Shell Wetselaar says not bullish on near-term gas prices, oil prices at artificial levels

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The head of Shell's global gas business said on Sept. 7 that he wasn't bullish on natural gas prices in the near term, oil prices were at artificial levels due to suppressed demand and supply, and there was still a difficult time ahead for the global economy due to the coronavirus pandemic, said S&P Global.

"I'm not a near-term bull. Clearly, you know, what happens tomorrow or next week is beyond my forecasting abilities. But I think there is still a difficult economic time ahead," Maarten Wetselaar, Shell's Integrated Gas & New Energies Director & Member of the Executive Committee, said.

"Looking on the oil side the pricing is at the moment rather artificial. There's a lot of suppressed demand and a lot of suppressed supply," he said, adding that it will be some time before the market can really be structurally bullish about energy prices.

Speaking at the opening session of the Gastech Virtual Summit, Wetselaar said getting a vaccine out, that works, to seven billion people has never been done before and will take some time. Because of the uncertainty, Shell was planning for resilience and for the impact of COVID-19 to last for longer. "Not that we want to, but we need to," he said.

Wetselaar denied that there were any regrets about Shell's $53 billion acquisition of BG Group a few years ago, given the growing resistance to fossil fuels and the impact of the pandemic that triggered billions of dollars of asset write downs, saying the deal was done taking into account the cyclical nature of the business.

He was also vocal about growing challenges for energy companies around methane emissions and how many were failing to recognize the challenge this will pose in future. "We've made a lot of progress," Wetselaar said. "Other companies have also signed up to [emissions] targets and are making real progress. [But] in the global gas industry we're not even halfway there."

"If people don't want to attack their methane emissions because they simply don't believe in the urgency, they should get ready for radical transparency because it won't be long before satellites can measure the methane leaks and emissions from operational assets," he said. "And then it doesn't matter what you put in your annual report anymore and the whole world will be able to see what you do. So I do think the industry is not yet at the level of urgency that we want."

As MRC reported earlier Shell will announce a major restructure by the end of the year as the company prepares to accelerate its shift toward its net-zero emissions goal by 2050, said CEO Ben van Beurden to employees. The restructuring will include workforce reductions as part of broader cost-cutting measures, although no figures have been decided yet, the CEO reportedly said during an internal webcast.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia dropped in January-June 2020 by 7% year on year to 328,000 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the main decrease in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia rose in the first six months of 2020 by 21% year on year to 105,300 tonnes. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.

Royal Dutch Shell plc is an Anglo-Dutch multinational oil and gas company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands and with its registered office in London, United Kingdom. It is the biggest company in the world in terms of revenue and one of the six oil and gas "supermajors". Shell is vertically integrated and is active in every area of the oil and gas industry, including exploration and production, refining, distribution and marketing, petrochemicals, power generation and trading.
MRC

Offshore oil wells, ports shut as U.S. Gulf Coast storm advances

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Energy companies, ports and refiners race to complete shutdowns as Tropical Storm Sally bores in on the central U.S. Gulf Coast with expectations that it will soon become a hurricane, said Reuters.

The storm will disrupt oil imports and exports as the nation's sole offshore terminal, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, stopped loading and offloading tanker ships on Sunday and as the port of New Orleans closes. Numerous offshore production facilities are shutting just a few weeks after Hurricane Laura forced roughly 1.5 MM barrels per day (bpd) of output to close.

Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico before becoming a hurricane as it heads toward southeastern Louisiana and western Mississippi, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. Officials in the two states issued mandatory evacuations for residents in low-lying areas.

The U.S. Coast Guard said all southbound vessel traffic from the port of New Orleans would be brought to a halt at noon CDT (1700 GMT) on Monday and stop all traffic from the port at 6 p.m. CDT (2300 GMT).

Chevron Corp, BP Plc, Chevron, Equinor and Murphy Oil all evacuated some offshore workers from production platforms, the companies reported. Royal Dutch Shell Plc curtailed production at its Olympus, Mars and Appomattox platforms on Monday, the company said.

U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore oil production delivers about 17% of U.S. crude oil and 5% of U.S. natural gas output.

The port of New Orleans and LOOP combined exported about 307,000 bpd of crude and 411,000 bpd of refined products and imported about 342,000 bpd in crude volumes in the three months through August, according to Kpler data.

Refiners in the region have also begun to wind down operations. Shell cut production to minimum rates on Monday at its 227,400 bpd Norco, Louisiana, refinery, including idling the refinery's crude distillation unit, said sources familiar with plant operations.

The Alliance oil refinery, which processes 255,000 bpd at a site on the coast of Louisiana, was shutting down, said operator Phillips 66.

Earlier this year, as MRC wrote previously, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

And in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia dropped in January-June 2020 by 7% year on year to 328,000 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the main decrease in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia rose in the first six months of 2020 by 21% year on year to 105,300 tonnes. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
MRC

Bayer extends CEO contract

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Bayer says that its supervisory board has unanimously decided to extend the contract of Werner Baumann, CEO and chairman of the management board at Bayer, until 30 April 2024, said Chemweek.

Baumann has been the company’s CEO and chairman since May 2016 and his contract was due to expire at the 2021 annual stockholders’ meeting.

The main issues that Baumann will have to deal with in the next three and a half years of his tenure include “overcoming the effects of the coronavirus crisis, setting the course for profitable growth after patent expirations for important products of the pharmaceuticals division, building on the leading position of the crop science business through innovation, digitalization, and sustainability, accelerating growth at consumer health, and systematically continuing the efficiency and structural programs," the company says.

