Saudi Aramco, SABIC to reassess plans for Yanbu crude to chemicals complex

MOSOW (MRC) -- Saudi Aramco and Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) have decided to reevaluate their crude-oil-to-chemicals project in Yanbu on the kingdom's west coast, reported S&P Global with reference to an Oct. 18 statement on the Tadawul stock exchange, as they slash spending due to low prices.

The USD20 billion project may be downsized to use Aramco's existing facilities in the port city, instead of building a new plant, the statement posted by SABIC said.

"Both parties intend to re-evaluate the scope of the crude-oil-to-chemicals (COTC) complex project and study the integration of Saudi Aramco's existing refineries in Yanbu with a world-scale mixed feed steam cracker and downstream olefin derivative units," the statement said.

The COTC project was announced in November 2017, before Aramco announced it intended to acquire a majority stake of SABIC. At the time, the project was intended to process 400,000 b/d of crude oil, to produce about 9 million mt/yr of chemicals and base oils, after entering commercial operation in 2025.

In 2018, the project management and front-end engineering contracts were awarded to Wood and KBR, respectively.

It was part of an ambitious downstream push by Aramco to double its crude processing capacity to create outlets for its crude oil. But Aramco, the world's biggest company, has been severely hit by the oil price downturn and diminishing demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

In August, Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest company, saw its profit crash by 73% in Q2 to Riyals 24.62 billion ($6.6 billion). It has announced drastic cutbacks in its capex program, as a result.

As MRC wrote befire, in June, Aramco said it had completed the share acquisition of a 70% stake in SABIC from the Public Investment Fund, the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia, for a total purchase price of Riyals 259.125 billion (USD69.1 billion). Combined, in 2019 Aramco and SABIC recorded petrochemicals production volume of nearly 90 million mt, including agri-nutrient and specialty products.

Aramco's Q3 results will be announced on Nov. 3.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,496,500 tonnes in the first eight months of 2020, up by 5% year on year. Shipments of all ethylene polymers increased, except for linear low desnity polyethylene (LLDPE). At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 767,2900 tonnes in the eight months of 2020 (calculated using the formula - production minus exports plus imports - and not counting producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply increased exclusively of PP random copolymer.
MRC

Siemens Energy and Bentley Systems introduce asset performance management solution for oil & gas operators

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Siemens Energy and Bentley Systems, Inc. (Bentley) have announced a joint solution that delivers intelligent analytics derived from domain experience to reduce operating expenditures associated with oil and gas assets, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The new service, known as Asset Performance Management for Oil & Gas, or APM4O&G, incorporates key complementary offerings from both companies to help operators enhance asset performance, eliminate downtime, and reduce maintenance costs. The APM4O&G solution combines Bentley’s advanced asset performance software capabilities (AssetWise) with Siemens Energy’s technology and service expertise to empower operators to improve maintenance operations and planning.

The solution, part of Siemens Energy’s Omnivise digital solutions portfolio, supports maintenance activities across several assets, including onshore compressor stations and gas processing plants, as well as offshore production platforms and floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessels.

The APM4O&G solution adopts smart, condition-based strategies based on predictive analytics to optimize maintenance schedules in compressor stations and gas processing plants, helping extend asset life and keeping maintenance costs down. Offshore, the solution helps operators reduce logistics costs associated with unplanned maintenance activities. Operators can also make the best use of limited laydown and storage areas offshore by holding just the right spare stock based on risk-based maintenance strategies.

In addition to monitoring assets, the APM4O&G Solution can run powerful diagnostics and risk analysis scenarios that further optimize plant uptime, including failure mode effect analysis, an operational health index of equipment, and a remaining useful life estimate for an individual component or a whole system.

“APM for oil and gas is the latest example of how our strategic alliance with Bentley is driving value for our customers,” said Laura Anderson, Head of Siemens Energy Services Controls & Digitalization business. “Through our combined offerings and expertise, the APM4O&G solution will help our customers manage maintenance costs, improve equipment reliability, minimize the risks of lost-time Incidents and serious injuries, and increase the performance and availability of their oil and gas production and processing infrastructure."

