US renewable fuel credits hit multi-year record

MOSCOW (MRC) -- US renewable fuel credits hit fresh multi-year highs this week, while an oil refining trade group urged the Biden administration to use its authority to help stabilize the market, reported Reuters.

Prices for so-called Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs, have climbed all year as costs for feedstocks such as soybean oil increase and as market participants bet on reduced exemptions granted to oil refiners that would waive them from US biofuel blending requirements.

Under the US Renewable Fuel Standard, refiners must blend billions of gallons of biofuels into their fuel mix, or buy tradable RINs from those that do. Refiners can apply for exemptions if they can prove the requirements do them harm.

The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers group argued in a letter dated Monday to the Environmental Protection Agency that uncertainty around blending obligations for 2021 - which have been delayed since a Nov. 30 deadline - have contributed to rising RIN costs.

The group said high RIN prices were threatening the viability of refiners already devastated by the coronavirus pandemic's effect on fuel demand.

Renewable fuel (D6) credits for 2021 traded at USD1.43 each on Monday, highest since at least 2013, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. Biomass-based (D4) credits traded at USD1.50 each, highest since at least 2014. They were both slightly lower, at USD1.41 and USD1.48, respectively on Tuesday.

AFPM has previously argued that small refineries generally cannot blend renewable fuels themselves and have to purchase RINs in the spot market. Still, EPA said in a 2017 document that obligated parties, including small entities, generally recover the cost of acquiring RINs through higher sales prices of products they sell.

"We have to admit the possibility that the world changed a lot and maybe it's been harder to pass through with the demand reductions we've seen ... but until I see concrete evidence of that, the best evidence we have is pre-pandemic studies," said Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois.

In its letter, AFPM also asked EPA to finalize proposed extended compliance deadlines for the RFS, and urged the agency to consider the demand destruction from the pandemic as it decides blending requirements for 2021.

As MRC informed earlier, in January 2021, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted three waivers to oil refiners that exempt them from US biofuel blending obligations, a last-minute move before President Donald Trump left office. The agency granted two waivers for the 2019 compliance year and one waiver for the 2018 compliance year. The announcement followed four years of controversy around the waiver program under the Trump administration, but left many questions unresolved. Some 30 waiver requests remain outstanding for 2019 and 15 for 2020, which the incoming administration of Joe Biden will need to deal with.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

COVID-19 pandemic had piled further pressure on cities to reduce pollution and shift to using clean energy

MOSCOW (MRC) -- More than 1,300 cities had set targets or introduced policies to boost renewable energy by the end of 2020, while those enforcing complete or partial bans on fossil fuels like diesel and gas increased fivefold to 43, said Reuters.

The number of cities working to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy surged in 2020, representing a quarter of the world’s urban population, or one billion people. Cities account for 55% of the global population yet use around three-quarters of energy and are responsible for about 75% of carbon dioxide emissions, it noted.

As national governments prepare for the COP26 U.N. climate conference in Glasgow in November, calls are growing for much steeper emissions cuts to meet global climate goals, including by municipal authorities. “Cities have a major role to play when it comes to driving the energy transition in all sectors,” REN21’s executive director Rana Adib told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. She said the COVID-19 pandemic had piled further pressure on cities to reduce pollution and shift to using clean energy, as it placed residents’ health at the centre of the public debate.

Actions taken by cities have included setting time-bound targets to raise the share of their energy produced from renewable sources, such as solar and wind power. They have also introduced regulations and incentives to encourage the uptake of renewables in power, transport, heating and cooling. The report found most of these efforts were concentrated in North America and Europe, but there were examples of progress worldwide, with about 830 cities in 72 countries setting renewable energy targets for at least one sector.

Cities are increasingly proposing and passing partial or complete fossil-fuel bans for heating, cooling and transport, with their number rising to more than 60 in 2020, including those that have yet to come into effect, the report said. Thirty-five are in California, where several cities - starting with Berkeley in 2019 - have forbidden the use of natural gas in new residential buildings.

During January, chemical production grew across all regions. Headline global production was up 9.5% year-over-year (Y/Y) on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. Global output stood at 129.0% of its average 2012 levels. Output was down a year ago due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We remind that Russia's output of chemical products rose in November 2020 by 9.5% year on year. At the same time, production of basic chemicals increased in the first eleven months of 2020 by 6.6% year on year, according to Rosstat's data. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, polymers in primary form accounted for the greatest increase in the January-November 2020 output. November production of polymers in primary form rose to 896,000 tonnes from 852,000 tonnes in October. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 9,240,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 17.1% year on year.
MRC

IRPC and PTT will form nonwovens company

MOSCOW (MRC) -- IRPC Public Company Limited (IRPC) approved an investment in Innopolymed Company Limited to be jointly held by the company and Innobic (Asia) Company Limited, a subsidiary of PTT Public Company Limited (PTT), said the company.

IRPC and Innobic (Asia) Company Limited will hold the shares equivalent to 60% and 40%, respectively. The registered capital will be 260 million baht.

Innopolymed operates in non-woven fabric as well as medical consumables businesses. Besides, Innopolymed Company Limited is targeted to complete the company registration in 2Q2021 and start commercial operation in 4Q2021.

