MOSCOW (MRC) -- On 9 April 2020, 23 member countries of OPEC+ discussed the economic recession caused by Covid-19 pandemic and agreed to cut oil production by 9.7 million bpd from 1 May 2020, in order to balance supply and demand on the global market, according to WorldPipelines.
The Republic of Azerbaijan, as a member of OPEC+, participated in the meeting and, along with other countries, committed voluntarily to production cuts in relevant proportions.
The Ministry of Energy, which represented Azerbaijan in the meeting, subsequently announced the terms of the agreement and the commitments undertaken by Azerbaijan. The Ministry proposed proportional sharing of the production cut quotas among the country’s oil producers. SOCAR, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, was ordered to carry out the implementation of the production cuts by the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
The OPEC+ agreement considers temporary implementation of production cuts in three stages: first during May and June 2020, second between July and December 2020, third between January 2021 and April 2022. It was agreed to reduce production at a higher rate in the first stage, and to gradually restore production levels in the following periods. According to the international agreement, daily production in Azerbaijan should not exceed 554 000 bbls in May and June 2020, 587 000 bbls in July - December 2020 and 620 000 bbls between January 2021 and April 2022. These figures are applied only to crude oil, but not to gas condensate production.
Hence, the daily oil production is expected to be reduced by 96 000 bbls in May - June 2020, by 63 000 bbls in July - December 2020 and by 30 000 bbls from January 2021 to April 2022, as compared to the initial national production plan for 2020.
SOCAR's Azneft Production Unit will initially reduce its daily production by 17 000 bbls to 100 000 bbls. In the following period, it will gradually increase its production adding 5000 bpd to total output. Beginning from next year, it plans to add 6000 bpd more to daily production, which would bring Azneft’s total crude oil production to 111 000 bpd.
Daily production on the Azeri-Chirag-Deepwater Gunashli fields is expected to be reduced by 76 000 bbls in May and June. During the second stage of agreement, the operator of the fields – Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC) – will be able to increase production by 27 000 bpd, adding 26 000 bpd in the next year. Thus, in 2021, the level of AIOC production is forecasted at 487 000 bpd.
Other operating companies will initially reduce their production by 3000 bpd and then increase it by 1000 bbls in July - December, adding 1000 bpd in the next year.
As a result of measures arising from the OPEC+ agreement, between the beginning of May and the end of December 2020 Azerbaijan's oil production will decrease by 17.4 million bbls, amounting to 141.8 million bbls in total. In 2021, the country's total crude oil production is forecasted at 30.7 million t or 226.3 million bbls. These figures do not include hydrocarbon production by the Shah Deniz consortium and the Umid Babek Operating Company, nor is the condensate production by SOCAR's Azneft PU and Bahar Energy Operating Company Limited included.
By the end of 2020, SOCAR's Azneft PU plans to suspend production at several oil and gas production facilities and conserve equipment in accordance with industrial requirements. The decision rationale for suspending particular fields is based on the assessment of field’s economic efficiency, technical sustainability, industrial safety and minimisation of negative impact on the environment.
The suspension of operations is envisaged to take place mainly on the onshore fields with high production costs, whilst the exploitation of offshore fields with higher profitability is going to resume.
SOCAR employees, who become unoccupied as a result of the temporary production cut, will be involved in the conservation of wells and equipment maintenance. Therefore, following the suspension of some fields, no massive staff reduction is currently expected. The unoccupied employees will be registered in the Employee Reserve Database (ERD). They will be directed to SOCAR’s other units and departments in accordance with due legal procedures. SOCAR is suspending the external recruitment of personnel in the areas, which can be occupied by the employees in the ERD. Other measures have been planned as well, such as reskilling the unoccupied workers at SOCAR’s professional training centres.
As MRC reported previously, SOCAR Polymer plans to reach the design load for low-pressure polyethylene (HDPE) no earlier than 2023. In 2019, SOCAR Polymer is expected to produce 48.2 thousand tons of low-pressure polyethylene and 110 thousand tons of polypropylene. In 2020, these indicators will amount to 97.4 and 140 thousand tons, respectively. In 2023, the company is expected to be able to reach its design targets and produce 120 thousand tons of polyethylene and 170 thousand tons of polypropylene. Thus, the production of HDPE relative to 2019 will grow by 2.5 times, polypropylene - by 54%.
Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).
According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 557,060 tonnes in the first three month of 2020, up by 7% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments rose because of the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. Demand for LDPE subsided. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market was 267,630 tonnes in January-March 2020, down 20% year on year. Homopolymer PP and PP block copolymers accounted for the main decrease in imports.