The introduction of the APM4O&G solution follows the successful launch of an APM solution for power plants, announced by Siemens Energy and Bentley Systems in 2018. “We’re excited to continue our strategic partnership with Siemens Energy to lower the risks and costs associated with maintaining the operations-critical infrastructure,” said Greg Bentley, CEO, Bentley. “Once again, our collaborative efforts, combined with advances in IoT, smart system diagnostics, and performance digital twins, are helping owner-operators reach new levels of efficiency and performance with their oil and gas assets."

As mRC informed earlier, Siemens Smart Infrastructure and WUN H2 GmbH signed a contract to build one of the largest hydrogen production plants in Germany. It will be built in Wunsiedel in the north of Bavaria. With a power intake of six megawatts in the initial development phase, the plant will run solely on renewable energy and will be CO2-free. The electrolysis plant from Siemens Energy will have the capacity to produce over 900 tons of hydrogen per year in this first phase. When fully expanded, it will be able to supply up to 2,000 tons. Groundbreaking is scheduled for the end of this year and commissioning at the end of 2021.

We remind that Russia's output of chemical products rose in August 2020 by 5% year on year. At the same time, production of basic chemicals increased year on year by 5.3% in the first eight months of 2020, according to Rosstat's data. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, polymers in primary form accounted for the greatest increase in the January-July output. August production of benzene fell to 102,000 tonnes from 95,300 tonnes a month earlier due to scheduled shutdowns for maintenance at several producers. Overall output of this product reached 918,300 tonnes over the stated period, down by 0.9% year on year.

At the same time, August production of primary polymers rose to 888,000 tonnes against 838,000 tonnes in July due to increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim, Stavrolen and Gazprom neftekhim Salavat. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 6,630,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 15.2% year on year.
MRC

China Sept refinery output eases from highs

China Sept refinery output eases from highs

MOSCOW (MRC) -- China’s crude oil throughput in September dipped from the heady levels of the previous two months, as refineries drew down bulging inventories of refined fuel, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The country processed 57.35 MM tons of crude oil last month, or 13.96 MMbpd, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That was up 1.3% from a year earlier, but just down from 14 MMbpd in August and a daily record set in June at 14.08 million bpd.

Total throughput during the first 9 months of 2020 reached 495.38 MM tons, or 13.2 MMbpd, up 2.9% from the same period in 2019. Refiners have been ramping up production to record rates since June, encouraged by healthy margins for processing cheap oil bought in March and April when prices were at their lowest in decades following the outbreak of the coronavirus. At the same time, they capped overseas shipments because of weak export margins.

Fuel demand in the world’s second-largest user has been quick to recover from the pandemic. Diesel demand was boosted by construction and trucking activity following government stimulus measures, while a steady rebound in new car sales has lifted gasoline.

A relative resurgence in travel during the Golden Week holiday at the start of October lifted gasoline and jet fuel use. Still, fuel output has outpaced demand growth, resulting in ballooning inventories.

The NBS data also showed China’s crude oil output in September at 16.1 MM tons, or about 3.92 MMbpd, up 2.4% from the same month a year earlier. Output for the first three quarters rose 1.7% on the year to 146.25 MM tons of crude oil.

Natural gas output last month gained 7.6% from a year earlier to 14.6 billion cubic meters (bcm), the bureau reported, with January-to-September production grew a robust 8.7% from a year earlier to 137.1 bcm.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall PE production totalled 1,712,400 tonnes in the first seven months of 2020, up by 58% year on year. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounted for the greatest increase in the output. At the same time, overall PP production in Russia increased in January-July 2020 by 24% year on year to 1,063,700 tonne. ZapSibNeftekhim accounted for the main increase in the output.
MRC

OPEC+ confronts bearish oil outlook, as talk of extending output cuts grows

MOSCOW (MRC) -- With the oil market's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic slower than hoped, some OPEC+ members are acknowledging that the alliance's production cuts may need to be extended, rather than eased as planned, at the end of the year, reported S&P Global.