As it was written earlier, PTT Group's IRPC Plc is preparing for a series of speciality polymer products in the energy and medical fields to strengthen its business. The company plans to boost its revenue in 2021. IRPC recorded a loss of Baht 1.17 bn and Baht 6.15 bn in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

Chinese target for carbon neutrality by 2060 can complement energy security and economic goals

MOSCOW (MRC) -- China’s march towards carbon neutrality by 2060 can complement both energy security and economic goals, according to Hydrocarbonprocessing with reference to Wood Mackenzie’s latest report.

Faced with a fractured global trading system, China’s leadership has responded with ‘dual circulation’, an economic manifesto focusing on more secure supply chains, growing the domestic market, and improving export competitiveness.

At the same time, pressured by global climate change movement and escalating domestic pollution woes, the country announced its carbon neutrality goal by 2060 in September last year.

Wood Mackenzie research director Miaoru Huang said: “When President Xi Jinping announced the country’s carbon neutrality goal, he was not simply saying that China would adjust its energy mix to reduce emissions. He was giving notice of the complete transformation of its economy and how it produces, transports, and consumes energy.

Wood Mackenzie senior economist Yanting Zhou said: “Carbon neutrality aligns closely with the ‘dual circulation’ goals of increased capital efficiency and greater self-reliance through dominance of clean-energy resources and the technologies that will also drive large-scale domestic manufacturing. It aims to ensure that the energy transition is stamped ‘Made in China’.”

On its current trajectory (not accounting for carbon neutrality), China’s oil-import dependency would exceed 80% by 2030, while half of its natural gas supply would be imported. However, the pursuit of carbon neutrality halves China’s oil demand by 2040 compared with Wood Mackenzie’s base case, with demand almost eliminated by 2050.

China will need a 75% increase in electricity demand to meet its carbon-neutral goal, compared to Wood Mackenzie’s base case, to replace fossil fuels. That equates to a staggering USD6.4 trillion investment in new power generation capacity. Nuclear power will have a role to play but growth will primarily come from solar, wind and storage.

Building the production capacity is the easy partvfor China. The country is already the world’s largest producer of wind turbines and dominates global solar module production, with around two-thirds of photovoltaic panels produced domestically. In addition, Chinese manufacturers own significant capacity overseas.

China also leads the supply and processing of most of the raw materials needed for batteries and other zero-carbon technologies. Three-quarters of global lithium-ion battery production, half of the world’s electric vehicles and almost 70% of all solar panels are made in China. Zhou said: “The difficult part is ensuring a secure and competitive supply of raw materials for this growth. This includes the five essential metals - copper, aluminium, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Most notably, China’s dependence on foreign miners for its copper supply is a major concern. This has fuelled the country’s determination to seek greater control of other raw materials.”

Zhou added: “If China can replicate its current global market share in battery and solar-panel production across the entire future value chain of clean energy, it would transform global energy supply, trade and industry.

As MRC informed earlier, China's daily refinery throughput rose 15% in the first two months of the year, from a low base a year earlier, as fuel demand remains solid and refineries rush to hike production ahead of maintenance season. Refinery processing reached 114.24 million tonnes in the January-February period, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday, equivalent to about 14.13 million barrels per day (bpd). The agency didn't disclose numbers for January and February separately.

We remind that in early December 2020, Sinopec’s board approved plans to build a 1.2-million metric tons per annum ethylene plant and downstream units in the Nangang area of the port of Tianjin, China. Sinopec estimates the cost of the project at 28.8 billion renminbi (USD4.4 billion).

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 241,030 tonnes in January 2021 versus 217,890 tonnes a year earlier. Only shipments of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) increased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 141,870 tonnes in January 2021 versus 123,520 tonnes a year earlier. Supply of homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers increased.
MRC

Demand for gasoline may not return to pre-pandemic levels

MOSCOW (MRC) - Gasoline demand may never recover to pre-pandemic levels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, with increased use in developing countries offset by rising fuel efficiency and a switch to electric vehicles in wealthy nations, Reuters.

In last year's five-year outlook before the COVID-19 pandemic's full force was felt in Western countries, the IEA said that gasoline demand was approaching a plateau and kept its demand outlook figure steady from 2024 to 2025.

However, remote working during the pandemic has helped to hollow out demand, the IEA said on Wednesday, and commuting is likely to remain curtailed in 2021 and in the coming years.

"Global gasoline consumption is unlikely to ever return to its 2019 level," the IEA said on Wednesday in its Oil 2021 five-year outlook. "Strong growth in developing countries is no longer enough to offset declines within the OECD, where fuel efficiency improvements are making an impact.

"Consumption should continue to rise strongly in 2022 ... narrowing the gap with pre-pandemic levels. However, beyond that, gasoline demand is likely to stagnate for several years."

As it was earlier written, hopes of a speedy aviation recovery this year have been knocked back by global travel restrictions after the emergence of new coronavirus variants and a slower than expected vaccination rollout, dimming the outlook for jet fuel demand and oil prices.

During January, chemical production grew across all regions. Headline global production was up 9.5% year-over-year (Y/Y) on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. Global output stood at 129.0% of its average 2012 levels. Output was down a year ago due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We remind that Russia's output of chemical products rose in November 2020 by 9.5% year on year. At the same time, production of basic chemicals increased in the first eleven months of 2020 by 6.6% year on year, according to Rosstat's data. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, polymers in primary form accounted for the greatest increase in the January-November 2020 output. November production of polymers in primary form rose to 896,000 tonnes from 852,000 tonnes in October. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 9,240,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 17.1% year on year.
MRC