August's 10.53 MMbpd, according to Refinitiv's vessel-tracking and port data.

The softness in September imports are most likely a reflection of the high official selling prices (OSPs) for Middle Eastern grades that prevailed at the time when September-arriving cargoes would have been arranged. Also, a lack of available crude import and product export quotas may have constrained buying by China's independent refiners, who account for about one-third of its oil demand.

September arrivals would have been booked around June and July, and it's worth noting that since then the major Middle East exporters have moved to cut their OSPs, as well as boost output in line with an agreement by the OPEC+ group to add back 400,000 bpd every month from August to December.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, lowered its OSP for its benchmark Arab Light grade to Asian customers for November-loading cargoes by 40 cents a barrel (bbl), to a premium of USD1.30 a bbl to regional benchmark, the Oman/Dubai average. It was the second consecutive month the OSP was cut, and the premium for Arab Light has now dropped by USD2.60 a bbl in the past two months, having been set at USD3 a bbl for September-loading cargoes.

This reduction in the Saudi OSP, which has been largely matched by other key Middle Eastern exporters such as Kuwait and Iraq, was followed by news that Saudi Aramco, the state-controlled oil giant, will supply additional crude to at least three Asian buyers in November, while meeting full contracted volumes for four others. It seems that Aramco is keen to keep its oil competitive in Asia with a combination of lower prices and increased supply, working to take market share amid stagnant overall demand in the region.

We remind that As MRC wrote before, Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), said in June 2021 that he expects the company's deal with Saudi Aramco to materialise this year. RIL had in 2019 announced its interest to sell 20% stake in the company’s flagship chemicals and refining business to Saudi Aramco in a deal valued at USD15 billion. Last fiscal, RIL carved out its oil-to-chemicals business into a separate entity, to facilitate on boarding of strategic partners like Aramco.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,396,960 tonnes in January-July 2021, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 841,990 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, up by 29% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymers (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.
MRC

Nigerian Dangote in talks with traders for oil refinery loan

Nigerian Dangote in talks with traders for oil refinery loan

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Africa's richest man Aliko Dangote is in talks with some of the world's biggest oil traders to help finance his mega refinery project outside of Nigeria's commercial centre Lagos, sources with knowledge of the matter said, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The 650,000 barrel-per-day refinery, once complete, will be the continent's largest plant and redraw major trade flows of crude and fuel in the Atlantic basin. Despite being Africa's biggest oil producer and exporter, the country depends almost entirely on fuel imports after allowing its significant refining capacity, 445,000 barrels-per-day, to become dilapidated over several decades.

Many past and current Nigerian officials, including President Muhammadu Buhari, have announced plans to refurbish them but political will has been lacking. The Natural Resources Governance Institute, a non-profit policy think tank, has previously pointed to the moribund refineries as a key focus of oil corruption and waste in the country.

Hit by economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and soaring construction costs, Dangote needs a cash injection.

Nigeria's state oil firm NNPC has to agreed to buy a 20% stake in the refinery for about USD2.8 billion but Dangote is looking for outside cash. read more NNPC's head Mele Kyari said a process was on-going to raise USD1 billion with Afreximbank to fund part of its stake purchase.

The billionaire has held talks as recently as a month ago with executives from the world's top two oil traders - Trafigura and Vitol. Trafigura and Vitol declined to comment. A spokesperson for the Dangote Group did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Two sources with direct knowledge said the option of raising another USD500 million from a trade house or consortium was being actively explored. The details of a potential loan from a trading firm have not been finalised but the trader could receive a long-term contract to supply crude and receive cargoes of refined products as repayment.

The refinery has been delayed by several years and the cost has ballooned to $19 billion from Dangote's earlier estimates of USD12-14 billion. Construction was also delayed due to COVID-19 outbreaks among workers at the site and delays getting materials, two sources with knowledge of the project said

Many industry sources do not expect any products before the second half of next year. Swiss traders like Vitol along with Nigerian firms, have cashed-in for years in gasoline-short Nigeria by supplying mega tenders and being part of lucrative crude-for-fuel swap deals for over a decade.

