COVID-19 - News digest as of 22.03.2021

1. Asia Distillates-Gasoil cracks decline fourth week in a row

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asian refining margins for 10 ppm gasoil fell last Friday, posting their fourth consecutive weekly reduction, while cash discounts for the industrial fuel widened amid muted demand in the physical market, reported Reuters. Refining margins, or cracks, for 10 ppm gasoil dipped 4 cents to $5.91 per barrel over Dubai crude during Asian trading hours. Cracks for the benchmark gasoil grade in Singapore have slipped 2.2% this week, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. The cracks remain at their weakest seasonal levels on record, weighed down by a sluggish demand recovery, and steady export volumes emerging from China and India that is keeping the region grappling with ample supplies. Gasoil exports from India this month are expected to exceed February's total of 1.85 million tonnes, while March-loading diesel exports from China are expected to be in a range of 2.2 million-2.3 million tonnes, Refinitiv Oil Research assessments showed. But traders remain hopeful the gasoil market would strengthen in coming months as COVID-19 vaccinations help governments lift mobility restrictions and industrial activities pick up more steam, while upcoming spring turnarounds at regional refineries would tighten supplies.


MRC

Asia Distillates-Gasoil cracks decline fourth week in a row

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Asian refining margins for 10 ppm gasoil fell last Friday, posting their fourth consecutive weekly reduction, while cash discounts for the industrial fuel widened amid muted demand in the physical market, reported Reuters.

Refining margins, or cracks, for 10 ppm gasoil dipped 4 cents to $5.91 per barrel over Dubai crude during Asian trading hours.

Cracks for the benchmark gasoil grade in Singapore have slipped 2.2% this week, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. The cracks remain at their weakest seasonal levels on record, weighed down by a sluggish demand recovery, and steady export volumes emerging from China and India that is keeping the region grappling with ample supplies.

Gasoil exports from India this month are expected to exceed February's total of 1.85 million tonnes, while March-loading diesel exports from China are expected to be in a range of 2.2 million-2.3 million tonnes, Refinitiv Oil Research assessments showed. But traders remain hopeful the gasoil market would strengthen in coming months as COVID-19 vaccinations help governments lift mobility restrictions and industrial activities pick up more steam, while upcoming spring turnarounds at regional refineries would tighten supplies.

Cash differentials for 10 ppm gasoil were at a discount of 24 cents per barrel to Singapore quotes on Friday, compared with a discount of 19 cents per barrel on Thursday.

At the same time, gasoil stocks held independently in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub dropped 2.4% to 2.36 million tonnes in the week to March 18, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed. - The data showed ARA jet fuel inventories rose 2.3% to 986,000 tonnes.

As MRC informed previously, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
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CITGO refinery receives EPA certification

MOSCOW (MRC) -- CITGO Petroleum Corporation has announced its Corpus Christi Refinery has received the prestigious 2020 ENERGY STAR certification, awarded by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), for the second year in a row, reported Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The ENERGY STAR recognizes businesses for superior energy performance and for reflecting the compatibility of improving the environment while enhancing the corporate bottom line. This recognition distinguishes the Corpus Christi Refinery as a leader in energy and environmental management in the petroleum industry. The plant is the only petroleum refinery in the state of Texas recognized with the ENERGY STAR, and one of only eight refineries across the country to earn the award.

"The Corpus Christi Refinery is proud to have been awarded the 2020 ENERGY STAR," said Jim Cristman, Vice President and General Manager Corpus Christi Refinery. "This recognition highlights the commitment and persistence of all of our employees to produce our products safely, reliably, and with respect to our environment and the community in which we work and live."

"CITGO is dedicated to operating our business safely and serving as good guardians of our natural resources. The 2020 ENERGY STAR represents the Corpus Christi plant's refinery-wide commitment to environmental stewardship, and each and every plant employee should feel proud of this great achievement," said Carlos Jorda, president and CEO, CITGO Petroleum Corporation.

This certification marks the second year in a row that a CITGO refinery won this award and reflects the company's drive to reduce emissions, increase efficiency, and achieve high environmental performance.

As MRC wrote before, in September 2020, Citgo Petroleum Corp said it did not plan to idle its 418,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Lake Charles, Louisiana, refinery damaged by Hurricane Laura. Rumors have circulated since Laura’s passage over the Lake Charles area on Aug. 27 that Citgo was considering shutting the refinery for an indefinite period because of the extent of the damage and continuing low demand for motor fuels in the COVID-19 pandemic.

We remind that in the first week of July, 2020, Citgo restarted the large gasoline-producing fluid catalytic cracker at its 167,500-barrel-per-day (bpd) Corpus Christi, Texas, refinery.

