COVID-19 - News digest as of 19.01.2021

1.Chemical shipments fall 8.9% at Port of Antwerp in 2020

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Shipments of chemicals through the port of Antwerp, Belgium, declined 8.9% in 2020 compared to 2019, although no full-year chemical volumes total has been made available, said Chemweek. Annual liquid bulk volumes declined by 4.2% in total year on year (YOY) to 69 million metric tons (MMt) in 2020, with crude oil shipments plummeting 60% YOY due to reduced refining activities, says Port of Antwerp. Throughput of oil derivatives, however, recovered with growth of 3.4% despite an initial fall in demand due to the coronavirus pandemic and the sharp drop in oil prices, it says. Fertilizer shipments also declined YOY, but no specific volume figure was given.



MRC

Global refinery throughput expected to rebound in 2021: IEA

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Global refinery throughput is expected to rebound by 4.5 million b/d in 2021 after a 7.2 million b/d drop in 2020, reported S&P Global with reference to the International Energy Agency's statement Jan. 19.

IEA projects 78.9 million b/d throughput this year, versus 76.9 million b/d in 2020, when refinery rates were impacted by COVID-19.

Refinery runs rose 2.6 million b/d in November 2020 to 76.1 million b/d, "the largest monthly gain in seven years," according to the IEA, which attributed the increase to refineries returning "from peak maintenance."

The expected increase of run rates in 2021 will be lower than the 5.5 million b/d demand growth. However, the refined products stock overhang from last year, when demand dropped by 8.8 million b/d, may be carried this year due to the "relatively high proportion of LPG/ethane" in the demand growth.

The 2020 imbalance between the reduction of throughput and demand has resulted in "a large build in total product stocks."

The product stocks overhang, which was mostly an aftermath of refiners overproducing in April-May because of the "rapid fall of crude prices," is likely to act "as a constant brake on the recovery in refinery margins."

If crude markets tighten faster than products markets, refinery margins may fall in 2021 on average, the IEA said.

In December 2020, the picture was mixed as gains in crude prices were somewhat offset by "extreme winter weather in Europe and Asia," which supported heating fuel cracks.

Cold weather in Asia boosted demand for heating kerosene, which lent support to middle distillate cracks "across all regions."

However, the steeper crude prices and higher refinery runs drove fuel oil cracks lower.

US throughputs increased in December and early January but "are likely to stagnate until a stronger demand recovery takes hold" in the second quarter. For 2020, runs fell 2.3 million b/d, at par with the demand drop.

Last year had an "uneven impact" on European refineries, the IEA said, adding that only in Germany and the Netherlands throughputs were back in their seasonal range by the fourth quarter, "but remained significantly below the seasonal levels elsewhere."

The lowest capacity utilization was recorded in France, where it fell to 55% in 2020. Italy and Portugal also recorded utilization below 70%-64% and 66%, respectively.

With new COVID-19 restrictions taking place, first quarter runs are forecast to fall 1.1 million b/d in Europe.

In Japan, refinery runs started increasing in November and were up in December on seasonally stronger winter demand, but activity in South Korea "stagnated" in November when steam cracker maintenance affected demand for naphtha and refinery margins.

Runs increased in China by 400,000 b/d in 2020, "the lowest annual gain in four years, but an impressive result compared to declines elsewhere."

India's state-owned refineries that serve the domestic market were back to their year-earlier utilization whereas the export-oriented ones retained lower rates.

Runs in Saudi Arabia averaged 68% in 2020 but are expected to increase to 77% in 2021.

Russia's throughput was 320,000 b/d down in 2020, outpacing the 150,000 b/d demand decline.

As MRC wrote earlier, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
MRC

Crude rises as IEA expects lower OPEC+ production in 2021

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude prices rose Jan. 19 after data released by the International Energy Agency expected a 300,000 b/d drop for OPEC oil production in 2021 at 27.7 million b/d, and on favorable economic signals in the US and China, reported S&P Global.

At 12:29 pm London time (1229 GMT), the ICE March Brent contract was up 62 cents/b from the Jan. 18 settle at USD55.38/b while the NYMEX February light sweet crude contract was up 50 cents/b at US52.55/b.

IEA data released Jan. 19 also showed a 240,000 b/d reduction in its outlook for oil demand across 2021 at 5.5 million b/d, emphasizing the mixed fundamentals in the crude oil market.

"Despite rising COVID-19 cases, crude oil prices are well supported by financial, economic and market fundamentals," the IEA said.

The recovery picture in the crude oil market would likely continue to stay mixed, with bullish data pointing to both rising domestic demand for refined products as well as the potential for more supply to be offered to the wider global oil market. Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed that 7.3% more crude oil was imported in 2020 than in 2019, signaling a robust demand recovery in the country.