A key OPEC+ monitoring committee is scheduled to meet Oct. 19. While delegates say they expect no decisions on the cuts to be made at the meeting, as the committee is only advisory, some say the bearish market outlooks can not be ignored.

"There is no recommendation, as of now" for any changes to the OPEC+ production cut accord, one delegate told S&P Global Platts on condition of anonymity. "But the trend of the (market) says to extend the cut."

The OPEC+ alliance is in the midst of a 7.7 million b/d production cut accord that is set to ease to 5.8 million b/d from January.

Many countries are reimposing travel restrictions and lockdown measures as COVID-19 cases rise again, which could depress oil demand. Libya's return to the market after a ceasefire between rival groups, where production could surge to 700,000 b/d by December from 300,000 b/d, according to the International Energy Agency, is also pressuring oil prices.

"We are on the course to recovery, but we have to be realistic that this recovery is not picking up pace at a rate that we earlier expected in the year," OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said Oct. 15 at the Energy Intelligence Forum. "Therefore, demand itself is still looking anemic."

Any change to the OPEC+ deal would need to be ratified unanimously by the 23-country coalition, whose next meeting is Nov. 30-Dec. 1.

Obtaining such approval could be politically tricky. Many members are already chafing at their production quotas and eager to pump more, as patience wears thin with oil prices mired in the low USD40s/b.

"The trend of the last three months is one of disappointment (for OPEC+), which brings into play, does it need another tweak or a postponement of those production increases?" Paul Horsnell, Standard Charter's global head of commodities, said at the Platts Middle East Executive Petroleum Conference on Oct. 12. "It's a difficult decision, to get back to the table and start arguing again. At this stage, it's too difficult to call."

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin held close consultations on the market on Oct. 14, stressing their support for the OPEC+ deal. As the two largest members of the OPEC+ coalition, Saudi and Russian officials often coordinate their positions ahead of key meetings, including the monthly monitoring committee sessions.

"Saudi and Russia are always in constant discussion on the market conditions," a source familiar with Saudi policy said, adding that a decision on the cuts would be based on how countries are implementing pandemic containment measures, whether global oil stocks are increasing or decreasing, and how customer orders for crude are shaping up for the months ahead.

"(OPEC+ members) see the orders come to them more than anybody else, so they know exactly if there's demand," the source said, asking not to be named.

Asked about what the OPEC+ alliance may decide in the months ahead, Barkindo only said: "A lot of variables may be reintroduced, but we will focus on how to best assist this market to accelerate the recovery to restore the stability, and also to sustain the stability...Whatever decision that will be taken is to ensure that the recovery in 2021 will be at a favorable pace, will gather momentum in this Q4 and will accelerate."

The sober mood was underscored by a delegate-level technical committee meeting earlier Oct. 15, where OPEC analysts said that "risks to the world economy and oil demand growth are skewed to the downside," according to a presentation seen by Platts.

OPEC is expecting global oil demand recovery of 6 million-7 million b/d in 2021, on the back of a GDP rebound of 4.7%, Barkindo told the Energy Intelligence Forum.

The organization's analysts have pegged 2020 oil demand at 90.29 million b/d, rising to 96.84 million b/d in 2021, according to its latest monthly oil market report.

OPEC+ compliance with its quotas stood at 102% in September, up from 101% in August, the technical committee found.

But the so-called "compensation cuts" owed by 13 OPEC+ producers that previously violated their quota levels remain scant, although Barkindo said this process was moving smoothly.

"We are now focused on making sure all countries that have a backlog of volumes make these cuts by December," he said.

Under the deal, members that pumped in excess of their quotas must compensate with extra cuts of equivalent volume by the end of the year. With the compensation cuts included, OPEC+ compliance drops to 97% for September, according to OPEC+ data seen by Platts.