Getting a hold of Dangote's fuel will give the trader a stranglehold on a key set of new oil flows. Nigeria's new oil bill, approved last month after nearly 20 years of political wrangling, has added fuel-import licence requirements that experts fear will give Dangote an effective monopoly.

Under the new laws, the regulator will prioritize local refiners for import licences and volumes would be based on production capacity or market share. While Nigeria will remain open in theory to international trading houses, a partnership with Dangote would be the only way to guarantee a foothold in Africa's biggest economy.

As per MRC, in May this year, Four oil firms including Nigeria's state-oil company approached Dangote Industries to acquire a stake in Africa's largest oil refinery.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,396,960 tonnes in January-July 2021, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 841,990 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, up by 29% year on year.
MRC

U.S. plastics industry trade improves in 2021 after 2020 pandemic slump

U.S. plastics industry trade improves in 2021 after 2020 pandemic slump

MOSCOW (MRC) -- During the 2020 COVID-19 recession, stimulated by federal relief dollars, U.S. plastics consumption held up at a time when employment was down and capacity was constrained, a new report from the Plastics Industry Associations says, with the result being higher imports and a trade deficit, said Canplastics.

The U.S. plastics industry’s trade balance fell to a USD5.5 billion deficit in 2020, from a US$0.7 billion surplus in 2019, according to executive summary of the Plastics Industry Association’s Global Trends report, which was released Oct. 13.

Industry exports fell 8.2 per cent and imports rose 1.8%, the summary said, with Mexico and Canada remaining the U.S. plastics industry’s largest export markets. In 2020, the industry exported USD13.7 billion to Mexico and USD11.7 billion to Canada.

“The industry had its largest trade surplus with Mexico in 2020 – USВ8.2 billion,” the summary said. “China is the industry’s third largest export market; however, the industry, overall, had its largest trade deficit with China – USD15.3 billion in 2020."

The estimated value of domestic shipments fell 2.2 per cent in 2020, to US$282.8 billion. “Shipments figures were depressed by the COVID-19 recession, supply chain constraints and lower prices,” the summary said. “Exports amounted to 20.4 per cent of domestic shipments in 2020, down from 21.8 per cent in 2019."

The U.S. plastic resin sector, meanwhile, had a US$18.6 billion surplus in 2020, which was down 6.9 per cent from the US$20.0 billion surplus in 2019. “U.S. resin exports decreased 9.1 per cent in dollar terms from 2019 to 2020, while imports decreased 12.0 per cent,” the summary said. “Lower resin prices were a factor."

And the U.S. plastics machinery industry registered a US$2.0 billion trade deficit in 2020, the summary said, which doesn’t show much change from 2019. “Exports fell 14.4 per cent, and imports fell 6.5 per cent,” the summary said. “The industry had its largest surplus with Mexico at USD184 million, and its largest deficit with Germany at
USD772 million."

“Although the merchandise trade outlook is much brighter this year, uncertainties remain and depend largely on global economic recovery,” said Plastics Industry Association chief economist Perc Pineda. “While the U.S. plastics industry trade volume rose 27.9 per cent in the first six months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, it still has a plastics trade deficit. The large and growing plastics industry outside the U.S. will continue to compete with the U.S. for overseas markets as well as for their own domestic markets.”

Canada and Mexico will continue to be the two largest export markets and are also the top sources of U.S. plastics imports, the summary noted, and the manufacturing sector’s supply chain in these countries was strengthened with the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). “The updated free trade pact, United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), should further enhance trade among the three countries, which is important particularly as global manufacturing is experiencing supply chain difficulties,” the summary said. The 2021 complete Global Trends report is available to download for free for members and is available for purchase to non-members here.

