Limited flights and a COVID-19 cases in India will keep jet fuel demand below pre-pandemic levels

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Restrictions on long-distance flights and the surge in COVID-19 in India will keep jet fuel demand below pre-pandemic levels over the coming months, even as an easing of lockdown in some parts of the world boosts jet fuel demand, said Reuters.

Vaccination success and reduced infection rates in Western countries are allowing travel to resume. It will, however, be dominated by short-haul flights, which account for almost two thirds of the total fuel used by the sector, but on average use around 35 times less fuel than long-haul flights, the International Energy Agency estimates.

The result will be jet fuel demand of around 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, almost 30% higher than 2020, but below the 8 million bpd of 2019 before the pandemic struck, energy consultancy FGE says.

Goldman Sachs expected jet fuel demand would rise to 3.9 million bpd in May, compared to the low of 2.2 million bpd in May 2020. It predicted demand of almost 5.5 million bpd by the end of the year, compared with 7 million bpd at the same time in 2019.

"You see the passenger numbers are recovering, but they are flying shorter distances, so the relationship between the passenger number and the jet fuel demand is distorted," Cuneyt Kazokoglu, head of oil demand analysis at FGE, said.

"For the full recovery, we need international travel to recover as well, and for that we have to reach a certain level of vaccination, not just in a couple of countries."

As per MRC, jet fuel demand is picking up, which could give refiners some hope after the global pandemic boosted distillate inventories and sank margins. Refiners have been mixing jet fuel into diesel inventories for the last several months, since they have been unable to sell the product due to the sharp decline in air travel.

Indian state refiners' local fuel sales in April declined due to state-level restrictions aimed at stemming a rampant second wave of coronavirus infections, preliminary data shows. The deadly second wave topped 400,000 new daily cases for the first time on Saturday. Authorities reported 401,993 new cases in the previous 24 hours, the highest daily count globally, after 10 consecutive days over 300,000. Deaths from COVID-19 jumped by 3,523, taking the total toll in India to 211,853.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 576,270 tonnes in the first three month of 2021, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) shipments increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 410,890 tonnes in January-March 2021, up by 56% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Technip Energies has been awarded a large(1) Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning (EPCC) contract by Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) for its Para Xylene (PX) and Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) complex project at Paradip, Orissa, on the East Coast of India, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

This EPCC contract covers the delivery of a new 1.2 MMTPA(2) PTA plant and associated facilities. PTA is a major raw material used to manufacture polyester fibers, PET bottles and polyester film used in packaging applications.

Marco Villa, Chief Operating Officer of Technip Energies commented: “We are pleased to be awarded another prestigious contract by Indian Oil Corporation Limited. We look forward to starting this significant project which illustrates our commitment to India – a core market for us. It also significantly consolidates our leading position for executing complex petrochemical projects."

Paradip Refinery is the most-modern refinery in India. Its products meet the energy demands of the domestic market and are partly exported. With the aim to create a value chain, Paradip Refinery has ventured into petrochemicals with the production of Polypropylene (PP), Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG), and is now going into Para Xylene (PX) and Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) production. The availability of PTA at Paradip will provide a boost to polyester manufacturing facilities in the vicinity.

As per MRC, Technip Energies has been recently awarded a significant Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning (EPCC) contract by Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) for its BR9 Expansion Project in Barauni, Bihar, in the Eastern part of India. This EPCC contract covers the installation of a new Once-through Hydrocracker Unit (OHCU) of 1 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) capacity, a Fuel Gas Treatment Unit (FGTU) and the associated facilities. The OHCU, in combination with downstream refinery units, will enable production of BS VI Grade fuels - similar to Euro VI Grade fuels - and petrochemicals.

Paraxylene is a raw material for the synthesis of terephthalic acid - an intermediate product for the production of polyethylene terephthalate (PET).

According to MRC's ScanPlast, in March of this year, the total estimated consumption of PET in Russia amounted to 64,750 tonness, which corresponds to the previous year (64,520 tonnes in 2020). Estimated PET consumption in the country increased in January - March 2021 compared to the same period last year by 5% and amounted to 182,300 tonnes.

Technip Energies has a strong footprint in India and local presence in Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Dahej.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asian refining margins for 10 ppm gasoil posted their sixth consecutive weekly rise on Friday as spring refinery turnarounds tightened regional supplies, reported Reuters.

Refining margins, also known as cracks, for 10 ppm gasoil remained unchanged at USD7.57 per barrel over Dubai crude during Asian trading hours.

The cracks have gained 4.4% this week, and have risen about 15% in the last month, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. The gasoil market, however, is expected to come under pressure in the coming weeks as refineries returning from maintenance ramp up production, while coronavirus lockdowns in India and Japan dampen demand for the industrial fuel. India reported another record daily rise in coronavirus cases on Friday, and traders expect wider impending lockdowns would result in soaring fuel exports from the country.

Cash differentials for gasoil with 10 ppm sulphur content were at a discount of 10 cents per barrel to Singapore quotes on Friday, while the May/June time spread for the benchmark gasoil grade traded at a narrow contango of minus 1 cent a barrel.

China's crude oil imports in April fell 0.2% from a year earlier as refiners curbed production to relieve a squeeze in profit margins brought about by rising crude oil prices and bulging inventories. The world's biggest crude oil buyer brought in 40.36 million tonnes of crude oil in April, or 9.82 million barrels per day (bpd), data from the General Administration of Customs showed. That was the lowest since December and was down from 11.69 million bpd of imports in March.