Meanwhile, Bayer has announced that progress has been achieved with plaintiffs’ class counsel on a revised class plan to manage and resolve potential future Roundup claims. The details of the revised class plan will be finalized over the coming weeks and a motion for preliminary approval will be filed on completion of the formal agreement, the company says. Bayer says it will proceed on an accelerated basis to finalize the preliminary agreements to resolve the current cases and claims that were announced on 24 June, as long as resolution can be reached on reasonable financial terms and addresses current and potential future claims.

As MRC wrote before, Covestro has closed the sale of its European polycarbonates (PC) sheets business to the Munich-based Serafin Group effective January 2, 2020. This includes key management and sales functions throughout Europe as well as production sites in Belgium and Italy.

Covestro (formerly Bayer MaterialScience) is an independent subgroup within Bayer. It was created as part of the restructuring of Bayer AG from the former business group Bayer Polymers, with certain of its activities being spun off to Lanxess AG. Covestro manufactures and develops materials such as coatings, adhesives and sealants, polycarbonates (CDs, DVDs), polyurethanes (automotive seating, insulation for refrigerating appliances) etc.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's overall estimated consumption of PC granules totalled 47,300 tonnes in the first two quarters of 2020 (excluding imports and exports to/from Belarus), compared to 40,700 tonnes a year earlier. Demand increased by 16% year on year.
MRC

California, 19 other states, sue Trump admin for weakening methane rules

MOSCOW (MRC) -- California and 19 other states have filed a lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s decision to weaken curbs on methane emissions from the oil and gas industry, saying the widespread West Coast wildfires should be a reminder of the dangers posed by climate change, said Reuters.

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit California to be briefed about its devastating wildfires, while Democratic rival Joe Biden plans a speech on the matter from Delaware, bringing climate change to the forefront of the presidential campaign.

"Our climate emergency is increasingly a public health emergency. The toll of the natural disaster we face from unprecedented wildfires is increasingly measured in human life,” California Attorney General Xavier Becerra said in a statement announcing the lawsuit. “How many wake-up calls do our nation‘s leaders need to take climate action?"

The lawsuit targets two policy amendments announced by the Environmental Protection Agency in August that roll back methane emissions curbs on the oil and gas industry and weaken requirements for leak detection. Methane is many times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas when released unburned into the atmosphere.

The lawsuit is California’s 54th against the Trump administration to challenge rollbacks to key environmental protections. California is joined in the lawsuit by 19 other Democrat-led states, including rising oil and gas producer New Mexico, and four districts and municipalities.

Trump, a Republican who pulled the United States out of the Paris accord on global warming because he found it too costly, has made it a priority to boost the domestic drilling industry by slashing regulations. He has blamed poor forest management for the West Coast wildfires.

Democrats have said that climate change plays a role in the fires, and Biden has announced a plan to transition the United States away from fossil fuels to fight global warming.

Earlier this year, as MRC wrote previously, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

And in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia dropped in January-June 2020 by 7% year on year to 328,000 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the main decrease in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia rose in the first six months of 2020 by 21% year on year to 105,300 tonnes. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
MRC

Fossil fuel demand to take historic knock amid COVID-19 scars

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Fossil fuel consumption is set to shrink for the first time in modern history as climate policies boost renewable energy and the coronavirus epidemic leaves a lasting effect on global energy demand, BP said in a forecast, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

BP's 2020 benchmark Energy Outlook underpins Chief Executive Bernard Looney's new strategy to "reinvent" the 111-year old oil and gas company by shifting renewables and power. London-based BP expects global economic activity to only partially recover from the epidemic over the next few years as travel restrictions ease. But some "scarring effects" such as work from home will lead to slower growth in energy consumption.

BP this year extended its outlook into 2050 to align it with the company's strategy to slash the carbon emissions from its operations to net zero by the middle of the century. It includes three scenarios that assume different levels of government policies aimed at meeting the 2015 Paris climate agreement to limit global warming to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.

Under its central scenario, BP forecasts COVID-19 will knock around 3 MM barrels per day (bpd) off by 2025 and 2 MM bpd by 2050. In its two aggressive scenarios, COVID-19 accelerates the slow down in oil consumption, leading to it peaking last year. In the third scenario, oil demand peaks at around 2030. In the longer term, demand for coal, oil and natural gas is set to slow dramatically.

While the share of fuels has shrunk in the past as a percentage of the total energy pie, their consumption has never contracted in absolute terms, BP chief economist Spencer Dale told reporters. "(The energy transition) would be an unprecedented event," Dale said. "Never in modern history has the demand for any traded fuel declined in absolute terms." At the same time, "the share of renewable energy grows more quickly than any fuel ever seen in history."

Under BP's central Rapid scenario, non-fossil fuels account for the majority of global energy sources from the early 2040s onward, with the share of hydrocarbons falling by more than half over the next 30 years. Even with energy demand set to expand on the back of growing population and emerging economies, the sources of energy will shift dramatically to renewable sources such as wind and solar, Dale said.

The share of fossil fuels is set to decline from 85% of total primary energy demand in 2018 to between 20% and 65% by 2050 in the three scenarios. At the same time, the share of renewables is set to grow from 5% in 2018 to up to 60% by 2050.

In its forecast, BP said the growth in global economic activity slows "considerably" over the next 30 years from its past 20-year average, due in part to lasting effects of the epidemic as well as the worsening impact of climate change on economic activity, particularly in Africa and Latin America. BP started a three-day investor event, beginning Monday, where it will details its energy transition strategy.

Earlier this year, as MRC wrote previously, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent in 2020, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

And in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's DataScope report, PE imports to Russia dropped in January-June 2020 by 7% year on year to 328,000 tonnes. High density polyethylene (HDPE) accounted for the main decrease in imports. At the same time, PP imports into Russia rose in the first six months of 2020 by 21% year on year to 105,300 tonnes. Propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) accounted for the main increase in imports.
MRC