As MRC informed previously, global oil demand may have already peaked, according to BP's latest long-term energy outlook, as the COVID-19 pandemic kicks the world economy onto a weaker growth trajectory and accelerates the shift to cleaner fuels.

Earlier this year, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

We remind that in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,496,500 tonnes in the first eight months of 2020, up by 5% year on year. Shipments of all ethylene polymers increased, except for linear low desnity polyethylene (LLDPE). At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market reached 767,2900 tonnes in the eight months of 2020 (calculated using the formula - production minus exports plus imports - and not counting producers' inventories as of 1 January, 2020). Supply increased exclusively of PP random copolymer.
MRC

Facing wave of closures, oil refiners turn to biofuels

MOSCOW (MRC) -- European and U.S. oil refineries face a wave of closures due to plateauing fuel demand, tightening environmental rules and overseas competition, prompting some owners to opt for an easier alternative - converting plants to produce biofuels, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The shock of the coronavirus epidemic crushed global oil demand and as some producers, including, say it might never recover to pre-crisis levels, the need to close refineries has accelerated. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a recent report that by 2030 around 14% of current refining capacity in advanced economies “faces the risk of lower utilization or closure."

That share could grow to 50% in 2040 under a more aggressive transition away from fossil fuels to electric vehicles, the IEA said. Shutting down refineries, some of which are 70 years old, is a costly process which requires dismantling heavy equipment and pipelines and remediating the land.

So owners are choosing alternative paths, including converting refinery sites to import terminals, putting them to other industrial uses or, in many cases, switching to cleaner biofuels by processing vegetable oil and waste oils. BP, Total and Eni, outlined in recent months plans to grow their biofuel capacities by two to five fold by 2030 while reducing their global oil refining footprints.

The switch is part of companies’ strategies to radically reshape and grow renewables and low-carbon businesses. Other European refiners including Repsol and independent Italian refiner Saras also plan to increase their capacity. Converting refineries to biofuels “makes a lot of sense,” said Rob Turner, partner at PWC specializing in the energy sector. "It allows plans to play a role in the energy transition, creates long-term value and mitigates the costs of a full shutdown and site cleanup."

Although refiners in other developed economies face a similar challenge, it is particularly difficult for Europe where local consumption has been in a steady decline and governments have accelerated efforts to curb carbon emissions. Already, three refineries in Europe have shut down in the wake of the coronavirus epidemic - Total’s Grandpuits plant in northern France, Neste’s Naantali plant in Finland and Gunvor’s Antwerp refinery. Total converted the La Mede refinery in southern France into a biodiesel plant in 2019.

Other refiners, whose profits have collapsed due to a sharp drop in demand due to the epidemic, are on the brink. Europe’s biofuel production capacity is expected to grow to around 8 MM tons per year from the current 3 MM tons per year, according to Barclays analyst Joshua Stone.

Finnish refiner Neste Oyj, which has invested heavily in renewables and has biofuel facilities in Europe and Singapore, has seen its shares soar in recent months while those of traditional refiners and energy companies dropped. Neste’s shares have gained over 55% so far this year while shares of Saras have tumbled 69%.

As MRC wrote before, on 15 October, The European Commissionadopted the EU's chemicals strategy for sustainability, describing it as the first step towards a zero-pollution ambition for a toxic-free environment announced in the European Green Deal.

We remind that Russia's output of chemical products rose in August 2020 by 5% year on year. At the same time, production of basic chemicals increased year on year by 5.3% in the first eight months of 2020, according to Rosstat's data. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, polymers in primary form accounted for the greatest increase in the January-July output. August production of benzene fell to 102,000 tonnes from 95,300 tonnes a month earlier due to scheduled shutdowns for maintenance at several producers. Overall output of this product reached 918,300 tonnes over the stated period, down by 0.9% year on year.

At the same time, August production of primary polymers rose to 888,000 tonnes against 838,000 tonnes in July due to increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim, Stavrolen and Gazprom neftekhim Salavat. Overall output of polymers in primary form totalled 6,630,000 tonnes over the stated period, up by 15.2% year on year.
MRC