Propylene is the main feedstock for the production of polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 1 240,000 tonnes in 2020 (calculated using the formula: production, minus exports, plus imports, excluding producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply of exclusively PP random copolymer increased.
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US renewable fuel credits hit multi-year record

MOSCOW (MRC) -- US renewable fuel credits hit fresh multi-year highs this week, while an oil refining trade group urged the Biden administration to use its authority to help stabilize the market, reported Reuters.

Prices for so-called Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs, have climbed all year as costs for feedstocks such as soybean oil increase and as market participants bet on reduced exemptions granted to oil refiners that would waive them from US biofuel blending requirements.

Under the US Renewable Fuel Standard, refiners must blend billions of gallons of biofuels into their fuel mix, or buy tradable RINs from those that do. Refiners can apply for exemptions if they can prove the requirements do them harm.

The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers group argued in a letter dated Monday to the Environmental Protection Agency that uncertainty around blending obligations for 2021 - which have been delayed since a Nov. 30 deadline - have contributed to rising RIN costs.

The group said high RIN prices were threatening the viability of refiners already devastated by the coronavirus pandemic's effect on fuel demand.

Renewable fuel (D6) credits for 2021 traded at USD1.43 each on Monday, highest since at least 2013, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. Biomass-based (D4) credits traded at USD1.50 each, highest since at least 2014. They were both slightly lower, at USD1.41 and USD1.48, respectively on Tuesday.

AFPM has previously argued that small refineries generally cannot blend renewable fuels themselves and have to purchase RINs in the spot market. Still, EPA said in a 2017 document that obligated parties, including small entities, generally recover the cost of acquiring RINs through higher sales prices of products they sell.

"We have to admit the possibility that the world changed a lot and maybe it's been harder to pass through with the demand reductions we've seen ... but until I see concrete evidence of that, the best evidence we have is pre-pandemic studies," said Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois.

In its letter, AFPM also asked EPA to finalize proposed extended compliance deadlines for the RFS, and urged the agency to consider the demand destruction from the pandemic as it decides blending requirements for 2021.

As MRC informed earlier, in January 2021, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted three waivers to oil refiners that exempt them from US biofuel blending obligations, a last-minute move before President Donald Trump left office. The agency granted two waivers for the 2019 compliance year and one waiver for the 2018 compliance year. The announcement followed four years of controversy around the waiver program under the Trump administration, but left many questions unresolved. Some 30 waiver requests remain outstanding for 2019 and 15 for 2020, which the incoming administration of Joe Biden will need to deal with.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

COVID-19 pandemic had piled further pressure on cities to reduce pollution and shift to using clean energy

MOSCOW (MRC) -- More than 1,300 cities had set targets or introduced policies to boost renewable energy by the end of 2020, while those enforcing complete or partial bans on fossil fuels like diesel and gas increased fivefold to 43, said Reuters.

The number of cities working to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy surged in 2020, representing a quarter of the world’s urban population, or one billion people. Cities account for 55% of the global population yet use around three-quarters of energy and are responsible for about 75% of carbon dioxide emissions, it noted.

As national governments prepare for the COP26 U.N. climate conference in Glasgow in November, calls are growing for much steeper emissions cuts to meet global climate goals, including by municipal authorities. “Cities have a major role to play when it comes to driving the energy transition in all sectors,” REN21’s executive director Rana Adib told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. She said the COVID-19 pandemic had piled further pressure on cities to reduce pollution and shift to using clean energy, as it placed residents’ health at the centre of the public debate.

Actions taken by cities have included setting time-bound targets to raise the share of their energy produced from renewable sources, such as solar and wind power. They have also introduced regulations and incentives to encourage the uptake of renewables in power, transport, heating and cooling. The report found most of these efforts were concentrated in North America and Europe, but there were examples of progress worldwide, with about 830 cities in 72 countries setting renewable energy targets for at least one sector.

Cities are increasingly proposing and passing partial or complete fossil-fuel bans for heating, cooling and transport, with their number rising to more than 60 in 2020, including those that have yet to come into effect, the report said. Thirty-five are in California, where several cities - starting with Berkeley in 2019 - have forbidden the use of natural gas in new residential buildings.

During January, chemical production grew across all regions. Headline global production was up 9.5% year-over-year (Y/Y) on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. Global output stood at 129.0% of its average 2012 levels. Output was down a year ago due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We remind that Russia's output of chemical products rose in November 2020 by 9.5% year on year. At the same time, production of basic chemicals increased in the first eleven months of 2020 by 6.6% year on year, according to Rosstat's data. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, polymers in primary form accounted for the greatest increase in the January-November 2020 output. November production of polymers in primary form rose to 896,000 tonnes from 852,000 tonnes in October. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 9,240,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 17.1% year on year.
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