Fossil fuel demand to take historic knock amid COVID-19 scars

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Fossil fuel consumption is set to shrink for the first time in modern history as climate policies boost renewable energy and the coronavirus epidemic leaves a lasting effect on global energy demand, BP said in a forecast, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

BP's 2020 benchmark Energy Outlook underpins Chief Executive Bernard Looney's new strategy to "reinvent" the 111-year old oil and gas company by shifting renewables and power. London-based BP expects global economic activity to only partially recover from the epidemic over the next few years as travel restrictions ease. But some "scarring effects" such as work from home will lead to slower growth in energy consumption.

BP this year extended its outlook into 2050 to align it with the company's strategy to slash the carbon emissions from its operations to net zero by the middle of the century. It includes three scenarios that assume different levels of government policies aimed at meeting the 2015 Paris climate agreement to limit global warming to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.

Under its central scenario, BP forecasts COVID-19 will knock around 3 MM barrels per day (bpd) off by 2025 and 2 MM bpd by 2050. In its two aggressive scenarios, COVID-19 accelerates the slow down in oil consumption, leading to it peaking last year. In the third scenario, oil demand peaks at around 2030. In the longer term, demand for coal, oil and natural gas is set to slow dramatically.

While the share of fuels has shrunk in the past as a percentage of the total energy pie, their consumption has never contracted in absolute terms, BP chief economist Spencer Dale told reporters. "(The energy transition) would be an unprecedented event," Dale said. "Never in modern history has the demand for any traded fuel declined in absolute terms." At the same time, "the share of renewable energy grows more quickly than any fuel ever seen in history."

Under BP's central Rapid scenario, non-fossil fuels account for the majority of global energy sources from the early 2040s onward, with the share of hydrocarbons falling by more than half over the next 30 years. Even with energy demand set to expand on the back of growing population and emerging economies, the sources of energy will shift dramatically to renewable sources such as wind and solar, Dale said.

The share of fossil fuels is set to decline from 85% of total primary energy demand in 2018 to between 20% and 65% by 2050 in the three scenarios. At the same time, the share of renewables is set to grow from 5% in 2018 to up to 60% by 2050.

In its forecast, BP said the growth in global economic activity slows "considerably" over the next 30 years from its past 20-year average, due in part to lasting effects of the epidemic as well as the worsening impact of climate change on economic activity, particularly in Africa and Latin America. BP started a three-day investor event, beginning Monday, where it will details its energy transition strategy.

Earlier this year, as MRC wrote previously, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

And in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia dropped in January-June 2020 by 7% year on year to 328,000 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the main decrease in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia rose in the first six months of 2020 by 21% year on year to 105,300 tonnes. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
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Saudi King Salman, Putin express 'satisfaction' with OPEC+

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and Russian President Vladimir Putin both expressed "satisfaction" with the implementation of the OPEC+ crude oil output deal and discussed ways to address the global economic slump in a telephone call Sept. 7, according to a statement posted on the Kremlin website, said S&P Global.

The call was initiated by King Salman and comes ahead of a key OPEC+ joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting on Sept. 17, which is expected again to focus on compliance. The JMMC is co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

"Both sides expressed satisfaction with the progress of the implementation of the OPEC+ agreement, which made it possible to stabilize the situation on the world energy markets in general," the statement said. Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to further closely coordinate their work on production cuts, trade and investments.

Saudi and Russian leaders have also discussed joint ways to overcome negative consequences of the coronavirus pandemic on the world economy and finances, the statement said.

Earlier in the day, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said that Russia's adherence to production cuts in August was "close to 100%."

Earlier this year, as MRC wrote previously, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

And in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia dropped in January-June 2020 by 7% year on year to 328,000 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the main decrease in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia rose in the first six months of 2020 by 21% year on year to 105,300 tonnes. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

MRC

COVID-19 - News digest as of 15.09.2020

1. Euro Chlor launches strategy for chlor-alkali industry sustainable future in Europe

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Euro Chlor (Brussels, Belgium), the European association of chlor-alkali manufacturers, has released its latest strategy for the sustainability of the chlor-alkali industry to 2050, said Chemweek. The strategy, released at the association’s annual general assembly on Friday, “defines what the sector aims to look like by 2050, as well as the direction planned to ensure that this safe, competitive, and green European chlor-alkali industry will be here for the benefit of Europe in 2050,” it says. The work on the strategy began in the run up to Euro Chlor’s third 10-year Sustainability Program covering 2021-2030, and builds on Cefic’s own mid-century vision, released last year. Euro Chlor is a sector group within Cefic, the European chemical industry association. The 2050 strategy also addresses some future needs of European society in the context of the EU’s Green Deal, it says.