"There are bearish and bullish arguments. Almost every news can be interpreted in several different ways," said Eugen Weinberg, analyst at Commerzbank.

Crude oil prices also found some support from favorable US news, as Janet Yellen, US President-elect Joe Biden's nominee to run the Treasury Department, will tell the Senate Finance Committee later Jan. 19 that the US government must "act big" with its next coronavirus relief package. Biden had outlined a USD1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal in the week ended Jan. 16, stressing that a bold investment was needed to jump-start the economy and accelerate the distribution of vaccines.

Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at Axi, said oil remains resilient despite the mixed picture. "There are many Covid jitters out here, still Oil continues to hold and looks to nudge higher eying support from the weaker US dollar as oil sensitive currencies are showing the way."

As MRC informed previously, oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, according to an official with International Energy Agency's (IEA) statement.

We remind that the COVID-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented decline in demand affecting all sections of the Russian economy, which has impacted the demand for petrochemicals in the short-term. However, the pandemic triggered an increase in the demand for polymers in food packaging, and cleaning and hygiene products, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. With Russian petrochemical companies having the advantage of access to low-cost feedstock, and proximity to demand-rich Asian (primarily China) and European markets for the supply of petrochemical products, these companies appear to be well-positioned to derive full benefits from an improving market environment and global economy post-COVID-19, says GlobalData.

We also remind that in December 2020, Sibur, Gazprom Neft, and Uzbekneftegaz agreed to cooperate on potential investments in Uzbekistan including a major expansion of Uzbekneftegaz’s existing Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex (SGCC) and the proposed construction of a new gas chemicals facility. The signed cooperation agreement for the projects includes “the creation of a gas chemical complex using methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, and the expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex”.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia decreased in January-November 2020 by 17% year on year and reached 569,900 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the greatest reduction in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia increased by 21% year on year to about 202,000 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2020. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
MRC

PE imports to Ukraine down by 1% in 2020

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Overall polyethylene (PE) imports into the Ukrainian market reached 265,900 tonnes in 2020, down by 1% year on year. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounted for the main reduction in imports, according to MRC's DataScope report.

Last month's PE imports to Ukraine were 20,900 tonnes versus 20,200 tonnes in November, local companies increased their purchases of high density polyethylene (HDPE). Thus, overall PE imports exceeded 265,900 tonnes in January-December 2020, compared to 268,700 tonnes a year earlier. LLDPE imports decreased significantly, whereas HDPE imports increased.

The supply structure by PE grades looked the following way over the stated period.


Last month's HDPE imports were 8,700 tonnes, compared to 7,700 tonnes in November, Ukrainian companies raised their purchases of film grade PE. Overall HDPE imports totalled 97,300 tonnes in 2020 versus 95,000 tonnes a year earlier.

December imports of low density polyethylene (LDPE) into Ukraine were 6,100 tonnes versus 5,900 tonnes a month earlier. Overall LDPE imports reached 79,300 tonnes over the stated period, compared to 79,600 tonnes a year earlier.

Last month's LLDPE imports were 5,100 tonnes, compared to 5,600 tonnes in November, shipments of Middle Eastern film grade LLDPE decreased. Overall LLDPE imports reached 75,900 tonnes last year, compared to 81,700 a year earlier.

Imports of other PE grades, including ethylene-vinyl-acetate (EVA), totalled 13,400 tonnes over the stated period, compared to 12,500 tonnes a year earlier.

MRC

PVC imports to Ukraine fell by 32% in 2020, exports down by 5%

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Imports of suspension polyvinyl chloride (SPVC) into Ukraine slumped in 2020 by 32% year on year to 33,400 tonnes. Sales of Ukrainian polyvinyl chloride (PVC) to foreign markets dropped by 5% year on year in favour of the domestic market, according to a MRC's DataScope report.


Last month's SPVC imports into the Ukrainian market rose to 2,400 tonnes from 2,100 tonnes in November, shipments of resin from Europe increased. Overall imports of suspension reached 33,400 tonnes in 2020, compared to 49,000 tonnes a year earlier. At the same time, stronger demand from the domestic market amid the increased capacity utilisation of the Ukrainian producer led to lower export sales.

European producers with the share of about 83% of the total imports over the stated period were the key suppliers of resin to the Ukrainian market. Producers from the USA with the share of about 15% were the second largest suppliers.

Last month, Karpatneftekhim significantly increased sales in the foreign markets on the back of record high global prices, export sales of Ukrainian resin were 15,800 tonnes versus 3,200 tonnes in November. Overall, about 155,300 tonnes of PVC were shipped for export in 2020, compared to 163,300 tonnes a year earlier.

MRC