As per MRC, Jokey Group (Germany) and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) intend in the future to jointly promote a working economy with a closed cycle of using plastic packaging in Germany. The companies announced a collaboration, one of the goals of which is to create closed cycles for the use of plastics, allowing the reuse and production of high-quality recycled granules.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PET consumption totalled 411,200 tonnes in the first six month of 2021, up by 12% year on year. Russian companies processed 62,910 tonnes in June, compared to 85,890 tonnes a month earlier.
MRC

Saudi Arabia to require foreign energy companies to boost domestic input to 70%

Saudi Arabia to require foreign energy companies to boost domestic input to 70%

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Saudi Arabia will require foreign firms working in the energy sector, including petrochemicals and water desalination, to boost local input to at least 70% in order to secure government contracts, reported Reuters.

Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman discussed the plan to increase domestic input with local and international energy executives at a gathering in the Eastern city of Dammam last week, they said, confirming a video recording of his comments seen by Reuters.

He said the energy ministry would hold an event to announce the timeline, targets and mechanism for the plan, the latest effort to create new industries and generate jobs under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's push to diversify the economy of the world's top oil exporter away from crude revenues.

Requirements for energy sector local content - which include workers, supplies and operations as well as added value - are currently around 30 to 35% but it is not clear how strictly these are enforced.

Authorities had already earlier this year handed foreign firms an ultimatum to set up regional headquarters by 2023 or risk losing out on government contracts in a bid to attract foreign capital and talent.

In the recorded remarks obtained by Reuters the prince did not specifically mention the link to government contracts when disclosing that all companies operating in the kingdom, including international firms, would have to raise the percentage of local services and energy-related products to 70%.

The three sources said securing government contracts would be contingent on meeting the new requirement for local content, which would require companies to invest heavily.

The Saudi energy ministry and the government's media office CIC did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

As MRC informed before, Worley has just been awarded a services contract for a residue upgrade project at Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery. The project will convert low-value refinery residue into higher-value products including gasoline, jet fuel and ultra-low sulfur diesel.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,396,960 tonnes in January-July 2021, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 841,990 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, up by 29% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymers (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.
MRC

Qatar Petroleum changes its name to Qatar Energy to reflect broader strategy

Qatar Petroleum changes its name to Qatar Energy to reflect broader strategy

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Qatar changed the name of its state-owned oil and gas firm to Qatar Energy from Qatar Petroleum to reflect what it said was a broader strategy but said it had no plans to sell assets to raise funds as other Gulf state producers have, reported Reuters.

"We have plenty of cash," Chief Executive Saad al-Kaabi said on Monday, indicating the Qatari firm would not follow in the footsteps of Gulf rivals which have sold assets, such as Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).

Kaabi, who is also minister of state for energy, said the new name better represented a broader strategy included a focus on energy efficiency and environmentally-friendly technology such as capturing and storing carbon dioxide.

Qatar is the world's biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Qatar Energy handles the country's LNG production and its more modest oil output, alongside a range of other industries, such as a gas-to-liquids project and petrochemicals production.

Amid surging global gas prices, Qatar aims to expand LNG output to 127 million tons a year by 2027 from 77 million tons.

Kaabi said gas, which generates lower emissions than other fossil fuels such as oil and coal, would remain part of the global energy mix for years to come even as the world shifts to more renewable energy sources.

As MRC informed earlier, in July 2021, Qatar Petroleum entered into a long-term Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Shell for the supply of 1 million tons per year of LNG to the People's Republic of China for ten years. China is considered a major customer for the State of Qatar and a strategic partner in the energy sector. With the conclusion of this agreement, China will be supplied with approximately 12 MPTA of LNG under long term SPAs from Qatar.

We remind that Royal Dutch Shell plans to reduce its refining and chemicals portfolio by more than half, it said in July 2020 without giving a precise timeframe. The move is part of the Anglo-Dutch company's plan to shrink its oil and gas business and expand its renewables and power division to reduce greenhouse gas emissions sharply by 2050.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,396,960 tonnes in January-July 2021, up by 7% year on year. Shipments of all grades of ethylene polymers increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 841,990 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, up by 29% year on year. Supply of propylene homopolymers (homopolymer PP) and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased, whereas supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.
MRC