Gasoil stocks held independently in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub slipped 0.8% to 2.2 million tonnes in the week ended May 6, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed.

ARA jet fuel inventories dropped 3.5% on-week to 946,000 tonnes.

Oil prices steadied on Friday and were set for a weekly gain against the backdrop of optimism over a global economic recovery, though the COVID-19 crisis in India capped prices.

As MRC informed before, slumping fuel consumption during the pandemic is accelerating the long-term shift of refining capacity from North America and Europe to Asia, and from older, smaller refineries to modern, higher-capacity mega-refineries. The result is a wave of closures, often centering on refineries that only narrowly survived the previous closure wave in the years after the recession in 2008/09.

We remind that PetroChina has nearly doubled the amount of Russian crude being processed at its refinery in Dalian, the company's biggest, since January 2018, as a new supply agreement had come into effect. The Dalian Petrochemical Corp, located in the northeast port city of Dalian, was expected to process 13 million tonnes, or 260,000 bpd of Russian pipeline crude in 2018, up by about 85 to 90 percent from the previous year's level. Dalian has the capacity to process about 410,000 bpd of crude. The increase follows an agreement worked out between the Russian and Chinese governments under which Russia's top oil producer Rosneft was to supply 30 million tonnes of ESPO Blend crude to PetroChina in 2018, or about 600,000 bpd. That would have represented an increase of 50 percent over 2017 volumes.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 576,270 tonnes in the first three month of 2021, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) shipments increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 410,890 tonnes in January-March 2021, up by 56% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Top US fuel pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline shut its entire network, the source of nearly half of the US East Coast's fuel supply, after a cyber attack that industry sources said was caused by ransomware, reported Reuters.

The company transports 2.5 million barrels per day of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other refined products through 5,500 miles (8,850 km) of pipelines linking refiners on the Gulf Coast to the eastern and southern United States.

Colonial shut down systems to contain the threat after learning of the attack on Friday, it said in a statement.

That action has temporarily halted operations and affected some of its IT systems, the company said.

While the US government investigation is in its early stages, one former US government official and two industry sources said the hackers are most likely a highly professional cybercriminal group. Investigators are looking into whether a group dubbed "DarkSide" by the cybersecurity research community is responsible, the former government official said.

Colonial has engaged a third-party cybersecurity firm to launch an investigation and contacted law enforcement and other federal agencies, it said. Cybersecurity company FireEye has been brought in to respond to the attack, the cybersecurity industry sources said. FireEye declined to comment when asked if it was working on the incident.

The US Transportation Security Administration told Reuters it is working with other agencies on the situation.

During the trading session on Friday, gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 0.6% to settle at USD2.1269 a gallon, while diesel futures rose 1.1% to settle at USD2.0106 a gallon - both outpacing gains in crude oil. Gulf Coast cash prices for gasoline and diesel, meanwhile, edged lower on prospects that supplies could accumulate in the region.

"As every day goes by, it becomes a greater and greater impact on Gulf Coast oil refining," said Andrew Lipow, president of consultancy Lipow Oil Associates. "Refiners would have to react by reducing crude processing because they've lost part of the distribution system."

If the system is shut for four or five days, the market could see sporadic outages at fuel terminals that depend on the pipeline for deliveries, he said. Gulf Coast prices could weaken further, while prices in New York Harbor could rise, one market participant said - gains that could portend increases at the Northeast pumps.

As MRC informed previously, on 7 October, 2020, Braskem informed its shareholders and the market that, in view of an identified cyber-attack occurred in its Information Technology environment, the protection system interrupted, as a precautionary measure, the access to some of its servers and software, impacting its operations. And in a couple of weeks after the cyber-attack that led the company to declare force majeure in Brazil, Braskem notified that its systems were back online and restored normal operations.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 576,270 tonnes in the first three month of 2021, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) shipments increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 410,890 tonnes in January-March 2021, up by 56% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Indian state refiners have placed orders for regular supplies from Saudi Aramco for June, after reducing purchases this month, drawn by lower prices by the world’s top oil exporter, reporte Reuters with reference to four sources' statement.

The refiners - Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd - normally buy 14.8 million-15 million barrels of Saudi oil a month.

“This time there is no direction from the ministry to cut imports in June and unlike last time they (Aramco) have reduced the prices as well,” said one of the sources.

Saudi Arabia has cut the June official selling prices (OSPs) of all crude grades it sells to Asia. It set the June OSP for the flagship Arab light crude at USD1.7 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average for Asia, down 10 cents from May and its first price cut since December last year, sources told Reuters.

India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, imports more than 80% of its oil needs and relies heavily on the Middle East.

As MRC wrote previously, in April 2021, Mammoet completed the lifting of three columns for the Guru Gobind Singh Polymer Expansion Project in Bathinda, Punjab, India. Thus, the team lifted a 1,305t ethylene fractionator, and 2 propylene fractionators weighing 1,200t and 2,490t - the second of which was lifted in two sections.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 576,270 tonnes in the first three month of 2021, up by 4% year on year. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) shipments increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market totalled 410,890 tonnes in January-March 2021, up by 56% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC