Refiners may get some hope on recovery of jet fuel demand

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Jet fuel demand is picking up, which could give refiners some hope after the global pandemic boosted distillate inventories and sank margins, reported Reuters with reference to a senior refining executive.

Refiners have been mixing jet fuel into diesel inventories for the last several months, since they have been unable to sell the product due to the sharp decline in air travel.

“Jet fuel demand numbers are starting to improve and show signs of life, allowing refiners to drop less jet into diesel which will eventually provide well-needed relief on distillate stock,” said Joe Israel, chief executive officer of Par Pacific, a West Coast refiner.

Distillate margins are averaging USD5.17 a barrel in the first quarter of 2021, approximately half the levels of the prior-year quarter, according to energy consultancy Tudor, Pickering and Holt.

Jet fuel recovery has lagged gasoline demand, which is already touching pre-pandemic levels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

In the first quarter of 2021, world refiners’ utilized capacity was 10% to 15% lower than pre-pandemic levels, but refiners expect it to increase in coming months. “Considering the recovery assumptions, expectations are for world refineries to close that gap to approximately 5% through the summer,” Israel said.

As MRC informed before, renewed lockdown restrictions in Europe and slower than expected vaccine rollouts are likely to check a global recovery in fuel demand and make OPEC+ oil producers take a cautious stance when the group reassesses output policy in early April.

Oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Mexico's Petroleos Mexicanos expects to maintain financial debt of USD105 billion between 2021 and 2025 and increase crude refining, the state oil company said, as per Reuters.

Pemex, as the company is known, said one of its priorities will be to free up funds and gradually pay back some of its debt without necessarily taking on new obligations. "It is clear that high indebtedness represents a structural problem, attention to which should not be delayed," Pemex said in its latest business plan. "In the medium term, we do not rule out restructuring."

Ratings agencies stripped Pemex of its coveted investment grade rating last year because of its high debt and other concerns. Pemex also said it expects crude refining to be 1.1 million barrels per day this year and rise to 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025.

As MRC informed earlier, Pemex is advancing a refinery rehabilitation program that will enable it to process 1.2 million b/d of crude oil by the end of 2020 and evaluating a reconfiguration of its petrochemical facility at Cangrejera, Mexico, into what would be its eighth refinery.

We also remind that in 2016, Pemex shut its steam cracker at its Cangrejera complex for maintenance on February 15. The cracker was idle for about 14 days. The conducted repairs at the cracker were a part of planned maintenance.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,220,640 tonnes in 2020, up by 2% year on year. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, polypropylene (PP) shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.

Pemex, Mexican Petroleum, is a Mexican state-owned petroleum company. Pemex has a total asset worth of USD415.75 billion, and is the world's second largest non-publicly listed company by total market value, and Latin America's second largest enterprise by annual revenue as of 2009. Company produces such polymers, as polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS).
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The IMF predicts GDP growth in Ukraine in 2021 at 4% against 3% in the October report, Epravda said.

In 2022, growth will be 3.4%. The IMF also provided forecasts for inflation and unemployment. According to the Fund, in 2021 the price level in Ukraine will grow by 7.9%, in 2022 - by 6.8%. The unemployment rate is expected to be 8.6% in 2021, and 8.4% in 2022.

As noted in the Fund, the better predicted results for 2020 are associated with quarantine mitigations and the adaptation of economies to work in the new conditions. In addition, additional fiscal support in the "big economies" and vaccination expectations have worked.

Global growth is expected to stabilize at 3.3% over the medium term. This indicator reflects the expected damage due to reduced production, as well as factors independent of the pandemic. In particular, the slow growth of the workforce associated with aging.

In total, the IMF said that the consequences of the coronavirus crisis will be softer than the consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis. At the same time, the Fund added that countries with emerging economies and low-income countries are experiencing a bigger blow - and, accordingly, will suffer more significant losses.

Earlier it was reported that the World Bank raised its forecast for the growth of Ukraine's gross domestic product in 2021 from 3% to 3.8%.

Ukraine's real GDP decreased by 4% in 2020, nominal GDP, that is, in actual prices, amounted to UAH 4.194 trillion. The Ministry of Economy retains the forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2021 by 4.6% of GDP.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Lloyd’s Register, a professional services company specializing in engineering and technology solutions, is to deploy its asset performance and risk management solution AllAssets across 94 of Formosa Plastic Group’s (FPC) Taiwanese plants, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Formosa Plastics Group, part of Formosa Petrochemical and one of Taiwan's top petrochemical companies and a world leading producer of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resins, is working with Lloyd’s Register to achieve operational excellence through Industry 4.0. The partnership is part of a company wide programme of digitalisation that Formosa Plastics Group has introduced to enhance long-term competitiveness while maintaining its commitment to environmental protection, social prosperity and economic development.

Lloyd’s Register will deploy its AllAssets solution to reduce risk, optimise task intervals and increase asset reliability by managing integrity across their industrial assets. The petrochemicals giant will benefit from the solution’s low code approach and Model Designer tool, which will be used to enhance ‘out of the box’ risk models to integrate with Formosa Plastics Group’s unique internal processes. Once deployed, AllAssets will automate tasks to deliver process efficiencies and standardise Formosa Plastics Group’s asset inspection and maintenance integrity programmes.

As MRC wrote previously, FPC carried out maintenance works at its plant in Jenwu, Taiwan in March 2021. Affected units including a 546,000 tons/year PVC plant, 480,000 tons/year vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) plant and the 400,000 tons/year ethylene dichloride (EDC) line. It is unclear on the exact shutdown date, however, all of the units remained offline for three weeks.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall PVC production reached 169,200 tonnes in the first two months of 2021, down 4% year on year. All producers decreased production volumes over the reported period.

Formosa Petrochemical is involved primarily in the business of refining crude oil, selling refined petroleum products and producing and selling olefins (including ethylene, propylene, butadiene and BTX) from its naphtha cracking operations. Formosa Petrochemical is also the largest olefins producer in Taiwan and its olefins products are mostly sold to companies within the Formosa Group. Among the company's chemical products are paraxylene (PX), phenyl ethylene, acetone and pure terephthalic acid (PTA). The company"s plastic products include acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) resins, polystyrene (PS), polypropylene (PP) and panlite (PC).
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Spain's Repsol has halted the crude distillation unit at Puertollano due to unfavorable market conditions, reported S&P Global with reference to the company's statement.

The company's refining margin indicator has fallen to around USD0.50/barrel during January and February this year, from an average of USD2.20/b in the full year 2020 and USD5.00/b in the full year 2019.

As MRC informed previously, Repsol is seeking European pandemic recovery funds to support projects including new biofuel plants and 'green' hydrogen production made from renewable sources in a pivot away from oil and gas to supplying low-carbon energy.

We remind that Repsol's refinery at Puertollano in central Spain has recently carried out an upgrade of its olefins unit. The modernization was a part of planned maintenance of the cracker and chemical derivative plants at the end of 2020.

We also remind that Spain’s Repsol shut down its cracker in Tarragona (Spain) for maintenance in the fourth quarter of 2019. The turnaround at this steam cracker, which produces 702,000 mt/year of ethylene and 372,000 mt/year of propylene, was pushed back from Q3 2019. The exact dates of maintenance works were not disclosed.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.

Repsol S.A is an integrated Spanish oil and gas company with operations in 28 countries. The bulk of its assets are located in Spain.
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