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AkzoNobel receives Boeing approval for color blending in China

MOSCOW (MRC) -- AkzoNobel’s aerospace coatings facility in Dongguan, China, has been qualified by aircraft manufacturer Boeing to color blend the company’s Aerodur 3001 basecoat, said Chemweek.

The certification means the site has been certified by Boeing to blend AkzoNobel’s industry-leading basecoat/clearcoat system, Aerodur 3001/3002, locally in China with OEM (original equipment manufacturer) approval. The Dongguan facility is also now listed on Boeing’s official QPL for BMS10-72 specification.

QPL approval status is an important milestone for the facility, which opened in 2017 to specifically serve the North and South Asian aviation market and deliver cutting-edge technologies faster and more reliably. “We’re proud to receive this certification from Boeing,” says Ron Fattal, AkzoNobel’s Key Account Manager for Boeing. “It’s further recognition of our commitment to putting the needs of our customers at the heart of our product development."

One of the key benefits of the innovative basecoat/clearcoat system is that it dries faster and retains its color and gloss significantly longer than single stage coatings. It also offers superior chemical and stain resistance, flexibility and weathering performance. “Our customers demand the best in terms of both performance and aesthetics,” continues Fattal. “Receiving industry approval of this caliber shows how dedicated we are to putting our customers and their needs first."

The Dongguan site has been open since December 2001, with the Aerospace Coatings facility being added as an expansion in early 2017.

As MRC informed earlier, BASF would expand the capacity of ethylene oxide and ethylene oxide derivatives at its Verbund site in Antwerp, Belgium. The total investment adds about 400 000 tpy to BASF’s production capacity for the corresponding products with an expected investment amount exceeding EUR500 million.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia dropped in January-June 2020 by 7% year on year to 328,000 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the main decrease in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia rose in the first six months of 2020 by 21% year on year to 105,300 tonnes. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

Akzo Nobel N.V., trading as AkzoNobel, is a Dutch multinational, active in the fields of decorative paints, performance coatings and specialty chemicals. Headquartered in Amsterdam, the company has activities in more than 80 countries, and employs approximately 55,000 people. Established in 1992 and specializing in sustainable water-based and advanced eco-friendly products, Mapaero operates a production facility in France and has around 140 employees.
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Mitsui Chemicals, Nagaoka University of Technology launch joint research to develop plastic waste recycling

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. (Tokyo) announced that it has launched a joint research project in pursuit of innovative technology to promote the recycling of plastic waste, working here with Professor TAKAHASHI Tsutomu, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Nagaoka University of Technology, National University Corporation, said Chemweek.

Plastic waste often includes varying states of the material, meaning that when heat is applied for material recycling, the melted plastic is uneven in terms of fluidity. This in turn results in the regenerated plastic itself being unable to maintain a consistent level of fluidity or quality, limiting its range of possible applications. But with this new joint development project, Mitsui Chemicals aims over the course of the next three years to develop technology that will facilitate in-line measurement and control for the melted plastic's fluidity, which will in turn help to stabilize the quality of the regenerated plastic.

Having established the Corporate Sustainability Division in April 2018, Mitsui Chemicals has been proactive in incorporating corporate sustainability factors into its management and strategies. In this manner, Mitsui Chemicals is working to reform its business models in ways that will help to realize a cohesive society in harmony with the environment, as well as health and well-being in an aging society.

Further, in March 2019, Mitsui Chemicals opened the Design & Solution Center in Niigata Prefecture. By accessing the product development capabilities of domestic affiliate Kyowa Industrial Co., Ltd. - a manufacturer of injection molds - and using these to offer solutions, the aim here is to continually create social value.

Nagaoka University of Technology, meanwhile, was designated in 2018 as the world's Academic Impact hub for Goal 9 - Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure - of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Hub universities are tasked with leading the way in SDG-related initiatives, with only one university around the world being selected for each goal. An early mover for bringing about a more sustainable world, Nagaoka University of Technology is highly regarded by the UN as a model university for its innovative SDG-related efforts, and is the only East Asian university to be selected as a hub for any of the goals.

As MRC informed before, the company last conducted a turnaround at this cracker from mid-June, 2018, to 11-22 August, 2018.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall PE production totalled 1,712,400 tonnes in the first seven months of 2020, up by 58% year on year. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounted for the greatest increase in the output. At the same time, overall PP production in Russia increased in January-July 2020 by 24% year on year to 1,063,700 tonne. ZapSibNeftekhim accounted for the main increase in the output.

Mitsui Chemicals is a leading manufacturer and supplier of value added specialty chemicals, plastics and materials for the automotive, healthcare, packaging, agricultural, building, and semiconductor and electronics markets. Mitsui Chemicals is a Japanese Chemicals company, a part of the Mitsui conglomerate. The company has a turnover of around 15 billion USD and has business interests in Japan, Europe, China, Southeast Asia and the USA. The company mainly deals in performance materials, petro and basic chemicals and functional polymeric materials.
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