MOSCOW (MRC) --The US petrochemicals report examines the short-term trends in domestic consumption and production growth going into 2013, when the local market will feel the effects of the continued global economic slowdown and the eurozone debt crisis, as per Sbwire.
The performance of the US chemicals sector surprised to the upside in H212. Strong growth in the automotive and construction sectors was driven by rising activity in construction related resins, coatings, pigments and other chemicals. In terms of ethylene production, output in Q312 totalled 6.2mn tonnes, down 0.6% year-on-year but up 10.7% quarter-on-quarter.
Ethylene margins gained towards end-2012 due to a fall in ethane feedstock prices caused by longer supply, although this was partly undermined by weaker spot prices and lower cracker co-product values for chemicals such as propylene, butadiene and benzene. The fall in ethane costs filtered through to improved polyethylene (PE) margins.
As MRC wrote this week a number of US companies increased their prices of PE.
Over the long term, the proposed pace of growth in US ethylene capacity could lead to a bust after 2017, when ethylene capacity will total at least 32.8mn tonnes per annum (tpa) and could potentially top 40mn tpa. An increase in cracker capacity – by a third in 2016-2017, and by 50 %by 2020 based on currently confirmed plans – will cause regional and global shock-waves, particularly if it coincides with a downturn in the economic cycle.
US ethane-fed petrochemicals production can undercut naphtha-fed Latin American output and boost US participation in the regional market. As a result, US PE exports could exceed 40% of output by 2017, up from around 20% in 2012.
MRC